Dak Prescott is playing tremendous football for the Dallas Cowboys right now. As this is the case, and as we are getting close and closer to the regular season winding down, very good play from the quarterback of an extremely visible team often translates into a couple of things. Namely the Most Valuable Player Award.
Let’s be very clear here and note that I am not saying that Dak is the MVP of the NFL season right now, but it is not farfetched to say that his name should be included in conversations around it.
For what it is worth though, oddsmakers do not seem to share this sentiment.
There are some incredibly low odds on Dak Prescott to win MVP this season
People like to say that Vegas always knows, and if they do then the Dak candidacy is in serious trouble.
On Wednesday, November 15th, when looking at the current odds to win MVP for this NFL season from our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook, you had to look down quite a bit to find Dak Prescott’s name.
Whether you think Dak is great or not is not really what we are talking about here. Prescott has incredibly low odds, almost the same as Tyreek Hill and worse than Christian McCaffrey, to win an award that is largely narrative-based.
The narrative of the MVP matters, which is why quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes are currently leading the way. MVP is often handed out to the best quarterback on the best team, and generally a quarterback who has never won it before, obviously there are some exceptions. But if you are interested in placing a wager it is fair to argue that Dak’s odds are rather enticing.
Prescott is playing like arguably the best quarterback in the NFL right now
Nobody hands out MVP awards in the middle of November, but in our present moment Prescott is playing some serious top-shelf football. We all know that things have changed rather dramatically for the Cowboys since they lost to the San Francisco 49ers. Since Week 7 (the very next week, the game against the Los Angeles Chargers), Dak is head and shoulders above the field.
Given that MVP is driven to a strong degree by narrative, if Prescott, the quarterback for America’s Team, were to continue this pace then it would stand to reason that his story might be the one most captivating in the eyes and minds of voters.
What is yet to come still matters greatly, but it is fair to believe that what the Cowboys are doing may have some staying power. It appears that Mike McCarthy strongly evaluated what did and did not work over the bye period as we have seen a large uptick in passing from his Texas Coast offense ever since.
The Cowboys have leaned into their passing game since their Week 7 bye, electing to pass +9.9% more often than expected given situational factors (1st in the NFL).— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 15, 2023
Dak Prescott leads the NFL in pass yards (1,082), TD (11) and EPA (+43.1) over that time frame.#DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/ZiJ89arNPK
Again, there is a lot of football still to be played across the NFL. But you would be hard pressed to find any objective arguments against Prescott as the best (or at least one of) quarterback in the NFL in our current moment. Given that this is the case, the extremely low odds for MVP not only do not make sense, but seem like a great opportunity to jump on.