Over/Under on Amari Cooper touchdowns - 6.5 for the season

Amari Cooper is making news lately. He made the media rounds on Monday and talked about his projected new contract with the Cowboys. We have also noted that even though he’s about to get paid, and paid big, he still isn’t thought of in the elite receiver club by many NFL observers.

That sentiment seems to spill over to the sportsbooks in Las Vegas. ESPN recently did an article where Ceasers Sportsbook provided lines and odds for various things for each NFL team. Then NFL experts picked a side.

The line for the Cowboys was Amari Cooper at over/under 6.5 touchdowns in 2019. On the face, that seems like a pretty low number. A number one receiver ought to have more than that. Just last year 21 wide receivers had seven touchdowns or more. Eight were in double-digits. So 6.5 seems awfully low for Cooper.

But, as we did in the previous article, when you look back at his history, it’s right in line. In his four seasons, Cooper’s touchdown totals have been six, five, seven and seven. Looking at that, you can kind of see where the sportsbook is coming from.

So, what does Todd Archer, the Cowboys expert for ESPN say in response to that line?

Over/under 6.5 touchdowns for wide receiver Amari Cooper?

Over. Cooper led the Cowboys in touchdown catches last season with six and played in only nine games. He will be the focal point of the offense and his connection with a full offseason of work with quarterback Dak Prescott appears to have grown even more. He is moving all over the formation and is going in motion more. The Cowboys plan to get him the ball a ton of different ways. He might not be as dynamic in terms of touchdowns as Dez Bryant was from 2012 through 2014, but he will have more than 6.5 touchdowns in 2019. If he doesn’t, then something went badly for the Cowboys.

Archer rightfully notes that in just nine games with the Cowboys last year Cooper had six touchdowns. Obviously if you stretch those number over an entire 16 game season he would blow past 6.5 touchdowns, and blow past his own personal high of seven in a season. He also notes that Cooper is here for this offseason, allowing for him and Dak Prescott to work together and develop even better chemistry. The hope of a more dynamic offense under Kellen Moore argues for greater scoring, adding to the case that Cooper should blow past 6.5 touchdowns.

Archer makes good points. But let’s play devil’s advocate and look at the other side. The Cowboys will still be a run-oriented team, so it’s not like they are turning into an aerial circus. And if Dak Prescott is going to run a little more, he just might be doing that in the red zone and snaking some touchdowns for himself. Additionally, the Cowboys now have Jason Witten back, and they have added Randall Cobb. They surely will be options for touchdowns, especially in the red zone. Plus, Michael Gallup showed real improvement over the last half of 2018. There are a lot of mouths to feed in this offense. Let’s not forget rookie Tony Pollard, either. The Cowboys could still have a juggernaut offense without Cooper eating up the lion’s share of the touchdowns.

Over to you BTB. Will Amari Cooper be over or under the 6.5 touchdown mark, and why?