Detailed breakdown of the Cowboys odds of winning each game and Super Bowl chances for 2020

We are getting closer, hopefully, to the 2020 NFL season. It’s still no sure thing as the NFL continues to tinker around the edges of the schedule, like the recent report that the preseason will only be two games, but the plan is to still start the season in early September. As such, analysis of the season continues on.

Recently, Sportsbook Scout, a sports betting analytics site, reached out to BTB to see if we’d be interested in a detailed breakdown on the Cowboys season using point spreads and other information to create a season preview for the Cowboys. We said we’d like to take a look at that information, and now we are passing it on to you.

Using SRS rankings, they have created an NFL Power Ranking that has the Cowboys slotted fifth behind Baltimore, Kansas City, New Orleans and San Francisco. (You can read more about SRS here.)

Here’s more about the Cowboys.

The Dallas Cowboys have approximately an average strength of schedule (17th) according to the implied SRS ratings for the upcoming season. Overall, the Cowboys are favored in 12 out of 16 games, with the only significant underdog being at Baltimore in Week 13 (+7).

To start the season, the Cowboys are favored in six out of their first seven games. The Cowboys are only an underdog in Week 3 at Seattle (+2) during that stretch.

In order to simplify the schedule analysis, I have broken down the Cowboys schedule into five groups: Likely Win, Lean Win, Toss Up, Lean Loss, Likely Loss.

Likely Win (8 Games with > 60% Win Probability)

Week 2 vs. Atlanta Falcons: -7 | 67.3% win probability

Week 4 vs. Cleveland Browns: -5.5 | 63.3% win probability

Week 5 vs. New York Giants: -8.5 | 71.4% win probability

Week 6 vs. Arizona Cardinals: -7.5 | 68.7% win probability

Week 7 at Washington Redskins: -8.5 | 71.4% win probability

Week 12 vs. Washington Redskins: -13 | 82.2% win probability

Week 14 at Cincinnati Bengals: -8 | 70.0% win probability

Week 17 at New York Giants: -6 | 64.6% win probability

Lean Win (2 Games with 55-60% Win Probability)

Week 1 at Los Angeles Rams: -2.5 | 55.2% win probability

Week 9 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: -3.5 | 57.9% win probability

Toss Up (3 Games with 45-55% Win Probability)

Week 10 at Minnesota Vikings: -0.5 | 49.8% win probability

Week 15 vs. San Francisco 49ers: +1| 45.7% win probability

Week 16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles: -1.5 | 52.5% win probability

Lean Loss (2 Games with 40-45% Win Probability)

Week 3 at Seattle Seahawks: +1.5 | 44.4 win probability

Week 8 at Philadelphia Eagles: +2 | 43.0% win probability

Likely Loss (1 Game with < 40% Win Probability)

Week 13 at Baltimore Ravens: +6.5 | 30.9% win probability

Adding it All Up

When you put it all together, the Cowboys season breaks down like this:

8 Likely Wins

2 Lean Win

3 Toss Up

2 Lean Loss

1 Likely Loss

Based on the current point spreads, the Cowboys seem very likely to win at least 8 games. A favorable early season schedule could set them up with some momentum going into the back half of the season.

NFC East 2020 Win Totals: Where the Cowboys Stand

The NFC East appears to be a two team race: Dallas and Philadelphia. The implied SRS rankings line up with this as well with Dallas ranked 5th and Philadelphia 7th.

If Dallas slips up against either division rival (New York or Washington), Philadelphia could take the NFC East.

PointsBet Sportsbook has set the following over/under lines for season win totals in the NFC East:

Dallas: 9.5 wins

Philadelphia: 9.5 wins

New York: 6 wins

Washington: 5 wins

In order for the Cowboys to go over 9.5 wins, they would need to win only 2 of the following games (assuming they win their Likely Win games):

Week 1 at Los Angeles Rams: -2.5 | 55.2% win probability

Week 9 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: -3.5 | 57.9% win probability

Week 10 at Minnesota Vikings: -0.5 | 49.8% win probability

Week 15 vs. San Francisco 49ers: +1| 45.7% win probability

Week 16 vs. Philadelphia Eagles: -1.5 | 52.5% win probability

I have highlighted (italics) the games that I think are the most likely Cowboys to win. A Week 1 game at the Rams with a new coach could be a tall order, but the odds say they are favored to win. The next most likely win would be vs. Pittsburgh in Week 9 (58% win probability).

Dallas Cowboys Odds to Win the Super Bowl

The Dallas Cowboys odds to win the Super Bowl currently sit at +1700 at PointsBet Sportsbook (5.6% chance). This is the 6th best odds of any team behind the following:

Kansas City +500 (16.7% chance)

Baltimore +600 (14.3% chance)

San Francisco +900 (10% chance)

Tampa Bay +1000 (9.1% chance)

New Orleans +1100 (8.3% chance)

Kansas City and Baltimore are in the AFC, while Tampa Bay and New Orleans are in the same division. If the Cowboys can eek out the #2 seed in the NFC, then they would have home field advantage against either one of those teams in the playoffs.

A potential NFC Championship game at San Francisco (implied SRS ranking of 4th, one spot above Dallas), could be a toss up.

NFC East and Playoff Odds: Take Care of Business

Other markets that are relevant to the Cowboys this season are the NFC East champion odds and odds to make the playoffs.

The Cowboys have a 52% implied probability (-110) to win the NFC East according to PointsBet, slightly edging out Philadelphia (4635%, +115). The division matchups, particularly against the Eagles in Week 8 (+2) and Week 16 (-1.5) could decide the NFC East champion.

In terms of playoff odds, both the Cowboys (-233) and Eagles (-213) are heavy favorites to make it. Teams evolve over the course of a season, so it will be interesting to see how Dallas performs under new coach Mike McCarthy.

In order for the Cowboys to miss the playoffs, they would likely need to win 7 games or fewer. Assuming they win the 7 games they are the most heavily favored in, that would mean the Cowboys would have to lose the following Likely Win and Lean Win games:

Week 1 at Los Angeles Rams: -2.5 | 55.2% win probability

Week 4 vs. Cleveland Browns: -5.5 | 63.3% win probability

Week 9 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: -3.5 | 57.9% win probability

These losses would be In addition to losing the rest of the Toss Up, Lean Lose, and Likely Lose games. It seems like it would take a major injury or a rough transition to a new head coach for this to happen.

The Cowboys are setup to be Super Bowl contenders in 2020. Will Mike McCarthy take them to the next level? Only time will tell.

Thanks to our friends over at Sportsbook Scout for sharing this information with us.