Before the Cowboys played the Buccaneers last Sunday night, the odds for their next week’s game against the Bengals showed Dallas as a favorite (-2). Then Sunday night happened, a pitiful showing by the team coupled with losing Dak Prescott for an undetermined amount of time. Suddenly, the Cowboys were dogs, and not by a small amount. Dallas were 6.5 point underdogs in the initial odds. That number has fluctuated but our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook currently have Dallas at +7. (That number could change so make sure to check).
So how are people feeling about betting this game? For the most part, they are taking the Bengals to cover that spread.
Last week’s turnover-fest from Joe Burrow felt like an anomaly, albeit the Bengals had their work cut out for them against a strong Pittsburgh Steelers defense. Cincinnati’s offense should be much more balanced against the Cowboys, who could struggle to find the endzone with the loss of Dak Prescott. The Bengals should easily cover the spread in Week 2.
Pretty straightforward, taking the Bengals in a wipe out.
Cincinnati’s clearly set up for a bounce-back performance given they get to face Dallas without Prescott under center. The betting market has already factored in the adjustment from Prescott to Rush, as the spread has moved 9.5 points from opening. While Rush is a downgrade from Prescott, a 9.5-point adjustment might be too steep. Betting Cincinnati at its current price is a -EV move, as that ship has already sailed. Dallas has “no chance” to keep things close per the general consensus, but crazier things have happened in the NFL. Cincinnati gets to 1-1, covering the early numbers, but those who were late to the party suffer a bad beat as Dallas gets through the backdoor.
PREDICTION: Bengals 24, Cowboys 17. Dallas
This would push since DraftKings currently has the point spread at -7 for the Bengals.
Expect the Bengals to take away CeeDee Lamb (11 targets, two catches vs. the Bucs) and dare Rush to beat them with anyone else. Cowboys fans looking for a sliver of hope can take solace in the fact that since 2014, double-digit Week 1 losers are 25-16 against the spread (ATS) in Week 2. The market overreacts to the bad loss, and there’s value on the other side.
At the same time, since 2010, teams that lose in Week 1 and go on the road in Week 2 are just 36-56 ATS. Whenever it feels too easy, tread cautiously. The Bengals were favored by 6.5 points and lost outright to the Steelers; now they’re favored by a TD. They were favored only twice last season.
The pick here would be Cincinnati at -7, but the higher it creeps, the more my confidence goes down. And this might hit -8 by kickoff. But I can’t take the beat-up Cowboys here. It’s Bengals or pass, even on the road.
It’s a pretty big spread (Bengals -7) but it seems like people are feeling the Bengals in a blow out.
Some of the BTB writers took a shot at predicting the Cowboys and Bengals game, along with the rest of Week 2 in the NFL.
So who ya got BTB?