This season feels like the last ride for Jayron Kearse in Dallas

Veteran safety Jayron Kearse has been a standout player and leader for the Cowboys’ defense since arriving as a free agent in 2021. But due to a mix of circumstances, Kearse’s run in Dallas feels like it will probably end after this season.

Back in the 2021 offseason, Dallas went through a defensive overhaul. With the switch from Mike Nolan to Dan Quinn as coordinator came significant roster changes as well, and the safety position was foremost among them. Kearse was one of several additions; Malik Hooker, Damontae Kazee, and Keanu Neal (transitioning to linebacker) were all signed that offseason.

Coming out of a reserve role in his first five years with the Lions and Vikings, Kearse was an afterthought among these veteran free agents. Some questioned if he’d even make it through final cuts. But very quickly, Kearse not only proved to be the best of the bunch but emerged as one of the top defensive playmakers.

Quinn has always known how to get the most out of safeties in his defenses, making Pro Bowlers and even superstars between his stops in Seattle and Atlanta. But one way that Kearse has been especially highlighted in Dallas is a hybrid role that pulls him into a traditional linebacker’s position on passing downs. It gets Kearse closer to the action and allows him to use his strengths more frequently than if he was further out in pass defense.

With Malik Hooker also working out well from those 2021 free agents, as well as Donovan Wilson’s rise as an impact player, the Cowboys have enjoyed a strong trio of safeties the last few years. But while Hooker is signed through 2026 and Wilson through 2025, their older brother is set to become a free agent again after this season. And given the circumstances, it’s looking like Kearse won’t be back.

For one thing, Kearse turns 30 in February. He’s about two years older than Hooker and three older than Wilson, which quickly tells you why Dallas has given them the longer-term commitments. For a position dependent on speed and agility, especially when getting pulled into coverage, there isn’t much cushion for deteriorated athleticism.

There’s also the financial side of it. Kearse has been making $5 million per year on his current deal and could probably get that on the open market, if not more. While Dallas isn’t paying high dollar for any of its three safeties, it’s the budgetary balancing with the rest of the roster where it becomes an issue.

The Cowboys have some big contracts to figure out in the near future. QB Dak Prescott and WR CeeDee Lamb are both scheduled to be free agents after 2024. While moves are likely coming to reduce these figures, Prescott’s cap hit skyrockets from $26.8 million now to $59.4 million next year. Lamb jumps from a current $4.4 million hit to $17.9 million when he moves into that fifth-year option. There’s also Micah Parsons coming soon in what could be the richest defensive contract in NFL history.

These anticipated needs limit the ability for luxury elsewhere on the roster. Having three quality safeties could be seen as such a luxury, and especially when you’re having to pay them all as veterans.

If that wasn’t enough to seal Kearse’s fate, young players are already here who seem ready to fill the void. DeMarvion Overshown will hopefully return well from a preseason ACL injury for a key spot in the linebacker rotation next year. Markquese Bell, playing LB this year due to Overshown’s absence, has shined so far. He’s a natural heir to Kearse’s spot given his versatility. And Juanyeh Thomas, while more of a free safety, also keeps the position deep overall.

Of course, this could ultimately come down to how much Kearse wants to stay in Dallas and how much of a discount he’s willing to give back in return. But as a guy who’s never had a significant NFL windfall compared to his contemporaries, Kearse may want to maximize his earning potential while he’s still young enough to garner interest. If that’s the case, then it’s hard to see the Cowboys on the other end of his next contract.

It’s the tough side of the NFL and what the salary cap and roster limits impose. Jayron Kearse is the kind of guy you’d love to hang on to even in a lesser on-field role for what he brings to the locker room. But barring an unexpected shift in circumstances, it feels like a business decision is coming which will make 2023 Kearse’s last year in Dallas.