2023 Cowboys analytics roundup: Dallas is in a good spot as they prepare for 49ers

Never let it be said that the Cowboys don’t know how to wash the bad taste of a loss out of their mouths. After losing to the Cardinals on the road, the Cowboys returned to AT&T Stadium to absolutely smoke the Patriots. The 38-3 final score was the worst loss of Bill Belichick’s career.

That has fans everywhere once again feeling confident, and it couldn’t come at a better time with the 49ers up next on the schedule. So is all this confidence really real, and how do the Cowboys stack up against the team that’s ended their season each of the last two years? Let’s take a look at the analytics to get a clearer picture.

The headline is the Cowboys have moved up two spots from last week and are the fifth-most efficient team in the NFL by DVOA. They’re also the third-most efficient team in the NFC behind the 49ers and Lions, the latter of whom leapfrogged Dallas by jumping six spots in total team DVOA after throttling the Packers last week.

Looking at the Cowboys’ DAVE rankings, which combines their DVOA-based preseason expectations with their actual efficiency thus far, the team is mostly on track. According to the preseason expectations, Dallas should be third in total DVOA right now, and the biggest reason they’re not is the offense. We’ll have more on that in a moment, but that’s a solid spot to be in for the Cowboys.

The EPA-based team tiers are a little nicer to the Cowboys, placing them as the third best team in the NFL. Notably, they’re second in the NFC behind only the 49ers. As you can see on this chart, the 49ers have a better offense but the Cowboys have a better defense; of course, both teams are really, really good through the first four games of the year. This week’s matchup will certainly be appointment television.

Offense

Let’s talk offense. The Texas Coast offense has largely been a success so far, and Mike McCarthy’s return to calling plays has the team in pretty good position by most statistical categories. The Cowboys offense has scored the fourth most points thus far, with 53.8% of their drives resulting in points (third best in the NFL). They’re also inside the top 10 in all three EPA/play categories.

However, Dallas ranks 16th in DVOA and 17th in both run and pass DVOA. How does that make sense? It really boils down to the red zone offense, third worst in the league after four games. The beauty of DVOA compared to other advanced metrics is that it measures a team’s performance in context of each play; so a five-yard run on third and short is more valuable than a five-yard run on second and 15, for example.

To this end, an offense that gets into the red zone but only comes away with field goals is not very efficient by DVOA standards. The Cowboys have the most red zone appearances so far this year, but their 36.8% touchdown rate is terribly low. So the formula for DVOA recognizes those plays as very inefficient plays, even though the Cowboys are playing very efficient football to get to the red zone in the first place. Their EPA figures reflect an offense that moves the ball really well - and they do just that - but the DVOA numbers are reflecting an offense that doesn’t finish their drives, which they haven’t yet.

Dak Prescott had a great game against a very good Patriots defense. He posted a 83.2 QBR in this game, the fourth best mark for any quarterback in Week 4. To put that into perspective, the quarterbacks that faced the Patriots in the first three weeks averaged a 45.5 QBR; Tua Tagovailoa had the highest score at 78.6.

Prescott posted an outrageously good completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) as well, which brought up his total CPOE numbers on the year after a down game against the Cardinals.

The offensive line got Zack Martin and Tyler Biadasz back in the lineup and they were better off for it, to no one’s surprise. Prescott took three sacks on the day, with two of them attributed to the offensive line: one given up by backup left tackle Chuma Edoga and another by Terence Steele. This offensive line remains one of the best in pass protection, though Prescott’s 2.49 seconds per throw (fourth in the NFL) on the year is making their jobs a little easier.

Tyler Smith deserves special praise for two stellar performances thus far. He’s been his usual dominant self in the run game but Smith has shown noticeable growth in pass protection. After giving up the most pressures on the team last year, Smith has surrendered zero through two games.

Defense

The Dallas defense is back, putting on a clinic against a struggling Patriots offense. The Cowboys lead the league in the following categories:

• total defensive DVOA
• pass defense DVOA
• pass rush win rate
• EPA/dropback allowed
• total points allowed

There are a handful more categories where they rank second or third as well. This defense is playing great football, and the run defense has had three very good games around that lone Cardinals game. Of course, that aspect of their defense in particular will be put to the test against one of the more run-heavy offenses in the 49ers this week.

DaRon Bland’s second game taking over for Trevon Diggs went considerably better than his first. Bland was targeted a game-high eight times (Diggs was targeted eight times in two games) and only gave up four completions. He broke up one pass and, of course, intercepted two others, returning one for a score.

It’s not just Bland, though. Stephon Gilmore didn’t allow a single completion on his three targets last week, and Jourdan Lewis has the third-lowest passer rating allowed in the NFL when targeted in the slot. These cornerbacks have all flashed their immense ability, and they’ll need to be on their game against a ferocious 49ers offense this week.