clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

Why the Cowboys offense should average over 30 points per game in 2022

There are not that many teams in the NFL that can keep pace with an offense that consistently puts up 30+ points.

Dallas Cowboys v Philadelphia Eagles Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Last season, the Cowboys eclipsed 30 points per game in a regular season for the first time since 1968, averaging 31.2 points over 17 games. In 2021, the Cowboys scored 30+ points in eight games for the third season in a row. Only twice in franchise history have the Cowboys scored 30+ points in more games. Once in 2014 (10 games), and once in 1983 (nine games). And 2007 was the only other season in which they had eight 30+ point games.

The Cowboys’ record over the last three years in games where they scored 30+ points: 21-3. If you’re looking for a shortcut to the playoffs, scoring 30+ points per game would be a convenient way.

Why fixate on those 30 points? Because since realignment in 2002, 29 teams have averaged more than 30 points per game (480 points per season until 2020, 520 points since 2021), and all but one of those teams made the playoffs.

Year Team Points Scored W/L Record
2021 Dallas 530 12-5
2021 Tampa Bay 511 13-4
2020 Green Bay 509 13-3
2020 Buffalo 501 13-3
2020 Tampa Bay 492 11-5
2020 Tennessee 491 11-5
2020 New Olreans 482 12-4
2019 Baltimore 531 14-2
2018 Kansas City 565 12-4
2018 LA Rams 527 13-3
2018 New Orleans 505 13-3
2016 Atlanta 540 11-5
2015 Carolina 500 15-1
2015 Arizona 489 13-3
2014 Green Bay 486 12-4
2014 Denver 482 12-4
2013 Denver 606 13-3
2012 New England 557 12-4
2012 Denver 481 13-3
2011 Green Bay 560 15-1
2011 New Orleans 547 13-3
2011 New England 513 13-3
2010 New England 518 14-2
2009 New Orleans 510 13-3
2007 New England 589 16-0
2006 San Diego 492 14-2
2004 Indianapolis 522 12-4
2004 Kansas City 483 7-9
2003 Kansas City 484 13-3

Will the Cowboys be able to average 30+ points per game again in 2022? If they do, a playoff berth is a given. In fact, teams last year were 133-22 when scoring 30 points or more for a cool .858 winning percentage. Applying that winning percentage to a 17-game schedule gives you a 15-2 record.

And you know what doesn’t matter when you score 30 points per game? Your defense. Because there are not that many teams in the NFL that can keep pace with an offense that puts up 30+ points.

The narrative of how an offense can help a defense is often framed in terms of ‘time of possession’. The longer the offense is on the field, the “fresher” the defense is when it comes onto the field. But in and of itself, ‘time of possession’ is meaningless.

An offense protects a defense not so much by running the clock or limiting opponents’ plays, but by scoring points. Because this forces opposing offenses to play from behind, which in turn enables the defense to play perhaps more aggressively, perhaps more opportunistically, but ultimately more effectively.

Every year in Dallas there will be fans waiting for a return of the Doomsday Defense, or at least a reasonable facsimile of that defense. But today’s Cowboys are about as far removed from a Doomsday Defense as they can be, and that’s not an indictment in any form, it’s simply a fact. A fact that is clearly evident when you follow the money.

Per Spotrac.com, the Cowboys currently rank second in the NFL in percentage of 2022 cap dollars allocated to the offense, and just 31st for the defense. Special teams also ranks 31st, having to contend with a relative pittance in salary cap terms.

Every team in the NFL has to figure out which side of the ball it wants to emphasize more, and in Dallas it’s offense first, second, and third.

So why not expect them to average 30 points per game in 2022? They were specifically built to do just that, and barring injuries, there is no reason why the 2022 team should not be one of the top scoring offenses in the league once again.

Do you think the Cowboys will eclipse 30 points per game again in 2022?

Poll

Can Cowboys average 30+ points again in 2022?

This poll is closed

  • 37%
    You betcha!
    (437 votes)
  • 44%
    Maybe.
    (517 votes)
  • 16%
    No way!
    (186 votes)
  • 1%
    I’m an Eagles fan and I just want to mess with this poll.
    (22 votes)
1162 votes total Vote Now