Quick Look at the Best Super Bowl Odds

I was playing around with 538's NFL prediction machine, and there's a cool feature that allows you to see how a teams ELO, and odds to make the playoffs, win their division, a first-round bye, win the conference and win the Super Bowl change depending on what happens in their remaining games. Obviously, it's just a simulation of what could happen, and it isn't anything to take serious, but I noticed a couple of interesting things.

The Four Clear SB Favorites as of Week 14

  • Eagles at 20%
  • Bills at 18%
  • Chiefs at 17%
  • Cowboys at 16%

Next closest to Dallas is Minnesota at 7%. What's interesting to me with these current odds is that Dallas has the 4th best chance to win the Super Bowl despite being the only team of those 4 who would have to play every postseason game on the road. Now, once you play around with the prediction model, the odds do change drastically with certain outcomes.

Buffalo and Philadelphia as the #1 Seeds:
  • Bills at 26%
  • Eagles at 19%
  • Cowboys at 15%
  • Chiefs at 12%
Kansas City and Philadelphia as the #1 Seeds:
  • Chiefs at 28%
  • Eagles at 18%
  • Bills at 16%
  • Cowboys at 14%
Buffalo and Dallas as the #1 Seeds:
  • Cowboys at 40%
  • Bills at 24%
  • Chiefs at 11%
  • Bengals at 8%
  • Vikings at 4%
  • Eagles at 3%
Kansas City and Dallas as the #1 Seeds:
  • Cowboys at 37%
  • Chiefs at 25%
  • Bills at 14%
  • Bengals at 6%
  • Eagles at 5%

To surprise absolutely no one, the 538 model really values that #1 seed having the first round bye. It's interesting to see how much things change with slightly different outcomes.

I included more teams with the simulations showing the Cowboys at the 1 seed just to illustrate how far the Eagles SB chances drop if they're the 5th seed instead of the 1st. The model clearly does not like the Eagles' chances if they have to go on the road. Obviously these don't mean anything, it's just for fun, but it's wild to see how much this model really likes Dallas.

The highest I could get any team's SB chances was Dallas at 42%. Even if the Eagles go 16-1 their SB chances in this model top out at 33%. I think our chances of actually overtaking the Eagles are slim simply because I don't think the Cowboys will win out, but you never know.

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