The Dallas Cowboys go on the road for a Week 11 clash with the Kansas City Chiefs. Dallas is sporting a 7-2 record, and are feeling good about themselves after crushing the Falcons last week 43-3. The Chiefs have fought their way to a 6-4 record and are coming off an impressive win over the Las Vegas Raiders.
Our friends over at DraftKings Sportsbook currently have the Cowboys as 2.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs. The line hasn’t changed from early in the week. The folks over at FiveThirtyEight have the Cowboys at a 40% chance of winning, while ESPN has them at 50.3%.
As for the Cowboys game, let’s see what people are thinking.
MDS’s take: The Chiefs looked very good against the Raiders on Sunday night, but I just think the Cowboys are the better team.
MDS’s pick: Cowboys 24, Chiefs 23.
Florio’s take: The Cowboys would be regarded as the best team in the league but for their Week Nine step-on-a-rake game against the Broncos. Dallas won’t step on a rake against the former AFL team that used to be in Dallas.
Florio’s pick: Cowboys 30, Chiefs 24.
We got an unanimous decision the Cowboys will win and obviously cover.
Our final two Sunday games are deadlocks, starting with the Kansas City Chiefs laying 2.5 points at home against a Dallas Cowboys team that ranks No. 3 in the NFL in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders.
Gagnon on Kansas City: “To bet Dallas with this line, you really do have to believe they’ll win straight-up at Arrowhead. The way the Chiefs looked while redeeming themselves last week, there’s no way I’m betting on that. The Cowboys have been the better team this season, but the Chiefs remain the better team overall, and we’ve seen a correction in recent weeks. We can’t just forget Kansas City’s pre-Week 10 struggles, but that team has earned the benefit of the doubt in recent weeks. Besides, we also shouldn’t forget the dud the Cowboys put up against the Broncos in Week 9.”
O’Donnell on Dallas: “This one is simple for me. In what should be a shootout and possibly one of the more entertaining games of the entire season, I expect the Cowboys to upend the Chiefs. Having the points in my back pocket is just insurance in the event of a wild ending to the game.”
Fair enough, and stalwart left tackle Tyron Smith’s potential return to the Cowboys lineup counts for something too. But the jury is hung, and Gagnon has led the pack on paper thus far in 2021. It’s not an easy call.
Davenport: Kansas City
Gagnon: Kansas City
Kenyon: Kansas City
Score Prediction: Chiefs 30, Cowboys 27
It’s a split on who wins, but the score prediction falls just short of a Cowboys cover.
Given the performances of these two teams last week, this line feels about right. We have two good offenses against two less-than-stellar defenses. This feels very much like a game where 40 points might not be enough for one team and the over is very much in play.
Cowboys vs. Chiefs Prediction: Chiefs 43, Cowboys 40
Not a win or a cover.
This should be one of the more-entertaining games of the season. The Chiefs have rediscovered their mojo after victories against the Raiders and Packers. Kansas City has a +3 turnover ratio in those games. Dallas, meanwhile, is trying to keep up for the top seed in the NFC. Mahomes and Prescott will put on a show, but we’re sticking with the home team.
Pick: Chiefs 31, Cowboys 28
Not a win or a cover, part two.
Over at CBS Sports, three of seven NFL writers are taking the Cowboys to cover the spread.