FanPost

ESPN's Bill Barnwell Grades Trades & All the Big Money Moves


BB is hot or cold with me, at times he can hit a home run & other times he hits a dribbler back to the pitcher. He does a nice job here going over the signings & trades form this off season. He gives out grades for both teams in trades & then gives out his grade for the FA signings. It looks like he uses a calendar timeline so you can follow along that way. It's amazing when you see how many transactions take place.

So the obvious question becomes what does he think of us? Let's give a look at how our moves rate with Mr Football.

Greg Zuerlein, K, Dallas Cowboys

The deal: Three years, $7.5 million
Grade: B-

After an All-Pro season in 2017, Greg the Leg fell off slightly in 2018 while battling a groin injury and then collapsed in 2019. Zuerlein hit just 72.7% of his field goals and finished 21st in Football Outsiders' kicking metric, which accounts for distance. He went 5-of-11 from 40-to-49 yards after going 41-of-49 on those kicks over his previous seven seasons.

Frankly, NFL teams overreact to small samples when it comes to kickers, and that has happened here with Zuerlein. He has had bad seasons in the past and improved dramatically the following season, like when he hit 74.2% of his kicks as a rookie and followed with a 92.9% rate the following season. I'd be concerned if his groin injury had destroyed his mechanics, but the Cowboys hired former Rams special-teams coach John Fassel to take over that role in Dallas, so if Zuerlein was cooked, I'd expect Fassel to have pushed them in a different direction. The Cowboys are buying low here, and the $2.25 million guaranteed to Zuerlein means he's the favorite over incumbent Kai Forbath, who got a one-year deal to return to Dallas.

Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, Dallas Cowboys

The deal: One year, $4 million
Grade: B

The league just doesn't seem very fond of Clinton-Dix, who now joins his fourth team in three years after Green Bay, Washington and Chicago all decided against offering him a long-term deal. Here, Clinton-Dix reunites with a former coach in Mike McCarthy, who should install Clinton-Dix as the starting free safety coming out of camp.

The Cowboys have struggled at the position for years, and this is a low-risk deal for a player who has -- outside of his abbreviated run with Washington -- generally been an above-average player. Serving as the primary defender in coverage isn't often Clinton-Dix's duty, but he has posted a sub-70 passer rating there in each of the past two seasons. The Bears did drop off against deep passes last season, but they were better over the middle of the field than they were against passes up the sidelines. Run defense has historically been Clinton-Dix's weakness, but at this price, getting a solid defender against the pass makes sense for the Cowboys.

Sean Lee, LB, Dallas Cowboys

The deal: One year, $4.5 million
Grade: C+

Moved into a reserve role after the Cowboys drafted Jaylon Smith and Leighton Vander Esch, Lee is likely overqualified for his part-time position, but injury concerns and the lure of sticking with his only professional team were enough to get him to take a pay cut last year and stick around this offseason. He turns 34 this offseason and might have had a clearer path to a starting role elsewhere, but with Vander Esch recovering from neck surgery, Lee should see plenty of snaps in Dallas in 2020.

Gerald McCoy, DT, Dallas Cowboys

The deal: Three years, $20.3 million
Grade: B-

It was a surprise when the Bucs cut McCoy last year after he made six consecutive Pro Bowls from 2012 to '17, but Tampa was better after replacing McCoy with Ndamukong Suh, and McCoy didn't have his best season in Carolina. The Oklahoma product tied his lowest totals from that Pro Bowl run in sacks (five) and knockdowns (13).

McCoy was also one of the starting defensive tackles on the league's worst run defense by DVOA. The Panthers allowed more yards per carry without him on the field, but they gave up 5.0 yards per pop with him present, and their first-down rate was higher with him on the field. I don't think McCoy was capable of single-handedly saving a decaying Panthers front, and the Bucs added other pieces, but Tampa also went from 31st in rushing DVOA to first in the league after replacing McCoy with Suh.

At this point, McCoy is going to be best as a penetrating interior disruptor who can serve as a team's secondary pass-rusher. That's exactly what he'll be in Dallas, where the Cowboys could move on from Tyrone Crawford. This is a reasonable price, though McCoy's decline over the past few seasons means the Cowboys might want to get out of this deal after one year.

Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys

The deal: Five years, $100 million
Grade: B-

The two teams most impacted by the league and players agreeing to a new CBAat the last moment approached their problem in different ways. Without the ability to use both the franchise and transition tags as planned, the Titans went over the odds to lock up quarterback Ryan Tannehill, which freed up running back Derrick Henry for the franchise tag. The Cowboys went the other way, using the franchise tag on quarterback Dak Prescott and letting Cooper hit free agency unfettered.

It was a dangerous move in case Cooper was bowled over by an offer from a competitive team, but the biggest offer for the former Raiders star appeared to come from Washington, which doesn't yet know what it has in quarterback Dwayne Haskins. In the end, after all the public negotiating the Cowboys did to try to convince Prescott to take a hometown discount, it was Cooper who sacrificed by taking less money to stick around with the team.

Cooper now has the largest deal of any receiver.

Given that the Cowboys traded a first-round pick to acquire Cooper in fall 2018 and then rode several huge games from him to a winning streak and a division title, it's difficult to imagine that any Cooper deal would have come in much below $20 million per season. He could have signed a deal when he was initially traded to the Cowboys or before Jones signed his extension last offseason, but by waiting until Dallas had no choice but to pay up, Cooper ended up getting a top-end deal. You get the feeling Prescott might be watching with admiration.

Blake Jarwin, TE, Dallas Cowboys

The deal: Four years, $22 million
Grade: C+

In a move that might bring an end to Jason Witten's storied career with the Cowboys, Dallas decided to use its free time after franchising Dak Prescott to lock up a restricted free agent. Jarwin is a high-end athlete who moved around the formation at Oklahoma State before settling in as a backup tight end. Dallas mostly keeps Jarwin as an in-line option; offensive coordinator Kellen Moore lined Jarwin up outside only 9% of the time in 2019, while 23% of his snaps (and 39% of his targets) came out of the slot.

If Jarwin can successfully move around the formation and threaten teams as a move tight end, it would help the Cowboys overcome possibly losing Amari Cooper and give Prescott an extra weapon. This deal is relatively modest and could still make sense if Jarwin ends up sticking in a secondary role, but it suggests that the Cowboys think Jarwin is capable of more. At the very least, he can stretch opposing defenses up the seam in a way that the 37-year-old Witten can't.

That was all the deals that are finalized. Since Poe still has some red tape to deal with, we won't ever know what BB thinks of it. He also says nothing about the Aldon Smith signing. We will once again have to wait for the sequel article to come out that is the final edition. We pretty much got B's with a C scattered about, so that's a win for the new crew & now the draft is nearing which will be their next chance to fill out the roster.

Since we had quite the exodus from Dallas this year I will now show those. Were we right to let our boys walk or did we make a mistake? You can quibble about the slow movement in getting Tank, Byron, Amari & Dak signed & some will argue that the lallygagging cost us Byron. Well for those that want to shred the FO for that, humor us with a Fan Post detailing all the info.

Now back to those that think the grass is greener elsewhere

Dan Bailey, K, Minnesota Vikings

The deal: Three years, $12 million
Grade: C-

This deal guarantees Bailey $5 million, which is a big first year for a player the Vikings were about to cut over the summer. After a disappointing debut campaign in Minnesota, the team responded to Bailey's preseason struggles by trading a fifth-round pick for Kaare Vedvik. When Vedvik struggled, the Vikings threw up their hands and cut the former Ravens kicker, handing the job back to Bailey. The longtime Cowboys stalwart responded with a solid season, hitting 93.1% of his field goal tries, although he missed four extra points. Football Outsiders pegged Bailey and the Vikings as the 10th-best kicking group on scoring plays in the league.

It's clear the Vikings are shell-shocked when it comes to kickers and are just going to evaluate guys based on their most recent 20 attempts. Bailey is no different now than he was over the summer or in 2018, when the Vikings wouldn't have given him this deal. It's the wrong way to evaluate kickers. Minnesota realistically needs to reevaluate its kicking infrastructure and plan as opposed to alternately convincing itself that Bailey is either not worthy of a job or worth $5 million.

Jeff Heath, S, Las Vegas Raiders

The deal: Two years, $6.1 million
Grade: C+

It seems like Heath has been with the Cowboys since the turn of the century, but after seven years in Dallas, he is joining Jason Witten and Maliek Collins in moving to the desert. The Raiders have Johnathan Abram coming back after missing virtually all of his rookie season and could move LaMarcus Joyner to free safety after a frustrating first season with the organization.

Heath was stretched as a full-time starter for the Cowboys, but his versatility and willingness to hit make him an above-average third safety if the Raiders use him there. Heath has no guaranteed money after 2020.

Robert Quinn, OLB, Chicago Bears

The deal: Five years, $70 million
Grade: B-

Quinn had a bounce-back year in Dallas, racking up 11.5 sacks and 22 knockdowns in 14 games. By ESPN's pass rush win rate metric, though, the former Rams standout was already a superstar. He posted the league's best PRWR in 2018 and 2019 by a comfortable margin. He has won on 32.6% of his pass-rush attempts the past two seasons, and second-placed T.J. Watt is closer to 17th place than he is to Quinn in first. By another measure, Quinn has created a sack once every 22 pass-rush attempts the past two seasons, which is the fifth-best mark in football for defenders with 400 or more attempts.

Top-10 edge rusher money would put Quinn somewhere around $17 million per season, so it's clear that the league isn't valuing Quinn at the level advanced metrics indicate. Chicago general manager Ryan Pace suggested he "wasn't a Moneyball general manager" upon being hired, and though I'm not exactly sure what that means years later, I don't think he was relying heavily on analytics when he signed Quinn. Either way, with $30 million reportedly fully guaranteed on this contract, this isn't an enormous overpay for an edge rusher.

Of course, the Bears already have the league's largest defensive contract committed to the edge rusher on the other side of the field in Khalil Mack. Cutting Leonard Floyd created $13.2 million in cap space and made the Quinn deal work, but I wonder if this is money the Bears should have committed (at least in part) to a quarterback such as Teddy Bridgewater, a guard or one of the many cornerbacks on the market.

Jason Witten, TE, Las Vegas Raiders

The deal: One year, up to $4.8 million
Grade: C+

After 16 seasons in Dallas, the future Hall of Famer has decided to extend his career and make a trip to Vegas to reunite with a fellow former Monday Night Football commentator in Jon Gruden. At this point, Witten's role is essentially to run short option routes, catch passes and fall down; he ranked 90th in yards after first contact and 97th in air yards per target out of 107 receivers last season.

Witten is past the point of serving as a primary tight end, but as an inline option who frees Darren Waller to move around the formation, he's a logical fit for the Raiders.

Randall Cobb, WR, Houston Texans

The deal: Three years, $27 million
Grade: D+

First things first: I'm considering this grade independent of the DeAndre Hopkins trade. It isn't fair or realistic to consider Cobb as a replacement for one of the league's top receivers, though I suspect we'll all be casting Cobb in that role within the broader story of what Bill O'Brien has done to the Texans. Here, I'm trying to consider whether this signing is a good idea for the Texans with their current, post-Hopkins roster.

I still don't like this move. I can understand the logic of bringing in somebody who can work underneath as a possession receiver while Will Fuller and Kenny Stills head downfield, but Houston already has a competent slot receiver it refuses to give reps to in Keke Coutee. The Texans have two second-round picks and a third-round selection in the deepest draft class for wide receivers in recent memory. I have to imagine they could have grabbed a slot receiver with one of those selections and used this cap space more wisely.

Is Cobb really a difference-maker? This is a receiver who was able to net only a one-year, $5 million deal from the Cowboys last offseason. He had a nice bounce-back season, but it came after his receiving yards per game dropped four years in a row and fell by nearly 50% from his 2014 peak. Dak Prescott's numbers didn't budge with or without Cobb; the quarterback posted a 99.4 passer rating and a 71.6 QBR with Cobb on the field, then hit a 100.5 passer rating and 73.8 QBR without Cobb in the lineup.

At a similar price to last season's, Cobb would be a viable addition for the Texans. By handing him a contract with $18.75 million in guarantees, the Texans are buying that Cobb will improve on his 2019 numbers, if not come close to the player who was a Pro Bowler in 2014. Cobb could be the beneficiary of a lot of low-efficiency targets within this offense, but I'm not optimistic that O'Brien is using his money wisely here.

Byron Jones, CB, Miami Dolphins

The deal: Five years, $82.5 million
Grade: C+

After he spent the early part of his Cowboys career as an inconsistent safety, Dallas moved Jones back to cornerback full-time and reaped the benefits the past two seasons. He was a revelation in 2018 and continued to play very well in 2019. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, opposing quarterbacks completed an even 50% of their passes when Jones was the nearest defender in coverage last season, which was the seventh-best mark in the league for corners with at least 250 coverage snaps. Opposing quarterbacks mostly left Jones alone, as he was targeted on a mere 13.0% of pass attempts last season; the only corner with 250 or more coverage snaps who was targeted less frequently was the Chargers' Casey Hayward.

There are some fair quibbles. Jones didn't follow No. 1 receivers, as about one-third of his targets as the nearest defender in coverage came against the opposing team's top wideout. More than 95% of his snaps came on the right side of the defense in both 2018 and 2019. He also hasn't been a ball hawk, racking up two interceptions and three forced fumbles in five seasons with the Cowboys. Interception totals can fluctuate wildly from year to year, but the Dolphins can't count on Jones to force a half-dozen takeaways in 2020.

Of course, if Xavien Howardintercepts seven passes again, the Dolphins will be just fine with the league's most expensive cornerback duo. On one hand, signing Jones limits Howard's value. Miami moved Howard to both sides of the field during his abbreviated five-game season in 2019, often to cover the opposing team's top wide receiver. The Dolphins have to choose between playing sides, which would limit Howard's value, or moving their corners to account for matchups, which would put Jones in an unfamiliar role.

At the same time, opposing teams now can't hide their No. 1 wide receiver from a top-tier cornerback. The Dolphins aren't exactly in a division with great receiving corps -- the AFC East is currently deepest in the slot -- but it's interesting to see coach Brian Flores play things like one of the rare Patriots veterans who seems to have learned from what Bill Belichick values in New England.

Over the past decade, Belichick has repeatedly focused his investments in the secondary while letting talented edge rushers and defensive linemen leave in free agency. The names have changed over time, and Belichick's defenses haven't always been great, but he clearly espouses building from the secondary. With the NFL's two highest-paid cornerbacks, the Dolphins will hope that great coverage will form the basis of a productive defense. Given that he is a 27-year-old corner with two years of excellent football under his belt, it's no surprise that Jones just soared to the top of the cornerback market.

So there you go, none of the guys we lost got high grades so we did the right thing to let them go after seeing the deals they got. Many of the deals across the league got B's & C's, with only a few D's & only one F. That one F goes to BoB in HOU for his gaffe with Hopkins that would have cost a GM his job. Then again, HOU has no true GM at the moment & the FO is in the such disarray they let BoB make the decisions. This is also a franchise that entered the league & chose Casserly to lead the team nowhere. There is a reason they don't have a trophy case in Houston, the Texans are a joke.

So you can scroll through & see all the numbers & facts about any signing. This is a good resource if you want that info. BB did a great job here.

link

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28871296/2020-nfl-free-agency-trade-grades-bill-barnwell-tracks-every-big-signing-move

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