The Cowboys didn’t play up to expectations against the Texans and very nearly lost to a team they were favored to beat by three scores. Dallas may have pulled out the win at, quite literally, the last minute, and the win counts just as much as all the others, but their efficiency has taken a hit as a result.

As we look at this week’s roundup of analytics, keep in mind that all DVOA grades are accounting for quality of opponent. That’s why the Cowboys have dropped several spots in nearly every category; squeaking out a win over the lowly Texans is going to ding you in efficiency results. Let’s take a look at the damage.

The defense remains at the top of the leaderboard, but that’s more a testament to how good they were coming into Sunday’s game. Offense and special teams both dropped multiple spots in the rankings, and the team’s overall efficiency now sits at fourth. They’re also fourth in weighted DVOA, where they led the NFL a week ago. Almost losing to the Texans will do that.

Another thing to point out is that Dallas’ special teams have been steadily declining in DVOA each week for a while now. Whether it’s been penalties, poor punt coverages, a rare miss from Brett Maher, or KaVontae Turpin’s muffed punt this week, John Fassel’s unit has been uncharacteristically sloppy in recent weeks. They’re now seventh in special teams DVOA after having peaked at second earlier in the year.

It’s easy to miss the Cowboys’ placement in the EPA-based team tiers, as they’re pretty squarely overlapped by the 49ers. Depending on how you feel about San Francisco, that may or may not be a good thing. Still, Dallas remains inside the top five in total EPA/play and, despite the rough day against Houston, are in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive EPA/play. That’s not bad, but more performances like this past week will change that real quick.

Offense

The offense started and ended the Texans game on fire; they practically walked down the field for a touchdown on the opening drive and then took command on the game-winning drive. That said, everything in between was a bit of a nightmare. Dallas dropped four spots in their DVOA rankings, a disappointing setback for a unit that was making legitimate progress.

A big part of the problem for this offense has been the frequency of turnovers, which are efficiency killers. Our Twitter friend, Cowboys Stats & Graphics, penned this informative thread that highlighted just how much of the Cowboys’ negative offensive production has come from turnovers.

In other words, ball security has been the one consistent problem for this offense. Dallas has won four in a row in spite of this, but they’d be winning by even larger margins if not for the turnovers. That’s a bit of a given to some, but it does offer some optimism: the offense isn’t necessarily failing to execute their plan, they’re just a little sloppy.

Speaking of turnovers, Dak Prescott has been uncharacteristically loose with the ball. Entering this season, Prescott was throwing an interception on 1.7% of his passes. In 2022 alone, he’s doing so at a 3.6% rate, easily a career high for him. Granted, some of those interceptions have come on plays where receivers ran the wrong route or the ball got tipped up in the air, but that still affects Prescott’s efficiency metrics.

But Prescott was also nails on that game-winning drive, dropping dime after dime to lead the Cowboys to the win. It marked his 18th career game-winning drive, which is the fourth-most since Prescott entered the league, ahead of both Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. It’s no surprise, then, to see Prescott’s efficiency metrics represent a mixed bag of sorts. We know Prescott can be better, but he’s also still playing at a fairly high level.

The big story on this offensive line right now is Terence Steele, who’s been lost for the year after suffering a torn ACL against Houston. Steele was having a phenomenal year and was arguably the best run blocker on a line that’s top 10 across the board in run blocking. That said, he was also second on the team in pressures allowed, and pass protection has been this unit’s weakness all year.

Elsewhere, Tyler Smith is about to be moved inside to left guard with Tyron Smith returning. Like Steele, rookie Smith has been great in run blocking but has had his struggles in pass protection. Moving him inside and inserting a future Hall of Famer next to him is sure to yield positive results from the left side of this line, even as the right side goes through some uncertainty now.

Defense

The Dallas defense didn’t have its best game against Houston, but similar to their performance against Philadelphia earlier this year, several of their drives began with the Texans already in scoring position. That’s why their efficiency grades haven’t dropped too much.

In fact, their run defense has improved to sixth in run defense DVOA. Only one team, the 49ers, are top five in both pass and run defense DVOA at the moment but Dallas is knocking on the door after this week. How their run defense fares with Johnathan Hankins seemingly out until the playoffs remains to be seen, but the Cowboys are looking good in that area right now.

This game marked Kelvin Joseph’s first start since Anthony Brown was lost for the year, and Joseph played a very similar game to the guy he replaced. No Dallas defender was targeted more than Joseph in this game, and he got beat bad on a 36-yard bomb that likely should’ve been overturned as incomplete. Aside from that, though, Joseph played a strong game in coverage, giving up just seven yards after the catch on four completions.

It also didn’t help that Joseph’s first start coincided with the pass rush having one of their worst games of the year. The same goes for DaRon Bland, who allowed completions for a first down on both of his targets. Both young corners showed enough to feel hopeful going forward, especially if the pass rush gets back on track, but they still merit a close watch.