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Cowboys Playoff Tracker: How loss to Green Bay impacts Dallas’ 2019 outlook.

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The Cowboys’ outlook has dimmed a bit.

NFL: DEC 24 Seahawks at Cowboys Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

We’ll start off today’s look at the playoff odds with this convenient reference chart, which shows the historic playoff odds for every relevant W/L record.

The Cowboys have a 3-2 record, and the historic playoff odds for teams with a 3-2 record are 49%. Had the Cowboys won on Sunday, they’d be sitting pretty with a 71% chance of making the playoffs, but that didn’t happen.

Looking at historic odds is just one way of looking at what the future my hold for each team, so today we’ll look at a few more to figure out where this season could be headed for the Cowboys.

FiveThirtyEight.com

538.com calculates playoff odds by taking into account score differential, last season’s record (to an extent), the unexpected nature of each team’s wins, and more. Mix it all together and the site only gives the Cowboys a 47% chance of making the playoffs. That’s pretty close to the historic average for 3-2 teams. The 538 algorithm currently likes the Eagles better than the Cowboys and has the 3-2 Eagles with 64% playoff odds.

Football Outsiders

Another source for playoff odds comes from our good friends at Football Outsiders. Here’s how FO see the playoff odds for winning the division, getting a by week, or gaining a wild card berth:

Team Record Mean Proj. Wins DIV BYE WC TOTAL Change
PHI 3-2 9.8 54% 19% 11% 65% +17%
DAL 3-2 9.2 42% 10% 11% 53% -20%
NYG 2-3 6.4 3% 0% 3% 6% -7%
WAS 0-5 3.8 0% 0% 0% 0% -0%

Again, the Cowboys are pretty much in line with the historic odds, just as the Eagles are quite a bit ahead of the Cowboys yet again.

Vegas

Can’t talk odds without looking at the sportsbooks, even if their objective is less about making an accurate prediction and more about balancing the money on each side of the bet. Per Bonusseeker.com, the Eagles have a slight advantage in the NFC East, but that may not last.

In another race that’s between two teams, the Eagles (-110) and Cowboys (+110) are both nearly even-money for an NFC East title. This should already be obvious, but the two head-to-head meetings will go a very long way in deciding this division.

Going by the rest of the schedule, Philadelphia has a fairly difficult six-game stretch before things ease up. Dallas is in position to gain the upper-leg on the division in the next few weeks and their odds will likely be much worse very soon. Despite poor performances against stiffer competition so far, stick with Dallas in the east.

The Cowboys play the Jets on Sunday. If they win and improve to 4-2, their historic playoff odds climb to 62%. A loss will drop them to 3-3 and very unsexy 34% odds.

Better win on Sunday.