FanPost

Let's Get Real About Drafting OL in 2021

Many here on BtB are concerned about the Cowboys OT situation, and justifiably so. Smith and Collins are both coming off season ending injuries. Smith has been dinged up in each of the last 5 seasons and he's not getting any younger. As for Collins, there have been questions regarding his desire to play -€” perhaps unwarranted, but they are out there and do provide a cause for concern for some. There is also concern about the interior of the OL. Center was not a position of strength last year and questions linger over Biadasz. Williams is constantly under question about his quality of play and many would like to see him replaced.

The result is a call to find one or more of these things in the upcoming draft: 1) Immediate replacement at RT or LT, 2) Future OT replacement that can play IOL immediately until needed to move to OT, or 3) Developmental OT that can be an immediate back-up . Are any of these wishes realistic?

This is our OL situation going into 2021:

  • OT: Two PB level players when healthy. One or both likely to miss some time. 3 back-ups that are just barely OK.
  • OG: 1 perennial AP future HOF that is rarely hurt. 1 player finally entering solid starting level quality play. A 3rd year back-up that's already shown potential.
  • OC: 1 2nd year player that did not play to starter quality in 2020 in his rookie year as a 4th round pick. (Don't forget Looney is a FA that we have not re-signed)

Those 3 back-up OT's definitely do not instill confidence that the back-up jobs are in good hands.

Ty Nsekhe is a career back-up. He's OK, but if he was anything close to starter quality, he would have earned a starting job at some point with some team over his 9-year career. He has a career AV of 9 according to Pro Football Reference. In 2019, the last season he played significant time, he earned a PFF grade of 67.3, an AV of 1 and committed 6 penalties on only 359 snaps.

Terrence Steele was a rookie UDFA in 2020. He was never expected to play, much less start 14 games. In those 14 games, he was better than what you might expect from a rookie UDFA. He earned an AV of 7, a PFF grade of 50.3 and committed only 4 penalties.

Brandon Knight was a 2nd year UDFA in 2020. He had started 1 game in 2019. In 2020 he started 9 games. He likely would have started more, but spent 3 weeks on IR mid-season. He earned an AV of 5 and a PFF grade of 48.5 while committing zero accepted penalties.

Tyron Smith, earned an AV of 10, a PFF grade 76.6 and committed 7 penalties in 13 starts in 2019. Pretty similar to the OT's selected to the PB for 2020, as we might expect.

La'el Collins earned an AV of 9, a PFF grade of 86.4 and committed 3 penalties in 15 starts in 2019, also comparable to the PB OT's for 2020.

Clearly, there is a massive fall off from Smith/Collins to any of the 3 back-up OT's on the roster.

Guard and Center:

Connor Williams in 2020 earned a PFF grade of 70.8 (starter level), an AV of 8 and committed 5 penalties. His PFF grade in 2018 was 60 and in 2019 it was 60.9 (back-up level). Keep in mind, this is a player that played exclusively at LT in college and was moving to OG at the NFL level, starting as a rookie. PFF had a 1st round grade on him and as the 3rd OT prior to the 2018 draft.

Connor McGovern started 8 games at guard in 2020, earning at 61.7 PFF grade with an AV of 5 and 1 penalty. Not too bad for a 3rd round pick that missed the entire 2019 season with an injury -€” meaning he was basically a rookie in 2020. Improvement should be expected in 2021.

Joe Looney started 12 games at Center in 2020, finishing with a PFF grade of 50.7, an AV of 6 and 1 penalty.

Biadasz started the other 4 games, earning a 53.5 PFF grade, an AV of 3 and 2 penalties.

Guard seems to be in good hands, while center is definitely a concern.

Getting to the draft wishes....

Draft the immediate replacement OT:

If we are talking about immediate replacement, what we would be looking for are players that can step in at either OT position and at least come close to Smith and Collins most recent grades right away. That means any of them would have to far exceed what Smith and Collins themselves did in their first 3 seasons.

Tyron played RT his rookie year, earning an 80.2 PFF grade. The next year, his first at LT he dropped to a 71.2. It was 2013 when he became a true AP/PB level player -€” his 3rd year.

Collins played LG his first year, earning a PFF grade of 68.4. His 2016 season was cut short by injury. In 2017, his first year at RT, he earned a PFF of 63.3, followed by 72.5 in 2018 and 86.4 in 2019. It took Collins into his 4th year to become a good starting level RT, although it could be argued that starting at LG and missing a season slowed his progress.

These are the "top" OT's across many of the draft prospect boards.

NFL MD Rank = NFL Mock Database consensus big board rankings. This board is a compilation of 30 different big boards, 395 1st round mock drafts and 646 team based mock drafts. It's basically an average.

PFF Rank = Pro Football Focus pre-draft rank.

Since PFF grades simply cannot translate directly from NCAA to NFL, have a look at what the past three years of the top drafted OT's have done in the NFL. All players, other than Connor Williams, were drafted in the first round.

Bolded PFF grade indicates rookie year in the NFL.

All but two players had significant drop offs in their PFF grade from the final year in NCAA to the first year in the NFL. And all but three earned grades well below starter level quality.

Of the players drafted in 2019, one achieved a starter level grade in his second year, the rest remain at back-up level. Of the players drafted in 2018, all have reached starter level quality by 2020.

Using history as the judge, let's assume that about a 20 point drop in PFF grade from final year in NCAA to first year in the NFL is more or less expected for a first round OT. This would leave only Darrisaw coming close to Tyron's 2019 grade, but still over 10 points short of Collins' 2019 grade. Christensen would fall into the category as well, if you think his 38 games at lower level FBS translate to the NFL. In any case, both played almost exclusively at LT.

As for Sewell and Slater -€” the top two ranked OT prospects, neither played in 2020. Despite the enormous upside of both and even the generational talent expected of Sewell, asking them to step in at either OT spot and play at starter level quality after not playing football for over 18 months is a monumental request. Tyron Smith barely did that without missing 18 months and he's a future HOF. Collins may not be an AP or future HOF player, but he is highly regarded across the league and he wasn't able to do it.

Jenkins and Cosmi may have lower ceilings than the top 3 players in the list, but probably stand a better chance of stepping in at either OT spot and immediately playing at low end starter quality. But, we can't expect either to step in immediately and be better than Smith or Collins.

Conclusion: An immediate replacement just is not likely, even if it's Sewell and he's available at 10.

Draft a future replacement OT that can play IOL immediately:

Going back to the top OT's drafted since 2018, 4 were asked to play a position in their rookie year that they did not play in college.

Jedrick Wills -€” RT in College, LT in NFL. 1st year grade = back-up level

Andre Dillard -€” RT in College, LT in NFL. 1st year grade = replaceable, 2nd year didn't play

Mike McGlinchey -€” OT in College, RG first year in NFL. 1st year grade = starter quality

Connor Williams -€” LT in College, LG in NFL. 1st year grade = low end back-up.

This is a small sample size, and probably for good reason. Teams don't generally spend a 1st round pick on an OT and then ask him to play another position, especially if he hasn't played it in college, outside maybe a move from LT in college to RT in the NFL. The one recent player to do it at starter level quality is McGlinchey and he still had a 17-point drop from his final PFF grade in NCAA to his first year in the NFL.

Applying the 17-point drop of McGlinchey, there are a few players that might be able to step in and match Williams' 2020 PFF grade, but it's not likely. Even should they be successful, at what cost? We have both Smith and Collins as reference points as far as playing one position in the first year and then trying to change in a subsequent year -€” there is a drop in grade after the change. McGlinchey also dropped below a starting quality grade after his position change from RG to RT in his 2nd year.

Wait, what about Zack Martin? There is no PFF grade available for his final year in college in 2013. He was a LT at Notre Dame and came into start at RG immediately his rookie season, earning a PFF grade of 86.4. However, he was never asked to change positions back to OT after that, so we don't know what would have happened. Martin also has a gold jacket and bust already waiting for him in Canton.

The only relatively recent example other than McGlinchey of an OG to OT move is Andrew Whitworth. He played LT in his rookie year in 2006, then LG in 2007 and 2008 before moving back to LT in 2009. His PFF grades over those 4 seasons? 70.8, 88.8, 69.3, 81.9. Not terribly consistent.

Vera-Tucker and Leatherwood are the only OT's near the top of the OT class with experience at OG. Their final NCAA PFF grades suggest they may have similar success as Williams in his first year. Leatherwood is either a project at OT or simply not an OT. Vera-Tucker's profile reads a lot like Martin's -€” could be a good tackle, but probably better at guard. Neither should be considered a lock as a future replacement for Smith or Collins.

Conclusion: though possible, it's no slam dunk that a rookie OT steps in at LG and immediately surpasses Williams. And, the attempt to do so may stunt the development at OT.

What about Center?

These are the centers that earned higher PFF grades than Biadasz and Looney in 2020.

If there has ever been a successful OT start out at OC in his rookie year and then later move to OT, I haven't found it. In the 2020 group of starting OC's across the league, I did find two players that were OT's in college and drafted as OT's, but now playing OC.

  • JC Tretter -€” began in NFL as OC. Became starter in 3rd year
  • Ryan Jensen -€” began in NFL as OG. Became starting center in 4th year.

There are 3 examples of players that were exclusively OT's in college that came into the NFL as guards and soon moved to center.

  • Cody Whitehair -€” OT in NCAA. Drafted as OG. Started at OC 1st year
  • Mitch Morse -€” OT in NCAA. Drafted as OG. Started at OC, 1st year
  • Nick Gates -€” OT in NCAA. UDFA as "OL". Became starting OC in 2nd year

Every single starting OC from the 2020 regular season that came into the league as a center had experience at that position in college. Of the players that came in as guards and are now playing center, other than the 3 mentioned above, all had experience in college as a guard.

So, out of the top 32 PFF grade earners at center in 2020, only 5 were OT's in college. Two of them started at center in their 1st year and have remained there.

Conclusion: An OT stepping in at OC and later moving to OT has not been done before. It may be possible, but it's not worth the risk with a high draft pick.

Draft a developmental OT that can back-up Smith and Collins now:

For this need, we are looking at 3rd round (probably the comp pick) or later for a guy that could step in at either OT position and earn a PFF grade of 60 or better.

Going back to the list of OT prospects, Jackson Carman is probably the cut-off. Those above him are probably not on the board at pick 75, much less pick 99. Carman appears to fit our needs using the previously assumed 20-point drop from NCAA to NFL in PFF grade. Christensen may fit as well. Hainsey's 2020 PFF grade is a match, but he played exclusively at RT at Notre Dame and he's being projected as a guard or center -€” inserting him at LT could be a big mistake.

Conclusion: Counting on a mid to late round developmental OT as a back-up LT or RT could work. Assuming at least two of Nsekhe, Steele, and Knight remain with the team as insurance, it could be worth the pick.

Back to Center:

There are a handful of G/C prospects with later round ranks that are possible upgrades. Using the 20 point drop off assumption from NCAA to NFL, any of these guys could grade out better than Biadasz or Looney did in 2020. Some of them may be available as UDFA's as well.

Ben Cleveland, G Georgia. PFF Rank: 95. 2020 PFF Grade: 78.8

Aaron Banks, G Notre Dame. PFF Rank: 148. PFF Grade: 81.3

Sadarius Hutcherson, G South Carolina. PFF Rank: 180, PFF Grade: 74.9

Drake Jackson, C Kentucky. PFF Rank: 192, PFF Grade: 86.4

Tristen Hoge, G BYU. PFF Rank: 245, PFF Grade: 82.0

Tommy Kramer, G Notre Dame. PFF Rank: 270, PFF Grade 76.5

Drew Dalman, C Stanford. PFF Rank: 281, PFF Grade: 86.9

If Dallas happens to trade back and land an extra 2nd round pick, these players could be targets in the late 2nd to early 3rd to immediately upgrade the center position.

Landon Dickerson, OC Alabama. PFF Rank 45. PFF Grade 91.3. One big issue: he tore his ACL in the SEC championship game, so it may be mid-season before he's ready to play.

Kendrick Green, G/C Illinois. PFF Rank 68. PFF Grade 88

Creed Humphrey, OC Oklahoma. PFF Rank 70. PFF Grade 80.9

Quick summary:

  • A 1st or 2nd Round OT that immediately replaces Smith or Collins = doubtful.
  • A 1st or 2nd Round OT that immediately replaces Williams at OG = maybe, but with other risks
  • A 1st or 2nd Round OT that immediately replaces Looney/Biadasz at OC = Possible. Never done before and comes with other risks.
  • A mid-round project OT that provides immediate upgrade over our current back-ups = Possible if the right guy falls into place, but not likely.
  • Center is a definite concern and later round OC's and OG's from college can step in immediately and have reasonable success.

OVERALL CONCLUSION:

  • Center is the true need on the OL that can and should be addressed.
  • Spending a 1st or 2nd round pick on an OT will be for a back-up in 2021
  • A developmental OT is a good idea. If the right guy is there at the right time, get him.

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.