Analyzing the value of a potential CeeDee Lamb contract extension with the Cowboys

Coming off his strongest season of his career in 2022, star wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is in line for a contract extension with the Dallas Cowboys. While he is currently still serving his rookie contract with the team, the organization did pick up his fifth-year option back in April, keeping him in Dallas at least through the 2024 season. In 2023, Lamb is expected to count just $4.45 million on the team’s cap, while having a $2.52 million base salary. If Lamb plays on his fifth-year option in 2024, the wide receiver will count $17.99 million on the cap. However, the team has not been shy about their interest in signing him to a contract extension before then. This could possibly happen as soon as this summer.

Executive Vice President Stephen Jones expressed the desire to reach a contract offer with Lamb in April on a segment on 105.3 The Fan:

We’ve historically signed a lot of guys during that training camp period to extensions. But guys like CeeDee Lamb and [Trevon] Diggs are certainly on our radar in terms of guys that we’d love to have around here for another five, six years, whatever that turns out to be.”

The Athletic’s Jon Machota is projecting the Cowboys to offer Lamb a contract within the range of $25-30 million per season. While this is simply a projection and not a report, it is interesting to consider the value that the Cowboys should be investing into their star wide receiver.

The top 10 highest-paid receivers all make at least $20 million per season. The top five average at least $24 million per season. Miami’s Tyreek Hill is the highest-paid at $30 million per year over four years. Look for Lamb’s next deal to pay him in the $25 million to $30 million per year range.

When looking at this chart of the league’s highest-paid wide receivers, this projection makes sense for Lamb. Image from Spotrac.com

Lamb still has a lot to prove before he should be mentioned in the same conversation as the top three on this list. Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Cooper Kupp have all proved they belong in a separate tier in the wide receiver discussion. However, Lamb statistically has an argument with the rest of these players on the list.

It also is no secret that when a star player gets a new contract, he does better than what the market already is. When Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson receives his new contract with the team, he will certainly become the league’s highest-paid wide receiver. One could argue that this adds even more pressure for the Cowboys to extend Lamb before the market gets reset.

Lamb has yet to accumulate less than 900 receiving yards in the three seasons he has spent with the team. Each of his major statistical categories have improved each year as well.

At just 24 years old, Lamb is undoubtedly an elite caliber wide receiver in the NFL. He has a long future ahead of him, and likely has not reached his peak yet as a pass-catcher. The Cowboys should do whatever they can to get him re-signed as soon as they can.