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If you like your football with an Arena League flavor, you'll probably love the NFL matchups this weekend. One of the stats I like to look at the most closely over the season is passer rating differential, the difference between a team's offensive passer rating and its defensive passer rating. Good teams consistently have a positive differential, bad teams consistently have a negative differential. This weekend features an exceptionally high number of games in which there's a significant gap between the passer rating differential of both teams, as the table below illustrates:
| Passer Rating Differentials (PRD) 2017 | |||
| Game | PRD Away Team | PRD Home Team | Difference |
| CLE @ DET | -46.9 | 9.8 | 56.7 |
| NE @ DEN | 5.5 | -18.9 | 24.4 |
| HOU @ LAR | -1.0 | 22.7 | 23.7 |
| LAC @ JAC | -1.8 | 21.9 | 23.7 |
| SEA @ ARI | 17.3 | -3.2 | 20.5 |
| NYJ @ TB | 5.3 | -13.3 | 18.6 |
| PIT @ IND | 9.0 | -9.3 | 18.3 |
| NYG @ SF | -16.1 | -26.1 | 10.0 |
| CIN @ TEN | 3.8 | -3.3 | 7.1 |
| MIA @ CAR | -22.5 | -15.5 | 7.0 |
| NO @ BUF | 25.8 | 19.2 | 6.6 |
| GB @ CHI | -7.5 | -11.5 | 4.0 |
| MIN @ WAS | 12.8 | 16.7 | 3.9 |
| DAL @ ATL | 2.0 | -0.2 | 2.2 |
Take the first game game in the table, Cleveland @ Detroit: The Browns have the worst offensive passer rating in the league with a subterranean 56.1 and the second-worst defensive passer rating of 103.0 for a passer rating differential of -46.9, dead last in the league. The Lions on the other hand have the 11th-best offensive passer rating of 94.4 and the 13th-ranked defensive passer rating with 84.6, which results in a passer rating differential of 9.8. The difference between the two PRDs is 56.7, the highest such value this weekend.
The difference in PRDs is fairly pronounced in 11 out of 14 games, an indication that we could see some fairly lopsided games this weekend. One of the games that promises to be a little more tightly contested (at least on paper) is the Cowboys @ Falcons game, where the two teams are separated by just 2.2 points in the PRDs.
But what the numbers don't show is that the Cowboys and Falcons are two teams on very different trajectories.
Over the last three weeks, the Cowboys are 3-0 and have a PRD of 21.6, while the Falcons are 1-2 with a PRD of -4.8. The difference in PRDs of 26.4 points would catapult the Cowboys @ Falcons game from the bottom of the table to second place on the table, suggesting the game could be just as lopsided as you expect the Patriots @ Broncos or Texans @ Rams games to be.
Here are our picks for Week 10, 2017.
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| Cole | Dave | Danny | Joseph | Michael | OCC | RJ | Strawn | Tom | VAfan | Consensus | |
| Season Results | 85-47 | 84-48 | 72-60 | 88-44 | 83-49 | 83-49 | 70-62 | 72-60 | 78-54 | 75-57 | 83-49 |
| Last Week | 9-4 | 7-6 | 7-6 | 9-4 | 9-4 | 9-4 | 9-4 | 7-6 | 9-4 | 7-6 | 9-4 |
| SEA (-6) @ ARI |  |
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| MIN (-2) @ WAS |  |
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| GB @ CHI (-3) |  |
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| PIT (-10) @ IND |  |
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| LAC @ JAC (-4.5) |  |
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| NYJ @ TB (PK) |  |
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| CIN @ TEN (-5.5) |  |
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| NO (-2) @ BUF |  |
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| CLE @ DET (-9.5) |  |
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| HOU @ LAR (-11) |  |
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| DAL @ ATL (-3) |  |
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| NYG @ SF (-1) |  |
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| NE @ DEN (-7.5) |  |
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| MIA @ CAR (-8) |  |
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