Over/Under: 10.5 interceptions for Cowboys’ Dak Prescott in 2023

When it comes to conversations regarding Dak Prescott this offseason, the main focal point of discussion is often about his interception woes from last season. It comes with the territory when you’re the starting QB for the Dallas Cowboys, and despite his turnover rate in 2023 being more the exception than the rule in Dak’s career, recency bias and the unrelenting microscope the Cowboys find themselves under doesn’t leave much room for nuanced conversation on the matter.

For the sake of discussion let’s set the over/under bar at 10.5 interceptions for the year and let’s try and see where Dak and the rest of his career may go.

History would tell you the odds of Dak duplicating his struggles from last season are slim as he’s thrown eleven or more interceptions in a season three times in seven years, with his previous high prior to last season being 13 in his second year as a professional.

Dak has thrown a total of 65 interceptions in seven seasons compared to someone who is widely viewed by the masses as superior to him in Josh Allen, who has thrown 60 in five seasons. The interceptions don’t tell the whole story for Allen and it shouldn’t for Dak either, but the standard and the microscope is certainly different for the two players.

There were many issues with the Cowboys offense despite playing at high levels at times last season, and that may have played a factor in the increased number. Some of those problems were identified with the intention of rectifying them in 2023. For starters, Dak would be the first to tell you he has to be better and that’s the leader in him. However there was a talent deficiency at wide receiver position that forced Dak to play more aggressively than he may have wanted too. Couple that with some questionable passing-game schemes from former coordinator Kellen Moore, and things were not always made that easy for the QB to get through his progression and trust the players around him to make the decisions they needed to be successful.

But you have to also question - what if this is the beginning of a pattern? Interceptions weren’t a part of Dak’s DNA to this point, but what if they are now? We cannot begin to get this answer until the season commences. If this blip in his career becomes the norm, the Cowboys will be in serious trouble going forward.

The Cowboys have a roster built to win now, with Mike McCarthy looking to make the offense more efficient with an influx of talent at the wide receiver and tight end position. If Dak is unable to shake off the mistake filled football from 2022 with this new configuration, this window could shut as fast as it opened and could change the narrative about Dak in a negative light, justifiably so.

2023 feels like a make or break year for Dak, and while interceptions are not the end-all, be-all for high-level QB play, resetting his turnover numbers and controlling that element of his game feels like a good starter for better overall performance for him and the offense.

So what says you Cowboys Nation? Do you see Dak Prescott being better and being under 10.5 interceptions or do we see a pattern forming and he ends up north of that number?