Examining what the rest of the season could look like for Trevon Diggs’ interception numbers

It has been often said that two thirds of the earth is covered by water. The other third is covered by Dallas Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs.

Mandatory jokes aside, the Cowboys seem to have one of the tried-and-true ball-hawks in the NFL on their roster, and it is a welcome difference from what we have grown accustomed to seeing from this secondary over the course of this last quarter century.

Diggs has five interceptions through the first four games of the season which means if we go by the always-reliable on-pace statistics that he is going to average more than an interception per game for the rest of the season. Obviously this is not the case, but it sure is fun to say out loud.

Getting closer to reality though, just what could the rest of the season look like for Diggs? No one is saying that his current pace is impossible to keep up, but history tells us it will likely slow.

Here is what all history tells us when it comes to what Diggs is currently doing.

Trevon Diggs might slow down in terms of generating interceptions, but he will still remain well-above average

With the help of BTB’s Aidan Davis we wanted to figure out whether or not Trevon Diggs was going to break the NFL’s record for most interceptions in a season. Seriously, though, we wanted to see what we can expect from him over the course of the 2021 season.

Diggs’ pace of 1.25 interceptions per game is not exactly sustainable as noted, and for what it’s worth the highest in NFL history is .8 per game. So a dip is likely coming soon. Generally speaking players who have forced more than three turnovers through four weeks (which obviously encapsulates Diggs) go on to outperform the league average in a given season.

A reminder that the group analyzed here is players with at least three takeaways during a season’s first four games. The X-Axis here notes how many interceptions each of them could have had across the rest of their respective seasons and the Y-Axis notes just how often that each total was reached.

You can see that Diggs is very likely going to outperform the average (he has an over 60% chance to do so) here in 2021 but that the number of interceptions that he could have across the rest of the season shrinks in likelihood as it grows in quantity. None of this is to say that Diggs can’t do or accomplish the impossible, but it is obviously not something that has happened all too often.

Diggs is actually tied for the best start that any of these players have ever had

While we are all extremely happy about what Diggs has done through the first four games of the season we might not even be paying it enough attention or giving it its due credit.

Obviously we have studied the highest number of interceptions through a season’s first four games and as you know Diggs has five. You will note that nobody else has more than that. Trevon Diggs just tied the record for most interceptions through four games with five.

Time will tell what the rest of the season has in store for Diggs as far as interceptions are concerned. This is a unique thing given that opposing quarterbacks could choose to just avoid him which will make it seem like his rate is slowing when his impact is still being felt in a different way.

Keep it up, Trevon.