## Week 12 NFC Points Against Average (PAA)

Introduction

I have taken the scoreboards for the NFL and averaged out each team's (in the NFC so far) Points Allowed and Points Scored. Then I compare teams to the average. For example, I look at the Cowboys' game against the Rams and average every other team's (not including the Cowboys) Points Scored and Points Allowed. The Rams Scored an average of 22.1 points and allowed an average of 20.1 points outside of the Cowboys game. Then, to find the PAA, I subtract the average from the Points Scored by the Cowboys and Points Allowed by the Cowboys. Since the Cowboys scored 43, the difference would be 22.9 points (43 - 20.1). For lack of a better term, I call this Offensive PAA, though it does not relate only to the offense. Then to find the Defensive PAA, I subtract the Points Allowed by the Cowboys from the average. In this case, 22.1 - 20 = 2.1. This way positive numbers are always a good indicator. The Offensive and Defensive PAAs are averaged together for the season and then added together to get the Total PAA.

Cowboys:

 Giants Jets Cardinals Patriots 49ers Chargers Rams Eagles Giants Panthers Commanders Seahawks Eagles Bills Dolphins Lions Commanders AVG Pts allowed 20.3 20.8 27.7 21.0 16.0 23.8 19.1 22.3 20.3 25.9 27.7 22.6 22.3 18.9 22.8 23.5 27.7 AVG Pts Scored 14.2 15.3 16.2 14.5 26.8 25.2 21.2 28.2 14.2 17.0 21.5 20.8 28.2 27.3 30.8 26.7 21.5 Difference -6.1 -5.5 -11.5 -6.5 10.8 1.4 2.1 5.9 -6.1 -8.9 -6.3 -1.8 5.9 8.4 8.0 3.3 -6.3
 Pts above AVG Giants Jets Cardinals Patriots 49ers Chargers Rams Eagles Giants Panthers Commanders Total AVG Sum AVG Pts allowed 19.7 9.2 -11.7 17.0 -6.0 -3.8 23.9 0.7 28.7 7.1 17.3 102.0 9.3 11.9 AVG Pts Scored 14.2 5.3 -11.8 11.5 -15.2 8.2 1.2 0.2 -2.8 7.0 11.5 29.2 2.7

The Cowboys have been doing really well, especially the past few games. We have a game that should not be too difficult this coming week against the Seahawks, but after that, we have a rough stretch against the Eagles, Bills, and Dolphins. The Lions do not look too formidable, but they have been finding a way to win, much like the Eagles. Surprisingly, the Cowboys did slightly better on offense and defense against the Eagles even though they lost, and they did slightly worse at stopping the Giants from scoring mostly due to garbage time defense. In totality though, the last 5 games, the Cowboys have beat the average by 94.7 points. That is pretty crazy.

Eagles:

 Patriots Vikings Buccaneers Commanders Rams Jets Dolphins Commanders Cowboys Chiefs Bills 49ers Cowboys Seahawks Giants Cardinals Giants AVG Pts allowed 22.3 18.9 20.2 27.8 21.1 22.4 22.0 27.8 15.7 16.0 17.3 15.5 15.7 22.6 24.3 26.8 24.3 AVG Pts Scored 12.8 21.4 20.1 18.4 21.8 14.3 32.2 18.4 32.4 23.9 26.7 28.2 32.4 20.8 13.3 17.2 13.3 Difference -9.5 2.5 -0.1 -9.4 0.7 -8.1 10.2 -9.4 16.7 7.9 9.5 12.7 16.7 -1.8 -11.1 -9.6 -11.1
 Pts above AVG Patriots Vikings Buccaneers Commanders Rams Jets Dolphins Commanders Cowboys Chiefs Bills Total AVG Sum AVG Pts allowed 2.7 15.1 4.8 6.2 1.9 -8.4 9.0 10.2 12.3 5.0 19.7 78.5 7.1 6.8 AVG Pts Scored -7.2 -6.6 9.1 -12.6 7.8 -5.7 15.2 -12.6 9.4 6.9 -7.3 -3.6 -0.3

The Eagles have skated by a lot of close games, but against the average, they are pretty good. They have already played a few good teams, but the hardest could be the next two weeks playing the 49ers and then the Cowboys at home. These two games are the Cowboys best chance at taking the division.

Giants:

 Cowboys Cardinals 49ers Seahawks Dolphins Bills Commanders Jets Raiders Cowboys Commanders Patriots Packers Saints Eagles Rams Eagles AVG Pts allowed 18.7 26.4 15.8 24.6 23.5 19.8 30.5 22.8 22.7 18.7 30.5 23.8 20.4 19.5 22.4 21.3 22.4 AVG Pts Scored 28.7 16.2 28.0 20.5 30.8 28.5 22.0 15.0 15.6 28.7 22.0 14.1 21.0 21.5 28.2 21.1 28.2 Difference 10.0 -10.2 12.2 -4.1 7.3 8.7 -8.5 -7.8 -7.1 10.0 -8.5 -9.7 0.6 1.9 5.8 -0.2 5.8
 Pts above AVG Cowboys Cardinals 49ers Seahawks Dolphins Bills Commanders Jets Raiders Cowboys Commanders Patriots Total AVG Sum AVG Pts allowed -18.7 4.6 -3.8 -21.6 -7.5 -10.8 -16.5 -12.8 -16.7 -1.7 0.5 -13.8 -118.7 -9.9 -11.7 AVG Pts Scored -11.3 -11.8 -2.0 -3.5 -0.2 14.5 15.0 2.0 -14.4 -20.3 3.0 7.1 -21.9 -1.8

Well, what do you know, the Giants managed another win. They are no doubt one of the worst teams in the NFL, but at least they swept the Commanders.

Commanders:

 Cardinals Broncos Bills Eagles Bears Falcons Giants Eagles Patriots Seahawks Giants Cowboys Dolphins Rams Jets 49ers Cowboys AVG Pts allowed 27.4 24.5 20.4 20.4 25.1 20.8 26.6 20.4 22.8 22.3 26.6 17.5 22.8 21.3 21.6 15.5 17.5 AVG Pts Scored 17.3 21.3 26.5 26.4 18.4 19.7 11.4 26.4 13.1 20.0 11.4 30.2 30.8 21.1 14.8 28.2 30.2 Difference -10.1 -3.2 6.1 6.0 -6.7 -1.1 -15.2 6.0 -9.7 -2.3 -15.2 12.7 8.0 -0.2 -6.8 12.7 12.7
 Pts above AVG Cardinals Broncos Bills Eagles Bears Falcons Giants Eagles Patriots Seahawks Giants Cowboys Total AVG Sum AVG Pts allowed -7.4 10.5 -17.4 10.6 -5.1 3.2 -19.6 10.6 -2.8 3.7 -7.6 -7.5 -28.8 -2.4 -11.4 AVG Pts Scored 1.3 -11.7 -10.5 -7.6 -21.6 3.7 -2.6 -11.6 -3.9 -9.0 -19.6 -14.8 -107.9 -9.0

The Commanders have a shot at maybe getting another win over the Jets, but outside of that game, I think the season is over for the Commanders. Though it is close, the PAA scores say that the Commanders are just slightly better than the Giants, but I guess that is why they play the games.

Bonus Round: Seahawks

 Seahawks Rams Lions Panthers Giants Bengals Cardinals Browns Ravens Commanders Rams 49ers Cowboys 49ers Eagles Titans Steelers Cardinals AVG Pts allowed 22.8 22.1 25.5 24.4 22.9 27.4 18.8 16.7 29.2 22.8 15.7 16.8 15.7 22.4 20.4 18.6 27.4 AVG Pts Scored 20.6 26.3 14.6 14.2 19.5 17.8 21.6 26.1 20.0 20.6 27.9 31.5` 27.9 28.2 16.8 16.5 17.8 Difference -2.2 4.2 -10.9 -10.2 -3.4 -9.5 2.8 9.4 -9.2 -2.2 12.2 14.7 12.2 5.8 -3.5 -2.1 -9.5
 Pts above AVG Rams Lions Panthers Giants Bengals Cardinals Browns Ravens Commanders Rams 49ers Total AVG Sum AVG Pts allowed -9.8 14.9 11.5 -0.4 -9.9 -7.4 5.2 -13.7 -0.2 -6.8 -2.7 -19.2 -1.7 -3.6 AVG Pts Scored -9.4 -4.7 -12.4 11.2 2.5 7.8 1.6 -10.9 -6.0 3.6 -3.1 -19.9 -1.8

The Seahawks are a below average team that has is just managing to squeak into the wild card race. The NFC is weak this year and that is the only reason these guys are hanging around. I get the feeling of the Giants or Vikings from last year. Realistically, they will likely lose the next 3 games, which may put them out of the playoff race.

NFC Rankings:

 Team Offense Defense Total 49ers 7.5 6.1 13.6 Cowboys 9.3 2.7 11.9 Eagles 7.1 -0.3 6.8 Lions 6.0 -3.4 2.6 Vikings 0.0 1.8 1.8 Falcons 3.8 -2.2 1.6 Buccaneers -1.9 3.2 1.3 Packers -1.1 1.2 0.0 Rams -0.6 0.5 -0.1 Saints -0.7 0.2 -0.5 Seahawks -1.7 -1.8 -3.6 Bears -4.1 -3.6 -7.7 Cardinals -4.5 -5.4 -9.9 Panthers -6.4 -3.7 -10.1 Commanders -2.4 -9.0 -11.4 Giants -9.9 -1.8 -11.7

Another user-created commentary provided by a BTB reader.