What trade history and draft charts say about the Cowboys trading the #10 pick in the 2021 draft

The history of trades involving the 10th pick in the NFL Draft has been a shaky one when you look at the teams and players that have been taken after the trades have been made. The Cowboys are in the same position as these teams in the past, so do you sit on the pick and take a player that can come in and immediately help the franchise. or trade the pick and take a risk but secure more picks to cover more holes on the team? That’s a tough choice and you know that Jerry and Stephen Jones are both taking a hard look and using history to help make their decision.

Let’s do the same and see what the Cowboys could be in for if they do decide to trade the pick. To figure out the possible compensation they could receive we will be using the Rich Hill trade value chart via Drafttek.com which has been pretty accurate in looking at what teams have done in the past. So let’s start with the compensation that could be had.

Here is the Cowboys draft capital as it stands today.

Cowboys Current Draft Capital - 611 Points

Round 1: 369 Points Round 2: 135 Points

Round 3: 63 Points Round 3: Projected Comp Pick

Round 4: 32 Points Round 4: Projected Comp Pick

Round 5: Projected Comp Pick Round 6: Projected Comp Pick

Round 7: 4 Points

The main reason the Cowboys would look to trade back in this draft will undoubtedly be from teams looking to jump up and grab one of the top-tier quarterbacks. As it stands now the Bears, Colts, Falcons, Jets, Jaguars, Panthers, Patriots, and Washington could all entertain drafting a quarterback. Looking at the draft order you can rule the Jaguars, Jets, Falcons, and Panthers out since they are drafting ahead of the Cowboys leaving only the Patriots (15th), Bears (20th pick), Colts (21st pick), and Washington (19th pick) as the main teams who could look to move up if a quarterback falls.

Since New England is loathe to give up draft capital, let’s look at what the Bears, Colts, and Washington would need to offer to make it worth the Cowboys while. This is just a possible starting point since they are all drafting so closely they may need to up their compensations to get the 10th pick over these other teams.

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Washington Football Team Possible Trade Proposal

Trade the 19th (Rd1), 74th (Rd2), and 114th (Rd4) pick to the Cowboys for the 10th pick.

#19, #74, #114 = 368 Points

Cowboys 10th = 369

Chicago Bears Possible Trade Proposal

Trade 20th (Rd1) pick and the 52nd (Rd2) pick to the Cowboys for the 10th pick.

#20, #52 = 378 Points

Cowboys 10th = 369

Indianapolis Colts Possible Trade Proposal

Trade 21st (Rd1) pick and 54th (Rd2) pick to the Cowboys for the 10th pick.

#21, #54 = 365 Points

Cowboys 10th = 369

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If there is competition for the move up to the Cowboys’ spot, they may have to up their offers with a future pick in next year’s draft to secure the trade for the rights to the 10th pick, but you can see what the Cowboys would be looking at based on the draft trade chart. Pretty good options, but now they have to weigh that with what they would be able to get trading that far down in the draft. Looking at the history of team’s success, it’s pretty iffy that they would find as talented of a player as they would with the 10th pick. But don’t take my word for it, here are some of the past draft trades involving the 10th pick.

In 2019 the Denver Broncos traded with the Pittsburgh Steelers

The Broncos received the Steelers 20th and 52nd pick in the 2019 draft and a third round pick in the 2020 draft. The Steelers took linebacker Devin Bush with the 10th pick in the draft, which looks like a great pick so far, while the Broncos took tight end Noah Fant with the 20th pick and traded the 52nd in a package to get quarterback Drew Lock. They then used the 2020 pick from the Steelers to get center Lloyd Cushenberry.

So far it looks like the Steelers are getting the most out of this trade compared to the Broncos. Bush was an immediate starter and impact player while Lock, Fant, and Cushenberry are still proving their worth for the Broncos, but the future looks pretty good for the Broncos on this trade.

In 2018 the Oakland Raiders traded with the Arizona Cardinals

The Raiders received the Cardinals 15th, 79th, and 172nd pick to move up to get quarterback Josh Rosen with the 10th pick. The Raiders used all three picks in order to select offensive tackle Kolton Miller with the 15th pick, traded the 79th pick for receiver Martavis Bryant, and traded the 152nd pick to select offensive tackle Brandon Parker. This was a poor showing on both teams part.

In 2017 the Buffalo Bills traded with the Kansas City Chiefs

Of all the trades involving the 10th pick in the draft, this may be the best of them all. The Bills received the Chiefs 27th, 91st picks in 2017 and their first-round pick in 2018. The Chiefs took Patrick Mahomes with the 10th pick while the Bills were able to get cornerback Tre’Davious White with the 27th pick, traded the 91st pick to move up and get receiver Zay Jones and then used the 2018 first-round pick to select linebacker Tremaine Edmunds. Now the Bills eventually traded Jones away for a fifth-round pick, but it’s still a win-win for both teams, well, except for Mahomes being a superstar that the Bills could have drafted.

There were also trades in 2011, 2009, 2008, 2007, 2001, 1997, and 1995, but if you were to take a look at all of those, only four players made it worth it to make the trade. Running back/kick returner Eric Metcalf, defensive tackle Sedrick Ellis, linebacker Jerod Mayo , and defensive end Ryan Kerrigan. Overall, history shows that the the reward for teams that have dropped in the draft hasn’t always worked out.

Now it’s the Cowboys turn and you never know what Jerry Jones will do when the right trade proposal is given to him.