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2017 Strength Of Schedule For All 32 Teams Based On Latest Vegas Super Bowl Odds

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Instead of looking back at last year's W/L record, we look forward to the 2018 Super Bowl odds to calculate each team's 2017 Strength Of Schedule.

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Traditional strength of schedule (SOS) calculations add up the previous year's record of a team’s upcoming 16 opponents to get a cumulative win percentage for all 16 opponents.

Another way to look at SOS is to use the Vegas odds for Super Bowl LII, scheduled for February 4, 2018, as a proxy for team strength. Odds aren't an exact science of course, but looking at odds at least has the advantage of looking at projected future performance, while W/L records are simply a snapshot of past performance.

To calculate the odds-based SOS, I used the latest Super Bowl odds from oddshark (via bookmaker.eu) and assigned each team points from 1 to 32 based on their Super Bowl odds.

The Patriots (7/2) are currently favored to win Super Bowl LII, so they received one point. The Cowboys, Falcons, Packers, Raiders, and Seahawks are tied for the second-best odds (12/1), so they all receive 2 points. The next best teams are the Texans and Steelers (16/1), who are tied for seventh, so they receive seven points each, and so on. The Browns and 49ers are tied for the worst odds (200/1) so they were each assigned 31 points.

I then calculated the average points for each team's remaining schedule, with a lower number meaning a tougher schedule.

Using the odds-based method, the Buccaneers have the toughest SOS in 2017. Their 16 opponents show an average odds-based ranking of 12.5. The Redskins have the second-toughest SOS by this method, with 13.1. The Eagles and Cowboys follow at number seven and eight respectively, while the Giants are ranked with just the 18th toughest schedule.

Here is what the SOS based on Super Bowl odds looks like for all 32 teams, and how that compares to the traditional SOS based on opponent win percentage. For your convenience, the table is sortable (just click on the blue column headers).

Odds-based 2017 Strength Of Schedule By Team
Team Odds-based
SOS
Odds-based
Rank
Opp
Win%
Opp Win
Rank
Change
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 12.5 1 0.490 17 16
Washington Redskins 13.1 2 0.543 7 5
Atlanta Falcons 13.3 3 0.494 15 12
Kansas City Chiefs 13.4 4 0.576 2 -2
Detroit Lions 13.8 5 0.469 23 18
Buffalo Bills 13.9 6 0.561 5 -1
Philadelphia Eagles 13.9 7 0.531 10 3
Dallas Cowboys 14.1 8 0.531 11 3
Los Angeles Chargers 14.3 9 0.568 3 -6
Miami Dolphins 14.8 11 0.547 6 -5
Denver Broncos 14.8 10 0.578 1 -9
New Orleans Saints 14.8 12 0.482 18 6
Carolina Panthers 14.9 13 0.477 22 9
New York Jets 15.1 14 0.535 8 -6
Tennessee Titans 15.1 16 0.455 26 10
Los Angeles Rams 15.1 15 0.510 13 -2
Chicago Bears 15.3 17 0.479 21 4
Green Bay Packers 15.4 19 0.480 20 1
New York Giants 15.4 18 0.535 9 -9
San Francisco 49ers 15.8 21 0.502 14 -7
Oakland Raiders 15.8 20 0.564 4 -16
New England Patriots 15.9 22 0.527 12 -10
Baltimore Ravens 16.5 23 0.461 25 2
Cleveland Browns 16.8 24 0.469 24 0
Cincinnati Bengals 16.9 26 0.449 29 3
Minnesota Vikings 16.9 25 0.453 27 2
Pittsburgh Steelers 17.1 27 0.453 28 1
Jacksonville Jaguars 17.2 28 0.439 30 2
Seattle Seahawks 17.3 29 0.482 19 -10
Indianapolis Colts 17.8 30 0.424 32 2
Houston Texans 18.1 31 0.439 31 0
Arizona Cardinals 18.3 32 0.494 16 -16

For the Cowboys, the different methodologies don't change the overall picture that much. They have the 11th toughest schedule by opponent win percentage and the 8th toughest schedule by opponent Super Bowl odds.

The calculations don't do much for the Eagles either, who have the 10th toughest remaining SOS by opponent win percentage and the 7th toughest remaining SOS by opponent Super Bowl odds.

But the Redskins and Giants make big jumps, even if they are in different directions. The Redskins jump from 7th (Opp Win %) to 2nd overall (Odds-based SOS), while the Giants drop from from 9th to 18th.

The Lions see the biggest swing in SOS. They rocket 18 spots from 23rd (Opp Win %) to 5th overall (Odds-based SOS), an indication that their remaining opponents could be a lot tougher than those opponents' 2016 W/L records suggest. Other teams who move up a lot: Buccaneers (+16 spots), Falcons (+12), and Titans (+10)

The Cardinals are the big 'winners' in this exercise as they drop 16 spots from 16th (Opp Win %) to 32nd overall (Odds-based SOS). The odds-based methodology suggests they could face the softest schedule of any team this year, and that their opponents will underperform versus their 2016 W/L records. Other teams whose schedule softens: Raiders (-16), Seahawks (-10, and Patriots (-10).

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For reference, here are the latest Super Bowl odds:

Super Bowl Odds per May 1, 2017
Team Odds Team Odds Team Odds
New England Patriots 7/2 Arizona Cardinals 33/1 Washington Redskins 50/1
Atlanta Falcons 12/1 Carolina Panthers 33/1 Detroit Lions 66/1
Dallas Cowboys 12/1 Indianapolis Colts 33/1 Los Angeles Chargers 75/1
Green Bay Packers 12/1 Minnesota Vikings 33/1 Buffalo Bills 100/1
Oakland Raiders 12/1 New Orleans Saints 33/1 Chicago Bears 100/1
Seattle Seahawks 12/1 Baltimore Ravens 40/1 Jacksonville Jaguars 100/1
Houston Texans 16/1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40/1 Los Angeles Rams 150/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 16/1 Tennessee Titans 40/1 New York Jets 150/1
Denver Broncos 18/1 Cincinnati Bengals 50/1 Cleveland Browns 200/1
New York Giants 20/1 Miami Dolphins 50/1 San Francisco 49ers 200/1
Kansas City Chiefs 25/1 Philadelphia Eagles 50/1