The Dallas Cowboys are going on the road this week to take on the New England Patriots in a Week 6 clash. Dallas is sporting a 4-1 record that comes with a four-game winning streak. The Patriots are looking less formidable with a 2-3 record and both wins coming over lesser quality teams.
Our friends over at DraftKings Sportsbook currently have the Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites over the Patriots. The Cowboys started as four-point favorites but it has dropped a little. The Cowboys are expected to win pretty much everywhere you look. The folks over at FiveThirtyEight have them at a 54% chance of winning, while ESPN has them at 56%
As for the Cowboys game, most everybody is picking Dallas, but will they cover that 3.5-point spread?
MDS’s take: The Patriots barely escaped with a win over the Texans last week. The other Texas team isn’t going to take it so easy on them.
MDS’s pick: Cowboys 34, Patriots 27.
Florio’s take: America’s Team 1.0 gets the better of America’s Team 2.0, and the Pats fall to a stunning 0-4 at home.
Florio’s pick: Cowboys 31, Patriots 23.
Easy covers. here.
Bill Belichick hasn’t lost four consecutive home games since he was the head coach of the Cleveland Browns 26 years ago, but he faces that prospect with the Patriots getting 4.5 points from the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday at Gillette Stadium.
Half the panel thinks the Pats will have enough fight to cover if not win, but the other half is finding it hard to believe in a New England team that has played just one impressive game all season (against the New York Jets, at that).
Davenport on Dallas: “We figured that the Cowboys would sport a dynamic offense in 2021, but the play of the defense has been a major surprise. Micah Parsons made the switch from off-ball linebacker to edge-rusher look easy, and cornerback Trevon Diggs has intercepted all the passes ever while staking a case for Defensive Player of the Year honors. Add in a Cowboys offense diverse enough that Belichick can’t hobble it by taking one player away, and you have a recipe for a double-digit victory for the visitors.”
Rogers on the Pats: The Cowboys have looked every bit of a Super Bowl contender so far, but I still don’t expect this game to get out of hand. They’ve won by 20, 8 and 24 points in their last three matchups, so they’re due for a close contest. Will Dak Prescott and Co. grab their fifth win? Highly likely. Does Mac Jones take care of the ball enough in the short passing game to keep it close? I think so.”
We suspect this one will be more divisive than most deadlocks.
Gagnon: New England
Kenyon: New England
Rogers: New England
Score Prediction: Cowboys 28, Patriots 23
This panel is split between the two teams, but their overall score prediction covers the spread.
The Patriots escaped with a win in Houston, but the way they got there was almost a disaster — mistakes upon mistakes on offense while their defense was exposed by Davis Mills. Neither of those is a good thing when you are set to face Dak Prescott and this Cowboys offense. The Patriots are rarely embarrassed at home, but this could be different.
Cowboys vs. Patriots Prediction: Cowboys 30, Patriots 20
Another easy cover.
The Patriots have the No. 5 defense in the league while the Cowboys have the No. 2 offense. The Dallas defense may not look amazing when it comes to yards allowed per game, but they are No. 2 in turnover differential at +7. I have to admit that this does have the feeling of a trap game. The Patriots at home as an underdog has a scary ring to it, but I think the Cowboys are just the better team.
The Patriots were down 22-9 against the Houston Texans in the third quarter last week and made Davis Mills look like a rookie of the year candidate. Naturally, I’m going to question how good this Patriots defense is, and wonder about the kind of damage Dak Prescott could do in Foxboro. Prescott has thrown 22 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games. That’s five more than the Patriots have thrown as a team since the start of last season (21 games).
Here’s the stat you probably care about the most: I’m undefeated in picking Cowboys games ATS this year and I made them a best bet to cover over the last two weeks. I’m going back to the well.
The pick: Cowboys -3.5
Projected score: Cowboys 28-23
Cowboys covering again.
Over at CBS Sports, you have seven of eight NFL writers choosing the Cowboys to cover the spread.