FanPost

2020 Q1 review: how did my bag of Twizzlers end up half black licorice?

This is not how it was supposed to go - or, at least, not how it was supposed to start. 1-3 does not feel good. 146 points allowed, worst in the NFL, feels worse. The defense is hemorrhaging, the offense turning the ball over too often, and hopes of reinforcements through return from injury have been tempered by both La'el Collins and Tyron Smith being officially ruled out for the rest of the season.

No doubt - it has been bad. That leaves two questions: has it been as bad as it seems, and is there any hope for things to get better? Let's explore!

The Games Played

One lesson stressed by NFL history is to not only look at the wins and losses, but how they have happened. Especially when looking at just a handful of games and what they could indicate about the future, a team with a number of close wins or losses is tied much less firmly to its record than a team with clear wins and losses. What are the broad strokes to take from Dallas's 1-3?

Game 1, 17-20 loss to the Rams - hints of defensive struggles to come we first laid out here, with Dallas surrendering 422 total yards to the Rams. The disappointment is that the defense was still able to buckle down and hold LA to only those 20 points, thanks in part to a turnover-free effort by the offense. But while the Ram defense is no dominating group, the great Aaron Donald single-handedly held the Cowboy attack in check. Dallas was in the game right up until Dak Prescott hit Michael Gallup with a beautiful deep throw that would have set the Cowboys up to tie or win the game from the opposing 19 with 21 seconds and a timeout to go, only to have the official make a frankly bogus OPI call that iced the game. This is as close as it gets.

Game 2, 40-39 win against the Falcons - an early 20 point hole dug by an insane stretch of offensive turnovers for the Cowboys was followed by Dallas outscoring the Falcons 40-19 the rest of the way, capped off by a rare onside kick recovery for the game-winning FG. While it can be rightly pointed out that Dallas needed some good fortune (partly its own making, but not totally) to win the onside kick, that is largely reversed by the amount of bad luck that went into the early turnovers. To be fair to an opponent who likely played somewhat differently with a big lead, it wouldn't be right to say that Dallas played the better overall game, but this is another contest that can be seen as capable of going either way.

Game 3, 31-38 loss to the Seahawks - a very fun, back-and-forth game in which the two teams were very close just before halftime, then the Dallas offense spotted Seattle turnovers on either side of halftime for short field TDs, Dallas fought back into the game and even the lead, Seattle got the lead back, and a long Dallas drive fell just short. In other words, this was another very close contest, though Seattle looked like the better team overall.

Game 4, 38-49 loss to the Browns - the two teams traded early scores twice, then the Cowboys invoked their bugaboo with back-to-back offensive turnovers that turned into short-field TDs, and then the contest returned to a close game from there, with Dallas's 24-21 advantage the rest of the way not enough to dig out of the hole. Cleveland looked to play an even more superior game than Seattle had, and though the points allowed were atrocious the gap between the two wasn't overwhelming.

The MLB Equivalency - one of the struggles of NFL fandom is that each contest counts for so much and is all or nothing, giving no partial credit for close or well-played games. Helpfully, a Major League Baseball season has essentially 10 times as many games played per team in a season, which means we can see a single NFL game not only at a round number of 10 MLB games, but an automatic 10 game winning or losing streak with every outcome. No wonder emotions swing so much week to week in football!

If we were to convert the Cowboy season so far into its MLB equivalent, that would amount to a 10-30 record. In a normal season, a 10-30 start would feel like a lost season for sure, but it would also be abnormally bad - the most recent full-season MLB team to lose at that clip was the expansion 1962 New York Mets, a team that malfunctioned in every way. It isn't hard to see the difference between that sort of quality of team and that of any 1-3 NFL team in a given season.

That's due to the all-or-nothing factor. If we instead approximated each game the Cowboys have played thus far as stretches of 10, by the breakdown above that would conservatively amounts to wins of around 5, 5, 4, and 3. 17-23 is still a pretty weak start, but just a year ago two teams (the Oakland Athletics and Washington Nationals) began their seasons around that mark and ended up easily making the playoffs when all was said and done. The year before that, the Tampa Bay Rays started off worse and almost made the playoffs, while the projected favorite Los Angeles Dodgers were also worst through 40 games and ended up in the World Series. That's something worth chewing on.

The Team's DVOA Breakdown

Just as we can take a look at how Dallas played in each game on a quality, macro basis, we can also check out a closer look at team and unit quality in context using DVOA from Football Outsiders. As summarized by FO, "DVOA measures a team's efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent" ("would you like to know more?"). In other words, it checks out how well a team did, in context, on a play-by-play basis. That goes a long way in smoothing out contextual issues that make it hard to compare games as apples to apples.

You need not take these numbers as the be-all end-all, but they add a different sort of look that is helpful in further understanding "how" Dallas has played in games so far this season. Have a look:

Dallas Overall DVOA) -3.2% (16th in NFL)
Dallas Offensive DVOA) 6.1% (12th)
Dallas Defensive DVOA) 7.9% (24th, positive is good for all but defense)
Dallas Special Teams DVOA) -1.4% (17th)

Going by DVOA alone, Dallas has been a roughly average NFL team so far...how about that? This is mostly due to two factors: as discussed in the prior section, Dallas's performance in games has been strong than its pure 1-3 record (though still clearly below average), and Dallas's quality of competition has been above average. Stir a truer quality of performance with an opponent adjustment, and it still isn't a winner...but it isn't as far from winning as it would seem at first blush.

It might be a downer to see Dallas's seemingly superlative offense ranked at a tepid 12th, but as rightly observed by many the average quality of defense faced hasn't been standout and the unit's many turnovers so far have had a crippling affect on some games. Just because the offense has dug itself out of some holes of its own making doesn't change that it dug the holes in the first place.

Conversely, for all the awful of scheme adjustments and injuries and simply poor-looking play on the field, a 24th ranking for the defense is not even in the same zip code as the "historically bad" surface feel of the play on that side of the ball. It might be tempting to hand waive this off, but quality of competition and the negative offensive plays are undeniably against the favor of the defense thus far and thus things look better - though still plenty bad and in need of improvement - on D.

A Few Other Big-Picture Notes

The Field Position Game - last season, the offense had its own handicap to overcome due to being handed league-bottom average starting position, an issue laid mostly at the feet of the special teams. Expectations of a special teams rebound were high, and yet through four weeks Dallas has found itself with the second-worst average starting field position in the NFL. So, time to put the special teams out to pasture again? Partially. There have been some notable problems with Kick Returns, but even in spite of that and some missed Field Goals the special teams DVOA has had a near-average overall impact. That's no plus, but it is a major improvement from last season, as desired. It's utter lack of defensive turnovers on top of the kinds in some areas of the special teams that this time around have led to this longer field for the Cowboys. Take heart that the coaching change here has been working, but more improvement in starting field position is needed.

Bad Luck On Turnovers - no, this does not apply to all turnovers. Interceptions are what they are for the most part, and some fumbles are certainly earned. But study of NFL history has long confirmed that there is no standout ability to better recover fumbles forced; all told, fumbles are recovered by the defense roughly 50% of the time, individual variances from this that happen every year demonstrate little sustainability. Teams absolutely can be better or worse at forcing fumbles, but not in terms of turning them into turnovers.

That means a very easy way to go looking for in-season and between-season turnarounds is to hunt for teams that have been especially lucky or unlucky with recovering fumbles on either side of the ball. Dallas? It has lost 6 of its 7 offensive fumbles, a ridiculously out-of-line figure. Indeed, while some have harped on some player fumbles for being mental mistakes or something along those lines, many of the fumbles have simply been a guy reasonably protecting the ball only to have the right hit (or the right body on which to keep the ballcarrier above ground to set up a grab) both jar it loose and give it away. Take even a couple of lost fumbles off the board, and one or two games could have gone quite differently. That isn't how the past works, but that change can be expected for the future.

The Schedule - as referenced earlier, Dallas's schedule has set up an above-average challenge so far, weighted more towards the quality of opposing offenses. FO has the Cowboys as having played the 9th-toughest schedule thus far, giving the team a minor benefit of the doubt when adjusting raw results for small-sample quality of opposition. But herein lies perhaps the best news for the ultimate fate of the 2020 Cowboys: Dallas has, by far, the easiest remaining schedule in FO eyes, -9.0% with the next-easiest schedule coming in at -6.8% (for reference, 4th easiest is -3.9%). If the Cowboys can't emerge with at least a division win in the face of this schedule, it'll only have itself to blame.

PFF And The Players

While the details of Pro Football Focus grades won't be explored here, suffice it to say that their evaluations are, one, not perfect nor set in stone, but two, better as a quick general measure of player performance than any other tool we have available. The following cites the grade for each notable player on the Cowboy roster, along with thoughts behind each:

QB Dak Prescott (82.2)
- the best QBs will crack the low to mid 90s, so Prescott's grade agrees with the eyes that he has been very good but not in the elite tier. He was at 86 or so before this past game, and the turnovers and would-be turnover throws are the biggest holdback. For reference, Patrick Mahomes has an 82.3 grade.
RB Ezekiel Elliott (66.6) - PFF for good reason has rarely look highly on Elliott, though their grades seem to skew too negative. But this is very low for Elliott even in their system, and the hit starts with the fumbles.
RB Tony Pollard (62.7) - he's been inconsistent so far after grading nicely a year ago.
WR Amari Cooper (81.3) - face it; he's a terrific player, and typically only injuries can hold him back. Unfortunately, injuries seem to be only a matter of time with Cooper, but even with some reported dings to this point he's doing very well.
WR Michael Gallup (60.6) - WR grades can be more surprising than most, and some of that might be due to grading issues given how much WR performance is tied to QBs and others. Not a good start, but more games are needed before this becomes a worry, not to mention he probably got a ding for what should have been a fine grade from the OPI penalty.
WR CeeDee Lamb (65.2) - this is a pretty good grade for a rookie WR, with the same caveats as the above. So far, so good!
WR Cedrick Wilson (78.0) - probably inflated due to a small sample size, but is anyone complaining?
WR Noah Brown (72.9) - useful thus far, not much more to add than that.
TE Dalton Schultz (66.8) - while not a standout grade, it is a major improvement over Witten's and Jarwin's grades from a year ago, so that's a start!
TE Blake Bell (67.9) - also useful thus far.
C Joe Looney (64.0) - this is a nice step up from Looney's 2018, so he has held down his spot well enough and will be welcomed back from injury in some capacity.
C Tyler Biadasz (56.8) - not a strong starting grade, but in line with 2018 Looney or pre-2020 Williams and thus playable. There should be just enough time between now and Looney's return to get a read on whether Biadasz can stick as starter or is better left developing on the bench.
G Connor Williams (61.2) - this is a step up from years one and two, but not nearly enough to justify the investment or hopes put in him. Fans tend to lock too much into his very-real occasional blown blocks and miss his plus plays, but he needs to do better at not allowing his man to mess up plays all alone.
G Zack Martin (84.8) - like clockwork, nothing else to see here, move along!
T Tyron Smith (67.8) - not the best grade in his limited time, and now he's gone. Get well for 2021!
T Brandon Knight (65.4) - as with Looney's this grade will play. Let's hope it sustains or gets better.
T Terrance Steele (47.8) - this grade, however, will not play. Even if this is more a Myles Garrett hit than anything, if Steele keeps this up then Dallas would have to look to contingencies.

Offensive Summary - if you are dubious about these grades, consider how well they line up with DVOA's view of the offense. Fixing up the turnover rate would be a huge help, but for the most part it's been a lot of solid performances buoyed by Prescott, Cooper, and Martin doing the heavy lifted...as one's stars should do. Dallas will have to keep experimenting with the OL to find the winning (or, least-losing) formula there, and the non-Cooper skill position players will probably see their grades rise when they have their bigger games.

DE Aldon Smith (61.4) - odds are this will be a bit of an unpleasant surprise, but it's not bad for a guy so long removed from the game, and was better even just a week ago before a tough game last time out. This is a promising start, hopefully with better to come.
DE Demarcus Lawrence (60.7) - Smith has received big praise while Lawrence has been called "invisible", and neither claim was fair. No doubt that Lawrence has not been remotely his usual self (in the mid-80s even last year, and better before that), but at least he has some logical explanations in the form of scheme changes and a knee injury. He has to offer better in the games to come, though.
DE Everson Griffen (49.7) - the issues on defense in general might knock many grades, but Griffen has looked a shadow of even his 2019 past self. Like Lawrence, Griffen started off in an unfamiliar scheme role and did little with it, potentially setting up a rebound, but unlike with Lawrence who has rebounded with some good tape the past couple of games Griffen has shown almost nothing.
DE Dorance Armstrong (58.0) - he looks like just a guy, and this grade might be generously assisted by selective, low snap usage.
DE/DT Tyrone Crawford (49.8) - doesn't seem to have rebounded from injury. Dallas has to ask whether he's just working to get his sea legs back or is toast; if the latter, he might be worth a freed-up roster space even without an cap savings. The problem: Dallas needs him to fill the planned McCoy role, a guy who can hold the edge in 3-4 looks and rush from the interior at other times.
DT - Dontari Poe (55.7) - as with Armstrong, hasn't shown much
DT Trysten Hill (34.1) - this is a strange one, as it's both utterly awful and was much. much better (mid-50s I believe) even just a week ago. What happened on the Week 4 tape to torpedo this number? And how could this be, when Hill has had a number of penetrations and pocket pushes? Either PFF's process undervalues non-splash such plays, or else his negatives haven't jumped off screen but have been a rough negative.
DT Antwuan Woods (54.4) - another on the DL who has had his moments here and there but otherwise has been forgettable.
LB Jaylon Smith (41.7) - yeah, it's as bad here as it has looked on tape, unlike with Hill. For reference, when Smith was noted for struggling last year he was grading in the low-60s in the earlier part of the season but then did well enough later on to pull his grade into the low-70s. That would be a panacea for him at this point.
LB Joe Thomas (53.5) - he's a backup level of player, and this grade will do for such a guy.
CB Trevon Diggs (44.5) - as with Hill, Diggs has shown a good deal of positive flashes to go with his growing pains. Eventual big-time CBs routinely get picked on as rookies while showing flashes before taking big steps forward in a year or two, so Diggs is not off pace right now.
CB Daryl Worley (57.0) - he isn't a total negative, so he can be played. But it would be nice to have him come off the bench as depth.
CB Chidobe Awuzie (66.9) - Awuzie can't return soon enough. He did not take the leap forward anticipated for 2019 and now 2020, but that doesn't erase that he is quite a solid performer and would make the entire CB group better by upping the play of the CB1 and sliding everyone else down a notch.
CB Anthony Brown (51.3) - another Worley level of player, but more options doesn't hurt and helps the debt.
CB Jourdan Lewis (53.0) - at this stage, Lewis is no better (or worse) than Brown, but that's a downer given past expectations. Some still cling to him as a guy of notable promise, but he probably is what he is at this point.
S Xavier Woods (72.7) - somehow, despite grading out as Dallas's best defender after also grading similarly last year, Woods has been lumped together with Thompson by many. It really isn't cool. He might not be a long-term piece (especially depending on price), but he's a worthy quality starter at one safety spot.
S Darien Thompson (45.6) - the other, however, has suffered in Thompson's hands. Experiment over, move him to a backup role and that's that.
S Donovan Wilson (46.4) - he looked as bad as this grade on tape, but unlike with Thompson he has potential. Play the kid and see what happens!

Defensive Summary - it's something of a near-horror all the way around, with only Woods at least meeting sufficient expectations. Awuzie has met his floor at least, and the edges should be in good hands going forward with Lawrence and Smith (and Gregory soon to join the party), but all the rest have been blah. Bookmark this post and check out how things have changed (or not) in another four games or so; if some grades have taken a leap, things would be on the right track, and more of this would not bode well for the very rest of the story.

A Final Word

Please take care to not see this piece as presenting, much less pushing, a positive outlook. Frankly, there is no positive outlook. It's helpful to have it strongly indicated that the team has not been as bad as it feels, but that still leaves firmly at "mediocre" with a defense somewhere between "poor" and outright "bad". If the team's record turns around without some major improvements "under the hood", fade the Cowboys late and/or in the playoffs and make some easy money.

But the talent is still in place, and these figures do not adjust for learning a new scheme, abnormally high rates of injuries, and so on. Grades would spike with better turnover control or even just luck, and if the defense can start to force turnovers too that would be a boon to apply to Dallas's on-paper easy road. We'll see how things stand once another quarter has run its course!

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