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After Black Monday: What happened to preseason "hot seat" coaches?

A look back at which coaches the bookmakers had as favorites to get fired entering the 2017 season and how that turned out.

Dallas Cowboys v Atlanta Falcons Photo by Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

Black Monday has come and gone, and six teams are looking for new head coaches, though that number could still increase depending on what happens with Marvin Lewis in Cincinnati and Hue Jackson in Cleveland, although Jackson appears to be safe.

But how do those moves compare to the preseason "hot seat" candidates?

In early September last year, Bovada ran the odds on which NFL head coach would be fired first this year. That dubious distinction ended up going to Ben McAdoo of the Giants, who was the first NFL head coach to be fired during the 2017 season.

At the time the odds were published, the Colts' Chuck Pagano was listed as the most likely head coach to be fired first. The writing had been on the wall for Pagano for quite some time, even if the Colts had inexplicably signed him to a four-year contract extension in 2016, and he ended up being one of the coaches fired on Black Monday.

So how did the rest of those preseason odds turn out this year? Here's an overview of what happened to each head coach since the early odds were released.

Rank Coach Team Odds Status
1 Chuck Pagano Indianapolis -150 Nobody expected him to live out the four-year extension he signed in 2016.
2 Marvin Lewis Cincinnati +1000 No decision has been made on Lewis' future yet.
3 Ben McAdoo New York Giants +1200 Tried hard, but became a victim of the QB situation in New York.
3 John Fox Chicago +1200 Fired with a 14–34 record and finishing last in the division in each of his three years.
3 Todd Bowles New York Jets +1200 Widely expected to tank for the #1 pick, Jets won five games anyway.
6 Bill O'Brien Houston +1400 Safe for now, but has only one year left on his contract.
6 Hue Jackson Cleveland +1400 1-31 record, but safe. Because Cleveland.
6 Jim Caldwell Detroit +1400 Fired after going 4-23 against winning teams in four season.
9 Mike Mularky Tennessee +1800 Playoffs.
10 Adam Gase Miami +2800 Gase will stay despite a disappointing 6-10 record. But Jay Cutler.
10 Doug Pederson Philadelphia +2800 Will be one and done in the playoffs.
10 Jay Gruden Washington +2800 Redskins have 15 million reasons to keep him for the last year of his contract.
10 Ron Rivera Carolina +2800 Playoffs.
10 Sean McDermott Buffalo +2800 Everybody expected them to tank, now they are in the playoffs.
10 Sean Payton New Orleans +2800 Back in the playoffs after the previous three 7-9 seasons.
16 Bruce Arians Arizona +4000 Retired.
16 Doug Marrone Jacksonville +4000 Impressive season for Marrone in Jacksonville.
16 Jason Garrett Dallas +4000 Safe for now, but probably needs to reach playoffs in 2018 to keep job.
19 Dan Quinn Atlanta +5000 Playoffs.
19 Mike Zimmer Minnesota +5000 Former Cowboys DC might make it all the way to the Super Bowl.
21 Dirk Koetter Tampa Bay +6600 Safe despite disappointing season.
21 Kyle Shanahan San Francisco +6600 Folks in San Francisco are pretty hyped right now.
23 Anthony Lynn LA Chargers +7500 Former Cowboys assistant just missed playoffs as rookie head coach.
24 Andy Reid Kansas City +10000 Playoffs.
24 Jack Del Rio Oakland +10000 Expectations were very high for Oakland. Now Gruden's coming back.
24 John Harbaugh Baltimore +10000 Safe despite missing playoffs for third consecutive season.
24 Mike McCarthy Green Bay +10000 Misses playoffs for first time after eight consecutive playoff seasons.
24 Mike Tomlin Pittsburgh +10000 Playoffs.
24 Pete Carroll Seattle +10000 NFL's oldest head coach shows no signs of slowing down.
24 Sean McVay LA Rams +10000 Very impressive turnaround.
24 Vance Joseph Denver +10000 Joseph stays, but half his assistant coaches are fired, and Elway has no clue how to find a QB.
32 Bill Belichick New England +50000 Playoffs.

From this list, it looks like the preseason odds were a good early indicator of what would eventually happen during and after the season.

The obvious surprise on this list is Jack Del Rio, whose Raiders were expected to compete for a Super Bowl this year, but fell flat with a 6-10 record.

Expectations were similarly high for the Cowboys in 2017. In June, FOX Sports broke down the most likely Super Bowl matchups, and a Cowboys vs Raiders Super Bowl had the sixth-best odds at 12/1.

The Cowboys have gone on record and declared Garrett's job safe after a disappointing 2017 season. But it's hard to imagine that the Cowboys would accept another such disappointing season, regardless of the circumstances.

I wrote above that Garrett probably needs to reach the playoffs next season to keep his job. But would a winning record also be enough? Or does it have to be a playoff win, or perhaps two? Or is he safe regardless of what happens?

What do you think the Cowboys need to achieve for Garrett to retain his HC position in Dallas?

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