FanPost

The Case for Not Paying Franchise Money to a Defensive End.

DLaw

There used to be a "money-5", but have things changed?

To me my "money 5" has always been slightly different than everyone else's and is mostly about groups instead of just single positions.....

  1. Offensive line as a group. (Some say LT, but all are equally important in my book - O-ring Theory)
  2. Defensive line as a group. (The game is won in the trenches.)
  3. QB (The best QB in the NFL (Aaron Rodgers) the last decade has only one SB win, so maybe the QB does not need to be Elite?)
  4. RB & TE - Net points come from these two best cover mismatches to a great degree.
  5. Defensive Secondary & LBs.

Having said that, let's talk about the Defensive Ends.

DEFENSIVE ENDS
===============

There are 3 tiers for this important position out of the top 32:

SKILL SACKS COMMENTS COST
1 Elite 10 - 20 11 are In this category 20 - 30 million
2 Above Average 8 - 9 6 are in this category 15 million
3 Average 6 - 7 15 are in this category 10 million or less


Notice it only takes 2 sacks to move from Average to Above Average and 2 more to get from above average to Elite.

How much does it cost to move from average to above average and how much does it cost to move to Elite? And more importantly, what is the cost-benefit to do it? Do we really need to pay QB money to a Defensive End?

Any coach will tell you the importance is in "Negative Plays." On defense these are from sacks, tackles for a loss, and turnovers.

All three of these and to some degree "pressures" are some what big determinations of just how we win games by the defense.

On offense it is mostly about producing "Net Points" and not just winning period, as luck and a one score lead will not be enough too many times, and is one reason why we see the team with the ball last win so many times.

"From the 1992 - 2017 seasons the average point differential for the winning team in the super bowl has scored only 9.13 more points on offense than they gave up on defense over the year."

https://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2018/5/2/17305684/exploring-the-myth-of-defense-wins-championships

Notice that the 9.13 net points is more than one score. Basically a team needs over 26 points per game and give up only 17 points per game to win it all. That works out to 418 points on offense to only allowing 272 points on defense.

So, based on that data how did we do last year? Were we a good team? Let's look at the data and compare it to the Pats:

NET POINTS
===========

Year Patriots Cowboys
2018 111 15
2017 162 22
2016 191 115
2015 150 -99
2014 155 115
2013 106 7
2012 226 -24
2011 171 22
2010 205 -42
2009 142 111
2008 101 -3
Total 1720 239
Average 156 21

Notice that the Pats scored more than 100 points on offense over what the defense allowed every year for the last decade and averaged over 150 points more on offense.

The Cowboys only scored more than 100 points over what the defense allowed 3 times and last year we only scored 15 more points than we gave up. Clearly we need help on the offensive side and clearly we are not good enough offensively. Could it be in game-plan or X and O's and not talent?

Even the best defense can not completely stop a great offensive scheme. The offense will almost always score points and get a lot of yards. Let me emphasize...ALMOST ALWAYS!

CONCLUSION
============

And to the conclusion from this post, did the Pats need an elite defensive end to win it all in any of their 6 Super Bowls? How many does Donald or JJ Watt have? On Defense it is about "Explosive Plays" just as it is on offense.

And if so, was it a key? I say it is more about "Net Points" no matter how you can get them and the best way to do that might be to not only have the best offensive minds on your team to get those net points but to also manage the cap by having "a roster containing the largest "middle class" in the NFL."

https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/6/6/15725470/is-the-patriots-salary-cap-prowess-overrated

The above link is further proof that you don't need an elite player at each of the old "money 5" positions if you have a team that has a great game-plan (Head Coach named Belichick, or a group of great offensive minds) and a QB that can orchestrate that game-plan on offense to get the "net points" needed.

And then there is also this:

"How the defense came through for the team wasn’t by NOT giving up points and yards; it was by creating their own explosive plays to stifle opponents and set up their own offenses. Sacks, tackles for a loss, and turnovers are all ways the defense helps the offense. So the good news for high-octane offenses like the Rams and Chiefs is that offense wins championships — as long as defenses contribute with big plays."

https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/12/12/18118236/nfl-offenses-2018-defense-survives-but-how-khalil-mack-aaron-donald-big-plays

Until the next post, hope everyone enjoyed the read, and "Rec's" are always welcome.

Former Front Page Writer For Blogging The Boys

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