The BTB mailbag is an interesting one, and we always encourage you to send over thoughts you might have (email right here). Our latest question comes to us from Matt in New Jersey.
Playoffs not withstanding, let’s just say the addition of Earl Thomas automatically gives Dallas two extra wins this season. Would you pull the trigger on the trade?
This is a fascinating way to look at the ever-changing and always interesting (in wild ways) Earl Thomas situation with the Cowboys. When his name comes up we imagine him reuniting with Kris Richard and helping mold the other Dallas DBs, but what would his presence literally amount to?
Two wins feels fair. When you look back at last season for example, Thomas likely makes the difference in the losses to the Green Bay Packers and the Los Angeles Rams. Had the Cowboys won two more games they’d have finished 11-5, gotten the second wildcard spot, and traveled to LA to take on the Rams in the wildcard round.
When opening odds to make the playoffs came out this week the Cowboys were given the 16th-best at +145. Most people feel that Dallas is an eight to nine win team already. If Thomas truly did make a difference of two games, you have to pull that trigger.
If the Cowboys are two wins better with Earl Thomas and this does amount to them reeling off 10-11 dubayoos then their second-round pick next year would fall around 60th (what Seattle reportedly asked for) and their third-round pick at 90th (what Dallas reportedly offered). We’ve talked about how this is seemingly the going rate for Thomas, so it could conceivably come down to parting with the 60th or 90th (approximately) picks in 2019 for an extra two wins in 2018 (and theoretically beyond).
It’s already an interesting proposition to consider trading for Earl Thomas when we’re just imagining the results of the transaction. When you put a dollar value on it so to speak, it becomes something real, something tangible perhaps, that you’re potentially turning down.
Would you trade for Earl Thomas if you knew it guaranteed two more wins for the Cowboys, and what would you give up?