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Using betting lines to understand what happens over the next 10 months

What does Vegas expect will happen with the 2022 Dallas Cowboys?

Syndication: The Courier-Journal Marty Pearl/Special to The Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

There are thousands of media personalities, analysts, and sportswriters that try to do what the oddsmakers do better than anyone else, make predictions. If you want to know who is going to win any given game, your best source of information is the betting line.

So, while we spend the offseason attempting to predict what will happen over the next year, there are predictions already available. Thus, instead of trying to beat Vegas, why not let the lines give us an outlook into the 2022 draft and season?

Here is what will happen over the next 10 months, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

Using betting lines to understand what happens over the next ten months

NFL: Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

We begin our story roughly three weeks from now, at the 2022 NFL draft. Granted, Vegas’ crystal ball is most unclear when it comes to the draft due to the interrelation of every pick. But here is what we know.

Players like Derek Stingley Jr., Jordan Davis, Garrett Wilson, and Drake London will be off the board by 24 barring some unforeseen plummet during the draft. But this isn't breaking news, so here are some interesting insights that pertain to the Cowboys:

  • There is a better chance that Tyler Linderbaum makes it to 24th than Trevor Penning
  • Both Zion Johnson and Kenyon Green are four times more likely than Tyler Linderbaum to make it to 24th
  • There is a better chance Treylon Burks makes it to 24th than Jameson Williams
  • Chris Olave is roughly 1.5 times more likely to make it to Dallas than Treylon Burks
  • Skyy Moore is significantly less likely to be on the board for the Cowboys in the second round than George Pickens

Other than that, the story of the NFL draft is murky. But let’s assume that the draft comes with no surprises. Every team makes the right decisions, no team is significantly better or worse, and the status quo as it stands now is maintained.

We head into the 2022 NFL season. The opening kick is sailed out of the endzone on September 8th and away we go.

And as you have likely seen already, the expectations for the upcoming season is not as encouraging as 2021 but the Cowboys play admirably nonetheless. Finishing somewhere around the 10.5-win mark, their odds to win the division currently stand at 53.5%. Their odds to make the playoffs are a little higher at 71%.

So, after eighteen weeks the Cowboys win around 10.5 games and make the playoffs. While this is partially a result of another weak schedule, here is how the playoff standings fall in the NFC, based on projected win totals:

  1. Buccaneers (11.5 wins)
  2. Packers (11 wins)
  3. Rams (10.5 wins)
  4. Cowboys (10.5 wins)
  5. 49ers (10 wins)
  6. Cardinals (9 wins)
  7. Vikings (9 wins)

A few other storylines from the projected 2022 NFL season:

  • Tom Brady and Justin Herbert are equally likely to lead the NFL in passing yards. At a 7.7% chance, Prescott has the eighth highest odds. He falls in between Derek Carr and Aaron Rodgers.
  • Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards, with Derek Henry falling closely behind. At a 4.3% chance to lead the league, Ezekiel Elliott falls 12th in between Damien Harris and J.K. Dobbins.
  • Cooper Kupp leads the NFL in receiving yards with Justin Jefferson in second and surprisingly Travis Kelce in third. At a 5.3% chance to lead the league, CeeDee Lamb comes in ninth between Deebo Samuel and Mike Evans.

But now we are in playoff football and Dallas, unfortunately, has to match up against the 49ers in the first round again. Currently, with an 11.8% chance to make it out of the NFC, the Cowboys have the fifth-highest odds behind the three projected division winners and San Francisco.

With a 5.5% chance to win the Super Bowl, anything can happen. And if they were to hoist the Lombardi, it would most likely be a Super Bowl 27 rematch against the Buffalo Bills. But the odds are stacked against the Cowboys, and instead, the Bills beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 57. At least, that is currently the most likely way this season ends according to the odds.

However, as Dallas fans have become accustomed to, there is still award season if they miss the Super Bowl. So, how likely is Dallas to win an award?

  • MVP: 5.8% chance for Dak Prescott (Josh Allen is the highest)
  • Coach of the Year: 3.4% chance for Mike McCarthy (Brandon Staley is the highest)
  • DPOY: 9.1% chance for Micah Parsons (Myles Garrett is the highest)

And this concludes the 2022 NFL season.

Now, obviously, we have not even reached the draft yet and there is still a lot that can happen over the next five months before the season begins. But even with these preliminary odds, it is interesting to know where the Cowboys stand.

As fun as it is to predict, this clearly should not be taken as gospel. The Bengals had a .5% chance to win the Super Bowl last year before the season began. However, Vegas knows more than practically anyone in the business of prediction. So, why not use their advice from time to time?