FanPost

Ducks in a Row ranking of teams after week 6

At the quarter mark of the season, I created a list of the best teams in the league.  I continued the ranking last week and update it today.

To keep the league divided into five groups, each week I will adjust the number of wins for each column.  Over time the distribution will look more like a typical bell curve.

.		NUMBER OF TEAMS WITH WINS

	 TER  	BEL	AVE	ABO	GREAT
			AVE		AVE
wins
Wk 4	0	1	2	3	4
Wk 5	0	1	2,3	4	5
Wk 6	0	1	2,3,4	5	6

# teams
Wk 4	2	10	7	12	1
Wk 5	2	5	17	7	1		
Wk 6	1	5	20	5	1


We have some quirks of scheduling, such as who plays home games, good teams against poor teams, night games against travel.  New Orleans has practiced out of state due to weather.

Byes and ties will affect the number, but as the number of games played increases the curve will become apparent.  This week, four teams had byes:  NO, SF, ATL, and NYJ.  You can only play the teams on your schedule.  Some divisions are better than others, and your placement last year determines who you play.

RANKING THE BEST TEAMS

One simple way to look at the top teams is to look at who the team played and their records.  I note each teams record, and the combined record for all the opponents the team played.  I break ties by looking at the number of wins for the opponents.

Over time, we have more clarity.  So, we have a much better bell curve.  This week we have added all the teams to ranking as the curve is beginning to normalize.

RANK	TM	REC	OPP 	# WINS for the
			REC	Teams they lost to

1	AZI	6-0	18-17		N/A
	
2	LAR	5-1	19-17		 6
3	TB	5-1	17-18		 5
4	DAL	5-1	17-19		 5
5	BAL	5-1	16-20		 4
6	GB	5-1	15-19		 3

7	LAC	4-2	22-14		10
8	LV	4-2	19-17		 7
9	TEN	4-2	16-19	         7
10	CIN	4-2	15-21		 8
11	BUF	4-2	14-22		 7
	
12	PIT     3-3	22-14		13
13	CHI	3-3	21-15		13
14      KC	3-3	20-16		13
15	CLV	3-3	20-15		13
16	MIN	3-3	18-18		13
17      DEN	3-3	15-20		12
18      CAR	3-3	15-19		10
19	NO	3-2	13-17		 4

20	PHI 	2-4	21-14		16
21	SEA	2-4	19-16		15
22	IND	2-4	18-18		16
23	WTF	2-4	17-17		14
24	NE	2-4	16-18		14
25	SF	2-3	15-15		13
26	ATL	2-3	11-18		 9

27	NYG	1-5	20-14		17
28      JAX	1-5	19-17		18
29	MIA     1-5	19-18		16
30	HOU	1-5	15-21		14
31	NYJ	1-4	14-15		10

32      DET	0-6	22-13		22

ARI still has the best record in the league, but they have not played the best teams by their records.  Ironically, DET has played the teams with the best combined record.  Though is is obvious that ARI has affected the records of the other teams by beating them ,and DET the same by losing.

This does NOT eliminate the other teams who can still improve over the season. Nor does this simplistic ranking account for routs vs close games or other indicators, but it is interesting.

		NUMBER OF TEAMS WITH WINS

	TER	BEL	    AVERAGE		ABO	GREAT
		AVE				AVE

	
Wins	0	1	2	3	4	5	6

# tm	1	5	     	20		5	1

	1	5	7	8	5	5	1

				PIT
			PHI	CHI
			SEA	KC
		NYG	IND	CLV	LAC	LAR
		JAX	WTF	MIN	LV	TB
		MIA	NE	DEN	TEN	DAL
	        HOU	SF	CAR	CIN	BAL
	DET 	NYJ	ATL	NO	BUF	GB	ARI

TRENDS for NFC East

As we have not noted all the teams in earlier rankings, the trend is hard to fully contruct.  Yet, for the NFC EAST, the pattern is still clear.  Dallas has separated from the crowd.  Yet there is still a lot of season to go.

Week	DAL	WTF	PHI	NYG

4	2	NR	NR	NR
5	3	NR	NR	NR
6	4	23	20	27


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