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After three straight weeks in which the Cowboys ended the day with a win while fueling discussion over whether ugly wins should really be celebrated, the NFL served up a stark reminder of how hard wins are to come by. The Buccaneers got shut out by the Saints, the Cardinals got blown out by the Lions, and the Packers were one two-point conversion away from losing to the Tyler Huntley-led Ravens.
The craziness of Sunday’s slate of games catapulted the Cowboys into the second seed in the NFC, just behind Green Bay, with three games remaining on the year. It also served as evidence of just how even things are throughout the league, making it less surprising to see Dallas continue to rise up to the top in quite a few analytical rankings.
Cowboys Efficiency at a Glance
| DVOA | DVOA Rank | DVOA Rank Previous Week | Weighted DVOA | Weighted DVOA Rank |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DVOA | DVOA Rank | DVOA Rank Previous Week | Weighted DVOA | Weighted DVOA Rank |
Offense | 13.4% | 6th | 9th | 11.3% | 7th |
Defense | -15.2% | 2nd | 1st | -19.1% | 1st |
Special Teams | 2.2% | 6th | 5th | 4.4% | 5th |
Overall | 30.9% | 1st | 1st | 34.8% | 1st |
The key thing here is that the Cowboys are now second in total DVOA in the NFL, behind just the Buccaneers. And they are once again the only team to rank in the top ten in DVOA on offense, defense, and special teams. All three phases saw a boost in efficiency from this week, too.
For those curious about the Packers - who need to lose at least one of their remaining three games for Dallas to have a shot at the top seed - they rank tenth in overall DVOA. That all comes from their second-ranked offense, as they’re 22nd in defensive DVOA and dead last in special teams DVOA. Two of their three remaining opponents, Cleveland and Minnesota, aren’t too far behind in total DVOA, ranking 15th and 13th respectively.
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The EPA-based team tiers aren’t as high on the Cowboys, but do still show them being among the league’s best. Dallas now leads the league in defensive EPA per play while the offense is getting closer and closer to the league average line. Still, they’re one of the NFL’s top seven teams by EPA and one of the NFC’s top five.
Offense
Cowboys Offensive Efficiency
| Grade | Rank |
---|---|---|
| Grade | Rank |
Offensive DVOA | 13.4% | 6th |
Pass DVOA | 31.7% | 6th |
Run DVOA | -4.0% | 13th |
The box score may not have reflected it, but the Cowboys got back into their rhythm from earlier in the year on Sunday. That was reflected in an uptick in DVOA grade this week, even if they remained at eight in the rankings. The run game, in particular, saw a statistically significant jump in efficiency with Connor Williams back in the lineup.
Perhaps the most telling split for Dallas has been their offensive performances between home and away games. The Cowboys rank in the top five in offensive efficiency at home this year, with the Broncos game being the only such game in which the offense failed to score at least 30 points. After seeing a modest increase in DVOA this past week, we could be nearing a big boom as they return to Dallas.
Dak Prescott’s Efficiency
| Grade | Rank |
---|---|---|
| Grade | Rank |
QBR | 54.9 | 9th |
EPA | 85.8 | 7th |
CPOE | 2.2 | T-5th |
DVOA | 21.2% | 3rd |
DYAR | 1379 | 3rd |
It was a good week for Dak Prescott regardless of what you might have heard. He finished sixth among all quarterbacks in both QBR and EPA this week, a significant step up from recent performances. Of course, it’s just one game so it won’t affect his season-long rankings too much, as you can see.
It should be noted that Prescott’s performance Sunday saw the quarterback go against his usual tendencies. He was bottom five in both intended air yards and throws into tight windows while being among the bottom ten in air yards to the sticks. None of those are normal for him, and reflect a shift in his approach to the conservative, deep coverages Dak has been seeing lately. It clearly worked.
Cowboys Offensive Line Efficiency
| Grade | Rank |
---|---|---|
| Grade | Rank |
Adjusted Line Yards | 4.80 | 2nd |
RB Yards | 4.68 | 5th |
Adjusted Sack Rate | 5.6% | 9th |
Pass Block Win Rate | 58% | 23rd |
Run Block Win Rate | 73% | 6th |
It was a very good day for the Connor Williams apologists. The run game was noticeably better and Prescott even had more time to throw than he has in recent weeks. Plus, we came oh-so-close to a touchdown reception for Fullback Connor McGovern™. Maybe next week.
In an interesting move, the Cowboys rotated between Ty Nsehke and Terence Steele at left tackle. Neither one stood out in a major way, so it’ll be interesting to monitor that spot if Tyron Smith continues to be held out of games.
Defense
Cowboys Defensive Efficiency
| Grade | Rank |
---|---|---|
| Grade | Rank |
Defensive DVOA | -15.2% | 2nd |
Pass Defense DVOA | -20.5% | 2nd |
Run Defense DVOA | -7.1% | 16th |
Pass Rush Win Rate | 42% | 12th |
Run Stop Win Rate | 31% | 14th |
Here’s another number: zero. That represents the amount of time the Dallas defense has spent playing from behind during their three-game win streak. Coincidentally, the Cowboys’ last three opponents have all failed to top 25 designed run plays in their games.
That helps when your run defense ranks middle of the pack the way Dallas’ unit does, and it embodies Mike McCarthy’s desire to play complementary football. They know their secondary is playing lights out right now, so getting an early lead forces teams to go away from attacking the defense’s weakness (the run) and try to throw their way out of the hole. And when you’ve got the pass rushers and ball-hawks that Dallas does, that leads to an avalanche of defensive splash plays.
Cowboys Pass Coverage
| Targets | Completions | Completion Rate | Passer Rating Allowed | ADOT When Targeted | Air Yards Allowed | Yards After Catch |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targets | Completions | Completion Rate | Passer Rating Allowed | ADOT When Targeted | Air Yards Allowed | Yards After Catch |
Trevon Diggs | 103 | 54 | 52.4% | 55.8 | 10.4 | 496 | 411 |
Anthony Brown | 122 | 65 | 53.3% | 78.4 | 12.2 | 518 | 318 |
Jourdan Lewis | 76 | 52 | 68.4% | 93.4 | 8.5 | 381 | 305 |
Kelvin Joseph | 17 | 8 | 47.1% | 82.7 | 6.8 | 14 | 75 |
Jayron Kearse | 65 | 40 | 61.5% | 77.5 | 6.8 | 179 | 237 |
Damontae Kazee | 25 | 13 | 52.0% | 85.8 | 14.2 | 135 | 70 |
Malik Hooker | 28 | 16 | 57.1% | 80.8 | 9.6 | 59 | 90 |
Donovan Wilson | 14 | 6 | 42.9% | 57.1 | 8.1 | 39 | 26 |
Keanu Neal | 38 | 30 | 78.9% | 97.1 | 3.8 | 109 | 169 |
Leighton Vander Esch | 38 | 27 | 71.1% | 87.9 | 1.8 | 37 | 226 |
Micah Parsons | 36 | 22 | 61.1% | 71.5 | 3.1 | 37 | 123 |
Speaking of the secondary, they’re great. Dallas ranks first in pass defense DVOA and first in defensive EPA per dropback. Literally no one would have believed you if you had said this would happen eight months ago, but here we are. There’s so many players who deserve credit here, but let’s focus on the cornerbacks.
Trevon Diggs and Anthony Brown are both playing at very high levels right now. No player in the NFL has been targeted more than Brown, while Diggs has been targeted the sixth-most times of any defender. The fact that both corners are allowing completions on less than 55% of those targets is ridiculous.
Jourdan Lewis deserves some credit too. He’s been playing the best football of his career - though it’d be easy to argue that has more to do with opportunity than skill - and has been an integral part of this pass defense from the slot. Opposing quarterbacks don’t want to target Diggs and Brown, but Dan Quinn has done a good job of using Lewis and his deep rotation of safeties to crowd the middle and force quarterbacks to test the two outside guys in man coverage. If Lewis didn’t do his job so well, Diggs and Brown wouldn’t be seeing so many targets. This elite pass defense truly is the result of everyone doing their part.
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