FanPost

Why I think the Cowboys will go 12-4 or better this year

In May, I penned a fanpost titled "What do Expected Point Added tell us about the 2019 Cowboys." I think, at the core, it tells us that the team is going to be better this year, likely by several games. I think the Cowboys are going to go 12-4 or better this season. Here are my reasons.

(Sorry no one can comment at the moment. But perhaps you eventually will be able to. You can still Rec posts, however.)

1. If you look at EPA from last year, the Cowboys offense was second in EPA with 214.7 points, behind only the Ravens at 249.1. It was good enough to win 13 games.

We were also probably second in passing EPA at 179.23. I say probably because passing EPA included playoff games, which moved the Chiefs and Saints ahead of us. We were also second in rushing EPA at 37.08. The Ravens had a ridiculous 100.6 rushing EPA.

Overall, the offense had a positive EPA in 14 of 16 games, which tied us with the Chiefs and was one game ahead of the Ravens. And, other than the Saints game with a positive 1.48 EPA, our offense was positive by 8.13 points or more per game, and in double digits in 12 of the 16 games. This was BETTER than the Chiefs or the Ravens offense.

If you don't understand EPA, the main point to glean from it is if your offensive, defensive, and special teams EPA, added together, come out positive, you are going to win the game.

So the Cowboys offense played well enough to win at least 13 of the 16 games last year. And had a 14th game in positive territory.

Will the offense drop off? Well, they've lost Travis Frederick, and that's a significant loss. They also lost Randall Cobb and Jason Witten. But they've replaced them with CeeDee Lamb and more snaps for Blake Jarwin, who was much more productive per snap than Witten last year. They have Tony Pollard in his second year. Zeke didn't miss training camp. Kellen Moore is in his second year. I expect the offense to be better.

2. Where the team is going to be a LOT better is on special teams. The EPA last year for special teams was positive in only 2 of 16 games. Special teams EPA tipped 4 games from a positive EPA between offense and defense into negative territory - Jets, Pats, Packers, Bears.

With John Fassel now the special teams coach, I expect the Cowboys special teams to not lose games. For example, the Chiefs special teams had a positive score in 9 of 16 games and an overall positive score. If Dallas had had that, we would have probably been 12-4 last year. More than any other squad, special teams hinges on coaching IMO, so I don't see any reason we can't have a big rebound here.

But we also have a better kicker than we started with last year, and I expect Fassel will make use of some great return men in Tony Pollard on kickoffs and CeeDee Lamb on punt returns. We shouldn't have nearly the worst starting field position again in 2020.

3. Even defensive EPA should be better. We were above average last year, ranking 13th, with a negative 37.08 score. Only 6 NFL teams had a positive EPA on defense, so some negative scoring is common. Last year, the defense hurt us the most in the games against the Vikings, Bears, and Bills.

Why will our defensive EPA be better? I believe so, mostly because of turnovers. See below.

4. The team was 1-6 in close games last year. This will even out. Regression to the mean is often cited as a reason a team will rebound. It will apply to Dallas in 2020. In past year, Dak Prescott has been at or near the top of the NFL in game winning drives and 4th quarter comebacks. He didn't have any of those last year. Expect him to pull out some games late this year, as he has in the past.

5. Dallas will get a lot more turnovers in 2020. This is the main reason the defensive EPA will improve. We are going to play a multiple defense that attempts to disguise coverages pre-snap, and we are going to blitz a LOT more. In other words, we are going to match our aggressive offense with an aggressive defense that seeks to force mistakes and gets turnovers. It will happen.

Turnovers will then translate into improved EPA and more wins.

6. Mike McCarthy will help Kellen Moore improve the offense. McCarthy is less conservative than Jason Garrett. He will go for the jugular. He won't have any qualms about scoring points even when we are ahead. As I've said many times, McCarthy will take the lid off the jar - in other words, he will allow the Cowboys to be much more like New England where the point of every drive is to score. I also expect McCarthy to follow analytics and go for it much more often on 4th down.

Conclusion

It's pretty simple. EPA is the key.

1. Offense will again be at or near the top of the NFL in overall EPA, and will be good enough to win nearly every game.

2. Defense will be better in EPA by being more aggressive and forcing more turnovers.

3. Special teams EPA will no longer be an anchor that loses games, and might even help win a game or two.

4. The Cowboys record in close games will revert towards the mean and therefore be better.

All of it will be driven by much better coaching than we've had for years.

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