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It's a cruel Prescott summer, part I: what could be seen from the very beginning

This is the first of a planned series closely investigating the play and outlook for Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott. Play clips will be used as much as is practical, and the goal will be to develop a sense of the range of possibilities for the quality of Prescott's current self and future potential, rather than to attempt to nail down either one.

A cursory review of the Blogging The Boys archives, right around the time of Kellen Moore's training camp injury 2016, shows that expectations were not high for how well rookie Dak Prescott would acquit himself in starter Tony Romo's place if needed. And this was for good reason, as Prescott was a late-fourth-round pick who figured to need multiple years of seasoning before he would be ready to quarterback sufficiently for an NFL team. The most immediate concern was for the steep learning curve anticipated for Prescott's transition from an exclusively shotgun offense to operating behind center. The were also questions of the quality of his arm, his comfort in the pocket, and of course the inevitable (for any young passer) worry about his getting used to the speed of the professional game.

Those concerns didn't last long.

With backup QB Moore out and Tony Romo never considered for play in the preseason opener, Prescott drew the start for that contest - and put on a performance that drew league-wide attention. A week later, he put on another show that set the football world ablaze, and just like that it seemed the Cowboys had a worthy and capable backup QB after all. By the start of the regular season, Prescott had capped an all-time great preseason slate, and a good thing for that, as Romo was injured and Prescott needed after all.

But the story of 2016 is for another time. What is of interest today is what we can see on "tape" of Prescott, right from his very debut on a professional football field. Remember, only months earlier it was figured by experts that Prescott would have a long road to haul before he could even be comfortable taking snaps behind center, much less be ready for the skills and talents of NFL defenders. And tape can be a powerful tool, used properly and fairly. Statistics alone cannot speak of only what an individual player does, what with the other 10 teammates working in concert with said player, and the nature of big plays and small sample sizes in football can skew the numbers. The key to using the tape right? Not judging too much on any limited handful of plays, but rather looking for a fuller sampling that demonstrates the good and the bad. What greater sampling, then, is there for a young Prescott than to look at quite literally every single passing and running play for the QB from his debut preseason games? Let's see what the tape says, first by play and then as a whole.

Note: Feel free to cue up the music tracks from NFL Live while perusing this, if you want to get in the mood for some football! I'm listening as I write this!

The Plays, Preseason Games 1 and 2

Game 1, Play 1
The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
This is the first hint of how Dallas would seek to keep things reasonable for Prescott while utilizing his mobility. The misdirection on the play serves to suck up most of the defenders, though one stays on assignment with Prescott. The QB isn't flustered, delivering a perfect strike to the Swaim (who drops it, but that is neither here nor there). This is also the first sign that Prescott doesn't mind throwing on the run.

Game 1, Play 2

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
This is Prescott's first show of his ability to move through progressions. He appears to have an initial read more to his left on this 3rd-and-short, but he moves to Beasley in the right-side slot and puts a pass where it needs to be, when it needs to be.

Game 1, Play 3

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
Here, the pre-snap defensive setup has a safety deep on Bryant's side, but after the snap that safety steps up either to prepare to stop the run or cover short. Prescott sees that Bryant is 1-on-1 and has the sideline, and so a throw here is low risk. The pass itself is also well-placed, giving Bryant a chance to react to the ball before the defender and go up to grab it. Here, we see Prescott make a strong read and decision based on what the defense has done...and we also see the value in having a Dez Bryant type of weapon. Bryant isn't "open" here, literally, but in this sort of situation he is open by default. Take note of the nicely-shaped pocket; the play didn't require a sustained blocking period, but the starting pocket gave Prescott excellent space within which to work.

Game 1, Play 4

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
Another play, another short-but-well-formed pocket, and this time Prescott finds the man left open by the blitzing defender. Remember, this is a Preseason Week 1 blitz of a rookie in his first NFL action, and he knows exactly where to go with the ball and isn't bothered by that blitz (though any interior pressure would have been troublesome).

Game 1, Play 5

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
This is a well-designed screen that Prescott and the OL sell nicely to start, and Prescott knows how to move just enough to let Morris's route finish developing before dropping in the throw.

Game 1, Play 6

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
This is the first time Prescott has to deal with pressure that likely was more of a surprise, an almost unblocked defender on the edge in the direction of his blind rollout. Prescott doesn't panic, knowing where his outlet man is, and he takes the easy solid gain on first down.

Game 1, Play 7

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
Here we have a scoring play that Prescott would have had no chance to complete in 2018. The blocking is an absolute wall on the short drop, granting the passer a chance to fully focus down the field, and he knew as soon as the safety (who could have potentially helped double Bryant outside) stepped up that he was aiming to utilize his special receiver. Again, Bryant is open simply thanks to his skills, and Prescott puts the ball right where the receiver can (and likely will) make the play without risk of being defended. Even at his best, Bryant got a lot of grief from some for weaker route running and such, but it was his ability to do this that is now taken for granted. As for Prescott, last season he all too often would have had to deal with push (or an oncoming rusher) right off the snap, and he didn't have a single target whose size could offer this sort of threat in the short field. It isn't the QB who changed in '18...

Game 1, Play 8

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
Now it's getting good - a confident deep drop play action, plenty of time (but not limitless) given to the passer to let receiver routes develop, and he finds the Butler (a classic secondary-read receiver) with the right throw. Prescott doesn't rush things here, but also doesn't panic with the rush eventually on its way. This isn't a special play for him, but he does everything right. There didn't seem to be many of these in '18, right? Thus is the impact of the loss of high-end blocking...not anything wrong with the QB. Of note is Prescott's footwork here - sometimes it comes and goes even in a clean pocket, but this time his feet are reasonably quiet and he drives nicely off his back foot. Keep that in mind as we move along.

Game 1, Play 9

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
This is when those who are strongly critical of a claimed myriad of flaws with Prescott start to see their claims fade. Reading the field? Prescott eventually finds his man, not a wiiiiiide open target but certainly "NFL open" 1-on-1 downfield. He also initially has his eyes elsewhere and works a pump-fake to draw the deep coverage away from where he knows he wants to go, the move of a seasoned veteran. It can take many years before a young QB can develop that into his repertoire. And look at that throw! It's a clean spiral, has some zip in spite of the distance, and drops in at an ideal angle and location (a key for Mr. Body Catcher Williams). For a passer who "can't read the field" or "throw with accuracy", he sure did to perfection on this one. What's the standout element here, outside of Prescott? Look at that pocket! When you see throws like this in the NFL, much more often than not you see this sort of blocking too. Team game, you see. The more such pockets Prescott encounters in 2019, the more often he'll make these kinds of throws.

Game 1, Play 10

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
A return to a recent Dallas classic, we have what appears to be a read-option or read-option play fake, with Prescott ready to roll right if the edge defender picks up Swaim in the flat or if not dump it to Swaim for a very easy gain on first down. Again, nothing special here, but the read is right and there isn't any panic. Also, Swaim, buy some hands man!

Game 1, Play 11

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
With a tight box and single safety, Prescott looks middle during the quick drop, and then just as quickly moves to check on the outside secondary option (Butler again) whom he knows is 1-on-1. I thought Prescott couldn't make reads? He also knows the timing of this play, understanding that he can't count on the good initial blocking to hold up long on this play design especially with the threat of a blitz. Again, this is the kind of well-done play that sometimes would get short-circuited last year when the interior OL would surrender immediate push or pressure.

Was this play all good for the passer? Heck no...here we see the first hint of Prescott's come-and-go footwork, as he ends up entirely on his front foot and thus the all-arm throw sails on him. He can get away with that at times, but sooner or later it'll bite a QB against NFL defenders and/or cost the receiver a first down.

Game 1, Play 12

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
I dunno how it got to be 2nd-and-34 (woof), but this is the discipline of a Brady or Brees, fighting the urge to try to get most of the yardage back when an easy 8 yard play helps to set up a shot at a FG with the team already up by a couple of touchdowns. The defense was back and full of DBs, and some ultra-talented throwers might still take his chances on getting more yardage back, but this is a showcase of the disciplined and conservative planning that is wise to pair with the Cowboy gameplan and Prescott skill set.

Game 2, Play 1

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
This time, we see what happens when the Cowboy blind rollout away from the fake run sucks up the defender with edge responsibility. Prescott is given space to move his eyes downfield, and even though Escobar is there for an easy short gain Prescott knows to look deeper downfield. This isn't about reading the entire field - it's about knowing where to read first when you start your roll out and what the standard is for pulling the trigger. And hey, Swaim caught it this time! Huzzah! Also, this is another pretty roll-out throw that Prescott makes look rather easy.

Game 2, Play 2

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
Hold by Escobar aside, the blocking here (especially on the inside) is terrific, allowing Prescott the time to find an open man. But that's actually not quite accurate - watch the routes as best you can on this non-"All 22" tape, and you can see that these routes are designed to develop and set up a nice intermediate gain. The purpose of this play is to take advantage of the play action to set up time and single coverage, and give Prescott a chance at more than the "safe" short gain. Last year, this kind of play was almost out of the playbook, given the blocking struggles of the interior OL.

Game 2, Play 3

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
This is a well-designed play! Escobar's route draws the coverage defender lined up closer to the LOS, setting up Beasley to have a free release into an open middle of the field. Beasley is almost certainly the primary guy here, and everyone does his part. The starting blocking is good, and while the blindside rush came in before long the play didn't need extra time to work. Prescott dropped back with confidence, saw the routes working as drawn up, and zipped the pass right where it needed to go. Team!

Game 2, Play 4

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
Prescott isn't perfect here, as his weight is sitting too far back and forces him to "arm" this deep throw (it's a pretty nice throw given that setup, however). It isn't a mechanics disaster, but it could use some cleanup.

The real news, here, is how this delivers a blow to the jaw of "Prescott can't anticipate". In fact, Prescott's excellent anticipation on this play might be the reason he chose to throw off bad footwork rather than wait to reset and thereby miss an opportunity. If you watch Bryant's route, you can see him double move just as he approached the edge of the clip, stepping inside before shooting deep. It isn't the cleanest route, but the defender bites so badly that it leaves Bryant with huge space as the throw approaches. But look at when Prescott begins to make his throw, i.e. the moment that he reads what is happening on the route: it's only in the moment the DB bites, and before Bryant has actually emerged steps ahead of him. Yes, Prescott can and does anticipate, when merited. He misses some opportunities, but literally all QBs do - the only way to really judge Prescott's anticipation is how often he misses a read he is in position to make, and it takes a lot of tape watching of him AND other QBs to quantify that. I would not venture to attempt to place Prescott's anticipation abilities relative to that of his peers, but he can anticipate nevertheless.

It also might start to sound like a broken record, but look at that blocking! Also, ball placement isn't perfect here (again, perhaps prioritizing timing over mechanics), but Prescott made sure to err to the outside rather than ending up too deep for a catch or too inside where the trailing safety could perhaps make a play on the throw.

Game 2, Play 5

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
The power of the pocket compels you! Prescott is able to move to a second (maybe third) read all while standing tall, the dream of all passing attacks. This time, he begins by scanning what is happening among the routes to the right side of the field, but not seeing any ready to beat defenders he moves back to Butler running a route built with a timed later move, one aimed at beating the 1-on-1 coverage - but only if there is enough time for the route to unfold. Tellingly, Prescott is showcasing a strong knowledge of his playbook and ability to make the reads those plays call for, despite his inexperience. This highlights the level of the challenge he had to work to overcome last season, when a play like this often would have forced him to respond to pressure after his first read, causing him to either never get his eyes on "Butler" or else see him only after the route has overdeveloped back into the path of a defender, probably drawing claims that the QB "missed the obvious read" even though his eyes would have been off Butler due to the rush.

Game 2, Play 6

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
After some time, we have our first real rushing production from Prescott, who after a high snap didn't like what he saw with his routes or else couldn't pass up on an open middle of the field. He takes off and cuts 1st-and-15 in half, in an easy way that many QBs could not.

Game 2, Play 7

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
This demonstrates Prescott at perhaps his most special. He doesn't force the ball out, but instead comfortably extends the play when given a lane into which to move. He rolls out, and the defense has to respect his ability to deliver a good ball while on the move, keeping defenders back on their heels long enough for Prescott to really take off. His ability to see a run opportunity and seize it with his speed is the final key element here, displaying the QB's ability to be a scoring weapon close to the end zone.

Game 2, Play 8

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
Not much to take from this, beyond it being a well-executed running back screen off of play action. Again, Prescott shows plenty of comfort taking the snap from behind center and not rushing the throw until the screen has sufficiently developed.

Game 2, Play 9

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
This is a fine example of Prescott having plenty of pocket awareness and solid comfort with dealing with a pass rush. He picks up the edge rusher having a quick lane to the outside and steps up as he should. Ideally, an NFL line will hold the middle enough to allow the passer to set his feet, read, and throw, and certainly the 2016 Dallas line normally would, but on this play the interior of the line gets pushed back a bit and crowds the step up. A fully polished QB would have only taken the step or two required to clear the edge rush and perhaps been able to make use of the limited space up front, but that's asking a lot of any passer, much less a young one.

Prescott instead comfortably heads outside of the pocket, is able to square his shoulders, and delivers a sufficiently-accurate throw to an open man. It isn't an exceptional play, but it's weakness-free execution on a play that did not get off to the best start up front.

Game 2, Play 10

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
It appears that Prescott's initial read(s) is down the middle of the field here, and before he can progress to an outside target (perhaps seeing Butler on the far right) he feels out the blindside rush and gets rid of the ball. The target isn't open and Prescott doesn't put it in the safest place - down and away from the defender - so that much is on him here.

The pass rush forces Prescott to either buy time himself or get rid of the ball, and this play demonstrates the gamble that "get rid of the ball" advocates from last season overlook. Bad things happen to QBs who force the ball, and Prescott is wise to limit how often he puts himself in this position. It's unclear whether the open Butler (the only target open enough early on the play) would enter the read progression for a more experienced QB who can read the field faster, or whether this play simply is not intended for the progression to arrive at Butler in the allotted time, but the young passer could have done better here at least with ball protection, at a minimum.

Game 2, Play 11

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
Prescott has good time here and seems to have an open man ready for a catch, but the ball gets tipped at the line, which happens. It's notable that a QB more experienced in general and/or in this offense could/should have known better when the receiver would break back and thus pull the trigger sooner, but this is Prescott's first NFL action and he can be excused at this stage. It would be very interesting to see whether Prescott would throw with better "anticipation" on a similar play now, given the same blocking - the trouble with trying to determine that from his 2018 tape is how rarely he worked with such blocking, and pressure changes everything.

Game 2, Play 12

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
This isn't an aggressive playcall, as the out route is the first read for Prescott here and he takes it, successfully but with a low chance at a conversion. But that's okay, as the play begins on the edge of field goal range and a full 10 yards from the first, so this sets up a strong improvement on the chances of a field goal that ends up being converted. There was a free rusher on the front end, away from Prescott's read direction, and it's nice that he doesn't panic or lose his throwing mechanics because of that.

Game 2, Play 13

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
Prescott is flushed from the pocket fairly early here, and ideally he would have seen enough on the pre-snap read to be ready for Whitehead to be left open on the short route to the right, which would have been the ideal target. Again, we don't know what Prescott's planned read progression is, and it takes experience to adjust a planned progression based on the setup of a defense. He still buys as much time as he can and gives the play a shot, so while he could have been better again on this one he still was in control and gave the play a chance.

Game 2, Play 14

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
There's some "wow" on this throw. It isn't common even among NFL QBs to drift left and still be able to deliver the ball 60 or so yards in the air, much less with pinpoint placement. The play action sets this up and the initial blocking is excellent, but with better performance Free would have held his man longer at the top of the clip and allowed Prescott to take advantage of the rest of the great blocking to not need to take the lower-percentage shot downfield. But this play demonstrates that Prescott's arm can be a true weapon even among high-end NFL throwers when he lines his mechanics up; it all comes down to how often he can align his throws as he did here.

Game 2, Play 15

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
It's the "Dez Bryant special", aiming for a well-placed ball to the end zone sideline in a 1-on-1...excepting that this is to Butler instead of Bryant. Prescott's execution is essentially flawless here: he doesn't telegraph his target by staring it down from the snap, waits one more moment to let Butler get in position, and then he puts the pass just far enough from the DB to avoid a defended throw, but not so far to the outside that Butler would struggle to secure the grab.

Game 2, Play 16

The Tape:
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The Breakdown:
This is the benefit of a QB with some good mass and "push", who is able to use his body to fight for that last yard or even inch when necessary. Prescott doesn't take shots unnecessarily, but he has shown the ability to take hits without compromising his durability.

Preseason Game 3 Counts Too

With the GIF count here already reaching critical mass, I'll draw the line at plays from these first two games. But 2016's third preseason contest for the Cowboys (the final one for Prescott that year) cannot go unmentioned. Feel free to check out the full tape of all of Prescott's throws in this clip.

The nice aspect of that final game that doesn't count is that it gave us a look at a beginning Prescott at his most challenged. As the third preseason game, this served as the traditional "dress rehearsal", with Seattle throwing its real defense onto the field. The Seahawks seemingly did not hold back with some varied schemes, blitzes, and so forth, and the fans in Seattle weren't taking the game off either, so Prescott had his chance to get a feel for an elite defense in a tough environment.

The degree of difficulty proves to be the challenge expected, as Prescott doesn't light up the box score as he did in the first two games. He badly misses an open Beasley on an early clean-pocket play, and even his TD pass is poorly placed and only works out thanks to a nice grab by Witten. Prescott also shows signs of being uncomfortable with what he sees downfield, likely due to some combination of the quality of coverage (not surprising given the Seattle secondary) and his lack of feel of how to best attack the Seahawk scheme.

But even this game comes with a major asterisk: Dez Bryant did not play at all, and Prescott only had Ezekiel Elliot for the first two series. Take those two away, and Dallas at the time offered pretty unremarkable firepower, so this was a look at how the 2015 season would have gone with Prescott available to fill in for Romo. The verdict? He never was totally flustered, played with control, found room to take some safe shots downfield, and ultimately played Seattle to a deadlock (in Seattle) for an entire half. That means that this game, despite the lack of "wows", probably was the best demonstration that Prescott was ready to start full time and belonged in the league. There was plenty of work to be done, but it capped a truly astonishing ascent for a passer who was expected to take years (plural) to adjust to playing behind center and to learn to handle NFL schemes and talent.

What This Tape Says About Prescott From His Professional Beginnings

Please keep in mind that this piece does not aim to identify Prescott's precise quality from his professional start. Preseason games are not real games and offer a limited sampling for evaluation, and that's besides the point that it's difficult to pinpoint a quarterback's quality even with a full season to work with.

The goal, instead, is to highlight a sense of Prescott's starting "floor", between a snapshot of his "feel" for the game and the physical abilities he demonstrates. The following are perhaps what stands out most from the sum of these plays:

-As mentioned above, before training camp it was expected that Prescott would need some time to become comfortable with taking snaps under center, on the basis of the typical learning curve demonstrated by those who had needed to previously overcome the same hurdle, and that did not prove to be the case. Prescott was also quoted early in training camp that he did not find the speed of the professional game to be overwhelming, something that is very often not the case for a rookie quarterback. All that, on top of the at-least-sufficient command of the offense that Prescott displays in the tape here, speaks to combination of work ethic and ability to learn that has been spoken of often by players and coaches. Yes, by themselves such quotes can be seen as lip service or without substance, but the results here offer strong validation. How else could the young player have gotten so up to speed in so little time?

-Prescott has an NFL-quality arm. He will never put on the sort of show that a Mahomes does, and can't create effortless or elite "zip", but he can make all but the most difficult of throws. Perhaps the best arm comp for Prescott - just his arm, mind you - is Tom Brady, another passer who does not have a naturally standout physical arm but who can make almost all the throws when given the opportunity to line up mechanics. Like Brady, when Prescott has the chance to prepare his throw, he can put up distance and accuracy on even very deep throws. But unlike Brady, Prescott's mechanics can come and go even without pressure forcing the issue.

-Relative to his age and experience, Prescott has a strong handle for the pocket and pass rush. Yes, he can be flushed a little early, and yes, he can sometimes "dance" when the pass rush isn't really a threat yet, but that is very typical for a young QB. To expect better, at this stage (rookie season or even three years in) is asking too much, and to expect Prescott or any QB to look comfortable with an interior pass rush as an ever-present threat (as it was in 2018) is really really asking too much. Notice how strong the interior OL's blocking was in this set of clips, and notice how Prescott rarely showed "happy feet" or an extreme early bail? There is a reason for that, and that reason is not unique to Prescott among inexperienced passers.

-Mobility is truly a superlative for the Dallas QB. He can use it to more easily buy time than would be the case for others, and it can become a source of rushing production too. It's to Dallas's credit that it didn't handicap the growth of Prescott by encouraging him too much to resort to his legs as soon as a play feels "off" - a lesson I did not learn so well back in my days playing football video games, heh - but there might be room for him to take more advantage of this skill.

-As long as you remember that young passers are "capped" in how well they can read the field, Prescott's field reading was well ahead of the curve here and likely has continued to be on or above pace. Don't forget that the "degree of difficulty" of reads is affected greatly by how long a QB can look downfield undisturbed by the pass rush, and by both how much space receivers put between themselves and their coverage guys and how skilled receivers are winning contested passes. With a Dez Bryant on hand, a QB knows that under pressure he can turn to his All Pro for a "safe" target even if the receiver isn't actually open, as seen by the short-field TD pass to Bryant above. Prescott also had little difficulty finding open guys when given time, which was the standard in these clips. When pressured, or when the receiver talent dropped off (as in the Seattle contest)? Suddenly, with nobody skilled enough to force the ball to, there was more hesitation and short passing by Prescott. That speaks to the impact of the team around a QB, a vital factor that is consistently underrated by most NFL fans.

-In summary, Prescott's physical skill set showed good arm talent and major mobility, and his "mental" side of the game made it apparent that inexperience would not hold the QB back from playing disciplined and generally comfortable football. The inconsistency with his mechanics leaves the passer open to missing out on good opportunities, and he certainly isn't a fully polished reader of the field, but his undeniable work ethic brought him up to speed on the playbook and scheme remarkably quickly and hints that some degree of continued improvement is likely for years to come. As a "prospect" whose preseason performance proved the ability to handle the starting role immediately and some degree of franchise QB potential, excitement by fans was justified, though there was plenty of work to be done. Prescott was essentially a young QB most about a well-rounded skill set, who countered a lack of elite pure passing tools by working his game to not have any true big weaknesses either. Limitations, yes, but most of them were actually limitations almost demanded by inexperience.

Through this early tape alone, it can be judged that his ability to reach a "second tier franchise QB" status (as in, just short of the very small "elite" tier) will be determined by his success at ironing out his mechanical failures in clean pockets as well as how much he can master quick reads in plays and keen reads before the snap. But he displayed a lot of baseline quality from the very start, the kind expected from a QB with major draft pedigree. Prescott's less traditional skill set renders him less intuitive to casual fan observation and analysis, but it seems that the steady decline in the quality of Prescott's offensive supporting cast in Dallas has caused many to forget how much of an impact teammates have on a passer - and how much quality he proved without delay.

Final note: if you wish to watch the video clips that were the sources for the first two preseason games GIFs here, you can find Game 1 here and you can find Game 2 here. Have fun!

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