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Week 12 NFC Points Against Average (PAA)

Introduction

I have taken the scoreboards for the NFL and averaged out each team's (in the NFC so far) Points Allowed and Points Scored. Then I compare teams to the average. For example, I look at the Cowboys' game against the Rams and average every other team's (not including the Cowboys) Points Scored and Points Allowed. The Rams Scored an average of 22.1 points and allowed an average of 20.1 points outside of the Cowboys game. Then, to find the PAA, I subtract the average from the Points Scored by the Cowboys and Points Allowed by the Cowboys. Since the Cowboys scored 43, the difference would be 22.9 points (43 -€” 20.1). For lack of a better term, I call this Offensive PAA, though it does not relate only to the offense. Then to find the Defensive PAA, I subtract the Points Allowed by the Cowboys from the average. In this case, 22.1 -€” 20 = 2.1. This way positive numbers are always a good indicator. The Offensive and Defensive PAAs are averaged together for the season and then added together to get the Total PAA.

Cowboys:

Giants

Jets

Cardinals

Patriots

49ers

Chargers

Rams

Eagles

Giants

Panthers

Commanders

Seahawks

Eagles

Bills

Dolphins

Lions

Commanders

AVG Pts allowed

20.3

20.8

27.7

21.0

16.0

23.8

19.1

22.3

20.3

25.9

27.7

22.6

22.3

18.9

22.8

23.5

27.7

AVG Pts Scored

14.2

15.3

16.2

14.5

26.8

25.2

21.2

28.2

14.2

17.0

21.5

20.8

28.2

27.3

30.8

26.7

21.5

Difference

-6.1

-5.5

-11.5

-6.5

10.8

1.4

2.1

5.9

-6.1

-8.9

-6.3

-1.8

5.9

8.4

8.0

3.3

-6.3

Pts above AVG

Giants

Jets

Cardinals

Patriots

49ers

Chargers

Rams

Eagles

Giants

Panthers

Commanders

Total

AVG

Sum

AVG Pts allowed

19.7

9.2

-11.7

17.0

-6.0

-3.8

23.9

0.7

28.7

7.1

17.3

102.0

9.3

11.9

AVG Pts Scored

14.2

5.3

-11.8

11.5

-15.2

8.2

1.2

0.2

-2.8

7.0

11.5

29.2

2.7

The Cowboys have been doing really well, especially the past few games. We have a game that should not be too difficult this coming week against the Seahawks, but after that, we have a rough stretch against the Eagles, Bills, and Dolphins. The Lions do not look too formidable, but they have been finding a way to win, much like the Eagles. Surprisingly, the Cowboys did slightly better on offense and defense against the Eagles even though they lost, and they did slightly worse at stopping the Giants from scoring mostly due to garbage time defense. In totality though, the last 5 games, the Cowboys have beat the average by 94.7 points. That is pretty crazy.

Eagles:

Patriots

Vikings

Buccaneers

Commanders

Rams

Jets

Dolphins

Commanders

Cowboys

Chiefs

Bills

49ers

Cowboys

Seahawks

Giants

Cardinals

Giants

AVG Pts allowed

22.3

18.9

20.2

27.8

21.1

22.4

22.0

27.8

15.7

16.0

17.3

15.5

15.7

22.6

24.3

26.8

24.3

AVG Pts Scored

12.8

21.4

20.1

18.4

21.8

14.3

32.2

18.4

32.4

23.9

26.7

28.2

32.4

20.8

13.3

17.2

13.3

Difference

-9.5

2.5

-0.1

-9.4

0.7

-8.1

10.2

-9.4

16.7

7.9

9.5

12.7

16.7

-1.8

-11.1

-9.6

-11.1

Pts above AVG

Patriots

Vikings

Buccaneers

Commanders

Rams

Jets

Dolphins

Commanders

Cowboys

Chiefs

Bills

Total

AVG

Sum

AVG Pts allowed

2.7

15.1

4.8

6.2

1.9

-8.4

9.0

10.2

12.3

5.0

19.7

78.5

7.1

6.8

AVG Pts Scored

-7.2

-6.6

9.1

-12.6

7.8

-5.7

15.2

-12.6

9.4

6.9

-7.3

-3.6

-0.3

The Eagles have skated by a lot of close games, but against the average, they are pretty good. They have already played a few good teams, but the hardest could be the next two weeks playing the 49ers and then the Cowboys at home. These two games are the Cowboys best chance at taking the division.

Giants:

Cowboys

Cardinals

49ers

Seahawks

Dolphins

Bills

Commanders

Jets

Raiders

Cowboys

Commanders

Patriots

Packers

Saints

Eagles

Rams

Eagles

AVG Pts allowed

18.7

26.4

15.8

24.6

23.5

19.8

30.5

22.8

22.7

18.7

30.5

23.8

20.4

19.5

22.4

21.3

22.4

AVG Pts Scored

28.7

16.2

28.0

20.5

30.8

28.5

22.0

15.0

15.6

28.7

22.0

14.1

21.0

21.5

28.2

21.1

28.2

Difference

10.0

-10.2

12.2

-4.1

7.3

8.7

-8.5

-7.8

-7.1

10.0

-8.5

-9.7

0.6

1.9

5.8

-0.2

5.8

Pts above AVG

Cowboys

Cardinals

49ers

Seahawks

Dolphins

Bills

Commanders

Jets

Raiders

Cowboys

Commanders

Patriots

Total

AVG

Sum

AVG Pts allowed

-18.7

4.6

-3.8

-21.6

-7.5

-10.8

-16.5

-12.8

-16.7

-1.7

0.5

-13.8

-118.7

-9.9

-11.7

AVG Pts Scored

-11.3

-11.8

-2.0

-3.5

-0.2

14.5

15.0

2.0

-14.4

-20.3

3.0

7.1

-21.9

-1.8

Well, what do you know, the Giants managed another win. They are no doubt one of the worst teams in the NFL, but at least they swept the Commanders.

Commanders:

Cardinals

Broncos

Bills

Eagles

Bears

Falcons

Giants

Eagles

Patriots

Seahawks

Giants

Cowboys

Dolphins

Rams

Jets

49ers

Cowboys

AVG Pts allowed

27.4

24.5

20.4

20.4

25.1

20.8

26.6

20.4

22.8

22.3

26.6

17.5

22.8

21.3

21.6

15.5

17.5

AVG Pts Scored

17.3

21.3

26.5

26.4

18.4

19.7

11.4

26.4

13.1

20.0

11.4

30.2

30.8

21.1

14.8

28.2

30.2

Difference

-10.1

-3.2

6.1

6.0

-6.7

-1.1

-15.2

6.0

-9.7

-2.3

-15.2

12.7

8.0

-0.2

-6.8

12.7

12.7

Pts above AVG

Cardinals

Broncos

Bills

Eagles

Bears

Falcons

Giants

Eagles

Patriots

Seahawks

Giants

Cowboys

Total

AVG

Sum

AVG Pts allowed

-7.4

10.5

-17.4

10.6

-5.1

3.2

-19.6

10.6

-2.8

3.7

-7.6

-7.5

-28.8

-2.4

-11.4

AVG Pts Scored

1.3

-11.7

-10.5

-7.6

-21.6

3.7

-2.6

-11.6

-3.9

-9.0

-19.6

-14.8

-107.9

-9.0

The Commanders have a shot at maybe getting another win over the Jets, but outside of that game, I think the season is over for the Commanders. Though it is close, the PAA scores say that the Commanders are just slightly better than the Giants, but I guess that is why they play the games.

Bonus Round: Seahawks

Seahawks

Rams

Lions

Panthers

Giants

Bengals

Cardinals

Browns

Ravens

Commanders

Rams

49ers

Cowboys

49ers

Eagles

Titans

Steelers

Cardinals

AVG Pts allowed

22.8

22.1

25.5

24.4

22.9

27.4

18.8

16.7

29.2

22.8

15.7

16.8

15.7

22.4

20.4

18.6

27.4

AVG Pts Scored

20.6

26.3

14.6

14.2

19.5

17.8

21.6

26.1

20.0

20.6

27.9

31.5`

27.9

28.2

16.8

16.5

17.8

Difference

-2.2

4.2

-10.9

-10.2

-3.4

-9.5

2.8

9.4

-9.2

-2.2

12.2

14.7

12.2

5.8

-3.5

-2.1

-9.5

Pts above AVG

Rams

Lions

Panthers

Giants

Bengals

Cardinals

Browns

Ravens

Commanders

Rams

49ers

Total

AVG

Sum

AVG Pts allowed

-9.8

14.9

11.5

-0.4

-9.9

-7.4

5.2

-13.7

-0.2

-6.8

-2.7

-19.2

-1.7

-3.6

AVG Pts Scored

-9.4

-4.7

-12.4

11.2

2.5

7.8

1.6

-10.9

-6.0

3.6

-3.1

-19.9

-1.8

The Seahawks are a below average team that has is just managing to squeak into the wild card race. The NFC is weak this year and that is the only reason these guys are hanging around. I get the feeling of the Giants or Vikings from last year. Realistically, they will likely lose the next 3 games, which may put them out of the playoff race.

NFC Rankings:

Team

Offense

Defense

Total

49ers

7.5

6.1

13.6

Cowboys

9.3

2.7

11.9

Eagles

7.1

-0.3

6.8

Lions

6.0

-3.4

2.6

Vikings

0.0

1.8

1.8

Falcons

3.8

-2.2

1.6

Buccaneers

-1.9

3.2

1.3

Packers

-1.1

1.2

0.0

Rams

-0.6

0.5

-0.1

Saints

-0.7

0.2

-0.5

Seahawks

-1.7

-1.8

-3.6

Bears

-4.1

-3.6

-7.7

Cardinals

-4.5

-5.4

-9.9

Panthers

-6.4

-3.7

-10.1

Commanders

-2.4

-9.0

-11.4

Giants

-9.9

-1.8

-11.7


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