Cowboys ranked with third-best odds to return to the playoffs

The Dallas Cowboys are being counted on to make the playoffs again in 2023. That’s not much of a stretch after they turned in two consecutive 12-5 seasons, and bolstered their roster in the offseason. The Cowboys retained most of their important free agents, and added Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore.

ESPN recently ranked all 14 teams that made last year’s playoffs by their chances of making the 2023 tournament (shoutout Bill Parcells). The Kansas City Chiefs were first, followed by the Philadelphia Eagles. In third were the Cowboys.

3. Dallas Cowboys

Why they’re No. 3: They have a high floor.

FPI actually rated the Cowboys as the league’s best team before their ugly Week 18 loss to the Commanders. Dallas then produced one of the most impressive performances of the year in stomping the Buccaneers before losing (in particularly Cowboys fashion) to the 49ers in the divisional round.

Dallas had the fifth-best point differential in the league, which speaks to its floor on both sides of the football. Dak Prescott’s interception rate is likely to regress back toward his career mean, which was the only real blemish on the offense for most of last season. Dan Quinn’s defense ranks fourth in the NFL in points per possession allowed over the past two seasons. Even acknowledging that Mike McCarthy is unlikely to improve the offense, the Cowboys are well positioned to be a top-10 unit on both sides of the ball in 2023.

If anything, there might be a case that the Cowboys should be neck and neck with or even ahead of the Eagles as we head into the season. While the Jalen Hurts extension forced Philadelphia to make cutbacks on the defensive side of the ball, Dallas went through its own messy cap situation a year ago and was able to invest more this offseason. It moved on from Ezekiel Elliott and let Dalton Schultz leave in free agency, but it added impact veterans Stephon Gilmore and Brandin Cooks. In a conference with so many teams that have an obvious flaw on one side of the ball, the Cowboys’ solidity on offense and defense makes them appealing.

That’s fair. The Cowboys should be able to make the playoffs with the roster they have assembled. Anything less would be a huge disappointment.

What percentage would you put on the Cowboys making the 2023 playoffs?