Time for a rebound. The Dallas Cowboys are on the road this week at Minnesota after a crushing defeat to the Green Bay Packers. Dallas hopes to re-start their winning ways by taking on a Vikings team they have defeated the past two times on the road. Even with the Vikings at 8-1 and at home, they are underdogs to the Cowboys by 1.5 points according to DraftKings Sportsbook.
So can the Cowboys get the win and the cover at Minnesota? We check in with some of the experts around the internet for advice.
Have the Cowboys taken a step back on defense since Dak Prescott returned from injury or are they just facing better opponents? Much like the NFC East rival Eagles, they are susceptible against the run. That’s bad news with Dalvin Cook coming up, buoyed by a Vikings tackle combination that could mitigate the Cowboys’ pass rush. I still see Dallas as a more complete team with more playmakers overall, even if Minnesota’s late-game magic could power the sun.
Given that the Cowboys are only 1.5 point favorites, almost any win would cover, and this four-point win prediction certainly qualifies.
The Vikings are home after a miraculous victory over the Bills last week when they rallied from 17 down late. The Cowboys are on the road for a second straight week after blowing a 14-point fourth-quarter lead in losing to the Packers. The Cowboys had major coverage issues last week, which Justin Jefferson will exploit. Look for the Vikings to keep it going.
Pick: Vikings 30, Cowboys 26
With the Vikings at 8-1 and playing with high confidence, predictions of them winning are certainly no surprise.
Schatz: I feel like I’m beating a dead horse — a dead horse that keeps coming to life and biting me back — but the Vikings just aren’t very good. They’re really living on the edge with seven straight one-possession wins. It’s rare to have an 8-1 team with a negative yards per play differential, and the Vikings are the first 8-1 team in the 42-year history of Football Outsiders metrics to have a negative DVOA. The Cowboys fell with their loss to Green Bay, but still rank fourth in DVOA. The Vikings are 17th. Dallas is better than Minnesota in all three phases this season. Give me the Cowboys for a cover.
When digging deep into the stats, you can see why the Cowboys could be favored in this one. The Vikings somehow keep winning even when it seems they shouldn’t. People are waiting for the collapse.
The overall record favors the Vikings. Everything else favors the Cowboys.
The Cowboys are coming off a loss to the Green Bay Packers and there has been a lot of conversation over the fourth-down decision by Mike McCarthy that didn’t work out. It’s not ideal to blow a 14-point fourth-quarter lead but had the Cowboys executed better on fourth-and-3 in overtime, they probably win the game. Dallas has been excellent since a bad Week 1 loss.
Now the test is if they can go on the road and beat an 8-1 Vikings team. I’ll trust all the underlying stats and take the Cowboys as a 1.5-point favorite. It won’t be an upset if they beat the Vikings.
Another cover for the Cowboys. It’s an interesting game where all the stats, especially the advanced ones, favor the Cowboys yet they have lost three times while the Vikings have only lost once. In general, though, it seems like people feel the Cowboys are the better team and should win this week.
Some of the BTB staff have been picking games through Tallysight. Here are the picks for the rest of Week 11.