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Remaining strength of schedule for all 32 teams based on Vegas Super Bowl odds

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The remaining schedule could easily play a key role in determining which teams make it to the playoffs and which don't.

Las Vegas Mourns After Largest Mass Shooting In U.S. History Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Traditional strength of schedule calculations usually add up the previous year's record of a team’s 16 opponents to get a cumulative win percentage for all 16 opponents. That exercise can also be done mid-season using the current year's record to get a feel for the remaining strength of schedule (SOS) each team faces - which we did earlier this week when we published the mid-season strength of schedule for 2017 here on BTB.

In that mid-season SOS review, we saw that the Cowboys' 11 remaining opponents (counting division opponents twice) have a 32-30 W/L record so far this season, which translates to a SOS of .516 and gives the Cowboys the 13th “toughest” schedule of all NFL teams.

Another way to look at remaining SOS is to use the Vegas Super Bowl odds as a proxy for team strength. Odds aren't an exact science of course, but looking at odds has one distinct advantage vs looking at W/L records: Odds are an attempt at predicting future performance, while W/L records are simply a snapshot of past performance.

To calculate the odds-based remaining SOS, I used the latest, post-Week 6 Super Bowl odds from the Westgate Superbook and assigned each team points based on their Super Bowl odds.

The Patriots (4-1 odds) are currently favored to win Super Bowl LII, so they received one point. The Steelers (5-1), Chiefs (6-1), and Eagles (8-1) were assigned two, three, and four points respectively. The 49ers (2000-1) and Browns (9999-1) have the worst odds, and were assigned 31 and 32 points.

I then calculated the average points for each team's remaining schedule, with a lower number meaning a tougher schedule.

Using the odds-based method, the Falcons have the toughest remaining SOS. Their 11 remaining opponents (including a rematch with the Patriots, along with games against the Seahawks and Vikings, and two games each against the Panthers and Saints) show an average odds-based ranking of 11.2.

Here is what the remaining SOS based on Super Bowl odds looks like for all 32 teams entering Week 7. For your convenience, the table is sortable (just click on the blue column headers).

Remaining 2017 Strength Of Schedule By Team
Team Odds-based SOS Opp Win %
Atlanta Falcons 11.2 0.567
New York Jets 11.6 0.593
Oakland Raiders 12.1 0.589
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13.0 0.600
Dallas Cowboys 13.5 0.516
Miami Dolphins 13.5 0.581
Washington Redskins 13.9 0.475
New York Giants 14.0 0.536
Denver Broncos 14.3 0.571
Buffalo Bills 15.0 0.532
Chicago Bears 15.5 0.483
Los Angeles Rams 15.5 0.483
Carolina Panthers 15.6 0.537
Indianapolis Colts 15.9 0.526
New Orleans Saints 16.1 0.550
Baltimore Ravens 16.1 0.483
Green Bay Packers 16.1 0.483
Los Angeles Chargers 16.1 0.500
San Francisco 49ers 16.2 0.500
Cleveland Brown 16.3 0.508
Cincinnati Bengals 16.5 0.477
Arizona Cardinals 16.5 0.474
New England Patriots 16.6 0.537
Philadelphia Eagles 17.0 0.400
Pittsburgh Steelers 17.2 0.448
Seattle Seahawks 17.5 0.476
Minnesota Vikings 17.6 0.491
Houston Texans 18.1 0.458
Kansas City Chiefs 18.1 0.436
Detroit Lions 18.2 0.466
Jacksonville Jaguars 20.1 0.345
Tennessee Titans 20.4 0.407

The Cowboys make a big jump here, moving from 13th (Opp Win %) to 5th overall (Odds-based SOS), an indication that their remaining opponents could be a lot tougher than those opponents' records currently indicate.

Top ten teams (as measured by Super Bowl odds) remaining on the Cowboys' schedule: Chiefs, Falcons, Seahawks, and the Eagles twice.

Elsewhere in the NFC East, the Redskins also move up quite a bit, from the 24th toughest schedule by opponent win percentage to the 7th toughest schedule by opponent Super Bowl odds.

The calculations don't do much for the Giants either way, they have the 10th toughest remaining SOS by opponent win percentage and the 8th toughest remaining SOS by opponent Super Bowl odds.

The Eagles finally move up a little as well (from 31st to 24th), but their schedule remains fairly easy any way you look at it - unless the Redskins and Cowboys morph into real Super Bowl contenders over the next few weeks.

Outside the NFC East, the Patriots are one of teams with the biggest moves, as they drop from 9th (Opp Win %) to 23rd overall (Odds-based SOS), which suggests that their remaining opponents may have a good combined record, but are not considered strong Super Bowl candidates.


For reference, here are the latest Super Bowl odds per the Westgate:

Super Bowl Odds per Week 7
Team Odds Team Odds Team Odds
New England Patriots 4-1 Green Bay Packers 30-1 Arizona Cardinals 100-1
Pittsburgh Steelers 5-1 Houston Texans 35-1 Baltimore Ravens 100-1
Kansas City Chiefs 6-1 Tennessee Titans 35-1 Indianapolis Colts 100-1
Philadelphia Eagles 8-1 Los Angeles Rams 40-1 Jacksonville Jaguars 100-1
Atlanta Falcons 9-1 Oakland Raiders 40-1 Miami Dolphins 100-1
Seattle Seahawks 9-1 Detroit Lions 50-1 Chicago Bears 200-1
Minnesota Vikings 16-1 Washington Redskins 50-1 New York Giants 200-1
Carolina Panthers 20-1 Buffalo Bills 80-1 New York Jets 300-1
New Orleans Saints 20-1 Cincinnati Bengals 80-1 San Francisco 49ers 2000-1
Dallas Cowboys 25-1 Los Angeles Chargers 80-1 Cleveland Browns 9999-1
Denver Broncos 28-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 80-1