FanPost

Brown vs Diggs, A Case of Initial Impressions

We saw the results of the first game for our boundary CB’s.  One was clearly better.  Diggs was world class and Brown was on the other end of the spectrum.  All the media coverage and discussion has reflected those stark statistics.

Gm  Com  Tgt       %	Yards 	Rating	

1B  8    9      88.9	127	155.8		
1D  1    5	20.0	 10       0.0

But let us look at the season as a whole and the story SHOULD change.  Diggs continues to excel.  Yet the results for Brown are significantly different.

Season

. Com	Tgt 	%  	Yards  	Rating	

B  27	45	60.0	399	85.3
D  18	38	47.4	248	29.2

This change should have been reported after each game.  Yet instead of discussing each game results, we have continued to use the season results.  The first game skewed those significantly.

Brown vs Diggs by game
						
Gm   Com Tgt 	%  	Yards  	Rating	

1B    8	  9	88.9	127	155.8		
1D    1	  5	20.0	 10       0.0

2B    4	  7	57.1	 42	114.3	
2D    5	  7	71.4     81	 70.2		
 
3B    6	  8	75.0	 72	 62.5			
3D    4	  7	57.1     66	 49.4

4B    7	 13	53.8	107      81.2		
4D    2	  7	28.6	 14	  0.0

5B    2   8     25.0   	 51      14.1		
5D    6	 12     50.0  	 77      35.8

Note the changes from game one to game.

Brown		Game	Game	
Statistic	1	5	Diff

Compl 	        8	2	6 fewer
Target		9	8	1 fewer
Compl percent	89 %    25 %	64 % less
Yards		127 	51	76 fewer
Rating		155.8	14.1	141.7 less

Brown has better results over time.  He had a bad first game.  Too many folks get an initial impression that lingers.  Yet he has consistently gotten better each game.

Diggs

Compl		1	6	5 more
Target		5	12	7 more
Comp percent	20 %	50 %	30 % more
Yards		10	77	67 more	
Rating		00	35.8	35.8 more
		
Obviously, Diggs with slightly higher results is still outstanding.  This is a regression to the mean, as cannot expect the first game for every game.

A look at the advanced statistics reveals a more nuanced story.

Advanced Statistics	

Ga  Yds/  ADOT  Yds  Air  YAC	Yards/ 	YAC/
    tgt              yards      comp	comp                                 

1B  14.1  14.3	127  94	  33	15.9	  4.1
1D   2.0   6.6	 10   7	   3	10.0	  0.4
	
2B   6.0   8.3	42   17	  25	10.5	  3.6
2D  11.6  10.4	81   55	  26    16.2	  5.2

3B   9.4  10.4	72   39	  33	12.5	  5.5
3D   9.4   7.0  66   16	  50	16.5	 12.5

4B   8.2  11.7	107  50	  57	15.3	  8.1
4D   2.0  12.3	 14   3	  11     7.0	  5.5
	 		
5B   6.4  15.6   51  51    0     25.5	  0.0  
5D   6.4  11.2   77  23   54     12.8	  8.0  	

SEASON
B    8.9  12.2	399 251	 148	14.8	  5.5
D    6.5   9.9	248 104	 144	13.8	  8.0	

Brown has consistently been targeted deeper and has more completions than Diggs and by definition that means Brown has a worse result in yards completed.  

Many see only the total yards.  Look at the YAC for both with Brown having only 4 more yards of YAC despite having more completions.  Brown does not allow more YAC per completion.

If you minimize the first game, [which was bad] you can see the improvement over the season.   Do not base your entire opinion of Brown just on one game.	

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