Best bets, player props Week 4: Washington Commanders vs. Dallas Cowboys

It’s week four of the NFL season, which means it’s time for player props and bets for Sunday’s game between the Commanders and Cowboys.

Last week’s movie-like 4-0 sweep was something otherworldly. Some of the picks felt a bit too easy, but that strategy seemed to work well, so we’ll stick with it here. The 4-0 Monday night outing brings us to 7-4 on the season.

Last week’s bets

Tony Pollard over 37.5 rushing yards- WIN

Daniel Jones under 197.5 passing yards- WIN

CeeDee Lamb over 4.5 receptions- WIN

Noah Brown over 3.5 receptions- WIN

This week's bets

Antonio Gibson U 53.5 rushing yards

Washington’s run game has been nonexistent the past two weeks. Combining those games, Gibson has run the ball 26 times for 66 yards. The Cowboys’ rush defense has improved since a horrid week one outing. They have been able to hold Joe Mixon and Saquon Barkley to a limited role in the offense and that trend should not change come Sunday afternoon.

Noah Brown O 46.5 receiving yards

Brown has been one of the pleasant surprises on the Cowboys this season and his production has mirrored that. Winning on over 3.5 receptions last week felt disrespectful, as does this 46.5 receiving yards figure. He’s proved to be an integral part in the offense week in and week out, being targeted 21 times through the first three games. His lowest yard mark on the season is 54, so 46.5 seems a bit low here and we’ll take it.

Curtis Samuel O 5 receptions

Samuel has been targeted 30 times through the first three games, catching at least seven balls in each game. Washington should put an emphasis on getting the ball out quick and working behind the line of scrimmage, which bodes well for this prop and Samuel’s production as a whole.

Micah Parsons O 0.5 sacks

Parsons was obviously battling something last week, causing him to own the questionable tag heading into last Monday’s game. However, he should bounce back in terms of sacks here against a poor pass-blocking Washington team and an awareness-lacking quarterback. He only needs half a sack to push and a full to win, which the chances of that seem high after not notching one last week. The only worrisome thing about this pick is how he was lining up off the ball more than usual last week. He should rush Wentz more in what should be a blitz heavy game and he should drop him at least once.