“Hot Boyz” on tour: An early statistical look at the remaining offenses the Cowboys defense will face

The Cowboys defense is off to a pretty hot start with nine sacks, one off the lead owned by the Chicago Bears. We always hear the argument that “sacks aren’t everything”. Yeah, well that argument was made by team that wasn’t getting any! We know that all too well as the Cowboys were near the bottom of the league in recent years. All joking aside, sacks aren’t the only measure of a disruptive defense but they can destroy an opposing offense’s success rate when properly executed.

Though it is far too early to be making any definitive declarations, but the Cowboys “Hot Boyz” have been a pretty lethal pass rushing unit. Now, picture that same unit adding Randy Gregory and David Irving back in the lineup soon. Knowing very well that things can change pretty quickly, I still thought it would be fun to take a look at the remaining offenses on the Cowboys schedule. Which offenses will have a tough time stopping the “Hot Boyz”? On the flip side, which offenses may present much more of a challenge?

The first chart has Pro Football Focus’ offensive line rankings as a loose guide because it is just one platform’s formula. It’s mainly a chart of the opposing quarterbacks, the sacks they have taken, turnovers that they have had, and how it’s affected their QBR. All of these things are relative to the success rate of these offenses that we will check out later:

[Keep in mind that it’s listed by upcoming opponent so division games will be listed twice]

[Note for all charts: Numbers marked blue indicate something considerably favorable to the Cowboys’ defense. For purpose of turnovers, if the QB averages more than one interception per game, that favors the defense. If the QB averages one or more fumbles per game, that also favors the defense but consider fumbles lost too.]

The “Hot Boyz” already have a matchup this week with one of the league’s worst offensive lines in football by a wide margin. They also have potential sack-friendly matchups with the Texans, Redskins, and of course the Giants later this season. This is such a small sample size of stats and you can see areas where they contradict each other. For instance, the Redskins line is PFF’s 12th highest rated line but they have given up the fourth-most sacks in two weeks. So, by this chart, you can gather that Alex Smith may take sacks but he protects the football. Smith has fumbled the ball three times but hasn’t lost one yet and he’s yet to throw an interception. The opposite could be said about the Detroit Lions, this chart would say that Matthew Stafford is getting decent protection but being ultra careless with the football.

Another example could be the Falcons and Cowboys offensive lines who combined for 10 sacks given up in week one. However, they were the only two offensive lines who had given up two or more sacks in week one and zero the following week. This points more to a terrible first game for both teams but maybe not a long-term concern yet. Now, teams like the Seahawks, Giants, and Texans that are giving up multiple sacks with regularity are right to be concerned.

If these statistical trends were to continue in a similar path, the “Hot Boyz” would only face four quarterbacks in the Top-10 in total QBR. Those four in order would be Ryan Fitzpatrick, Drew Brees, Blake Bortles, and Andrew Luck. Something tells me that’s not going to be the way things truly end up with guys like Carson Wentz heading back into the starting lineup.

Now, let’s measure up the opponent’s offensive performances so far to see where the Cowboys could have a defensive advantage (blue) or areas that will be tougher:

[Note: Teams ranked 1-11 range = above average to exceptional, 12-19 = average to decent, 20-32 = poor to below average. For reference, the Cowboys offensive numbers were added too.]

The Jaguars are the only offense that is consistent across the board whereas the Seahawks and Giants struggle in every category. This chart suggests that quite a few offenses on the schedule are finding it difficult in certain areas but offenses tend to start slower than defenses every season. As it stands, the Dallas defense is set to face off with three of the Top-10 passing teams and four of the Top-10 rushing attacks.

Again, look for a few possible changes, in particular, the Saints who are currently one of the worst rushing teams after being Top-5 last season. How much of that is the result of Mark Ingram’s suspension or the fact that their defense is giving up 33 points per game? Also, the Eagles could see a bump in offensive production should Wentz pick up where he left off last season upon his return.

Let’s go one step further inside these offenses and look at the drive stats from Football Outsiders:

[Note: They break down the offense by average yards per drive, points per drive, and most importantly the DSR or Drive Success Rate. DSR measures the percentage of down series that result in a first down or touchdown with kneel downs discarded. Cowboys offense is added.]

So, with all these charts about the opponents offenses that are on the horizon, it means nothing without seeing where the Cowboys defense currently stands.

SPOILER: They are pretty darn good!

These charts seem to all be saying much of the same currently with the Cowboys’ schedule:

• The next three games against the Seahawks, Lions, and Texans (all winless) will present the best opportunities for the defense. After that, it’s the Titans (week 8) and Giants again in the final game of the season.
• The toughest divisional offense they currently face is the Redskins (for now). Pick it up, Iggles!
• The toughest offenses, in general, will be the Saints, Buccaneers, Falcons, Jaguars, and Colts. All NFC and AFC South teams.

With numbers like those above, the “Hot Boyz” have a chance to be one of those special defenses by the end of 2018. Let’s just hope that the Cowboys offense can rise from the depths and start moving the ball so the defense doesn’t have to carry too much of the load. From time to time, we’ll check in to see what changes have occurred because this season is far too young at the moment.