New England is never an easy place to get a win. Well, at least it used to be. The absence of Tom Brady has left the Patriots and their fan base in an unfamiliar headspace. Ever since the breakup things have not looked so good for the Patriots especially against the spread. In 2020, the Patriots finished 7-9 ATS mirroring their overall regular season record. Thus far in 2021, they are sitting at a mediocre 2-3 overall and ATS record. To make matters worse, New England has not won a game at home this season sporting an 0-3 home record. While their ex-QB enjoys his time nearly throwing Lombardi trophies into the Hillsborough River under the sunny rays of Tampa Bay, the Patriots are busy nursing offensive line injuries, acclimating their new rookie QB, and playing catch-up behind the red hot Buffalo Bills.
Meanwhile in Texas, the Dallas Cowboys are off to one of their hottest starts since 2016 sitting at 4-1 overall and 5-0 ATS. Their high speed offense is getting better week by week and their defense is continuing to improve upon their abysmal 2020 season. To top it all off, their "Comeback Player of the Year" lock of a quarterback is playing lights out and Zeke Elliott is hungrier than ever.
The thing about the Dallas Cowboys is that they can beat you in so many different ways. Stack the box against the run and Dak will pick you apart. Attempt to take away the passing game and you are setting yourself up for an Elliott and Pollard track meet. I have yet to come up with a name for this duo as catchy as Cleveland’s "Chunt", but I am working on it. To say the least, the Patriots have their hands full this weekend. A tall task even for the great Bill Belichick.
The New England Patriots are 5th in the league in pass defense only giving up 206.6 yards per game, but only sit at number 15 in overall rush defense. There’s no doubt that Kellen Moore will look to heavily incorporate Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard into his offensive game plan this week. Look for them both to have a great day on the ground.
The Dallas Cowboys’ pass defense is definitely a weak spot minus the 6 interception start from Deion Sanders...I mean Trevon Diggs. They currently sit at spot 31 in the league giving up an average of 311 passing yards per game through 5 weeks. Mac Jones has an opportunity to take a big stride against a spotty pass defense. Look for him to have his best passing game to date.
Prediction: Dallas: 35 Patriots: 20
Pick: Dallas -3.5
While the Cowboys continue to roll putting up the second highest amount of points per game in the NFL, the Patriots are struggling to put W’s in the win column only beating the helpless Jets and barely skating by against the Watson-less Texans. Although the Patriots were able to cover a 7 point spread against the Buccaneers and a very emotional Brady, a 4 point cushion is simply not enough against a juggernaut offense like Dallas.