Why the Cowboys offense should average over 30 points per game in 2022

Last season, the Cowboys eclipsed 30 points per game in a regular season for the first time since 1968, averaging 31.2 points over 17 games. In 2021, the Cowboys scored 30+ points in eight games for the third season in a row. Only twice in franchise history have the Cowboys scored 30+ points in more games. Once in 2014 (10 games), and once in 1983 (nine games). And 2007 was the only other season in which they had eight 30+ point games.

The Cowboys’ record over the last three years in games where they scored 30+ points: 21-3. If you’re looking for a shortcut to the playoffs, scoring 30+ points per game would be a convenient way.

Why fixate on those 30 points? Because since realignment in 2002, 29 teams have averaged more than 30 points per game (480 points per season until 2020, 520 points since 2021), and all but one of those teams made the playoffs.

Will the Cowboys be able to average 30+ points per game again in 2022? If they do, a playoff berth is a given. In fact, teams last year were 133-22 when scoring 30 points or more for a cool .858 winning percentage. Applying that winning percentage to a 17-game schedule gives you a 15-2 record.

And you know what doesn’t matter when you score 30 points per game? Your defense. Because there are not that many teams in the NFL that can keep pace with an offense that puts up 30+ points.

The narrative of how an offense can help a defense is often framed in terms of ‘time of possession’. The longer the offense is on the field, the “fresher” the defense is when it comes onto the field. But in and of itself, ‘time of possession’ is meaningless.

An offense protects a defense not so much by running the clock or limiting opponents’ plays, but by scoring points. Because this forces opposing offenses to play from behind, which in turn enables the defense to play perhaps more aggressively, perhaps more opportunistically, but ultimately more effectively.

Every year in Dallas there will be fans waiting for a return of the Doomsday Defense, or at least a reasonable facsimile of that defense. But today’s Cowboys are about as far removed from a Doomsday Defense as they can be, and that’s not an indictment in any form, it’s simply a fact. A fact that is clearly evident when you follow the money.

Per Spotrac.com, the Cowboys currently rank second in the NFL in percentage of 2022 cap dollars allocated to the offense, and just 31st for the defense. Special teams also ranks 31st, having to contend with a relative pittance in salary cap terms.

Every team in the NFL has to figure out which side of the ball it wants to emphasize more, and in Dallas it’s offense first, second, and third.

So why not expect them to average 30 points per game in 2022? They were specifically built to do just that, and barring injuries, there is no reason why the 2022 team should not be one of the top scoring offenses in the league once again.

Do you think the Cowboys will eclipse 30 points per game again in 2022?