Week 3 of the regular season is here. Today we take a look at this week’s slate from a gambling standpoint and give you some of our best picks.
All lines/odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Three Straight Plays
1) Atlanta Falcons +3 (-110) at Detroit Lions ⭐️BEST BET⭐️
The Atlanta Falcons are one of the most surprising 2-0 teams in the league. Atlanta has beaten the Panthers and Packers to kick off their season, looking good on both sides of the ball in each matchup.
In last week’s win over the Packers, the Falcons started the fourth quarter trailing 24-12. Atlanta’s offense scored a touchdown with a little over 11 minutes left in the game, followed by two field goals, one of which was the game-winner by Younghoe Koo.
The Falcons’ offense has been lifted by rookie running Bijan Robinson’s fantastic start to his career. Two games in, the rookie has totaled 180 rushing yards on 29 carries, averaging 6.2 Y/A, and has rushed for 11 first downs. The Falcons led the league in rush EPA 0.054, and Robinson is the reason why.
This week, Atlanta goes up against a Lions team that was one of the worst rush defenses in football last season. Detroit gave up over 150 rushing yards last season seven times, and while they have added some talent to their defense they still are not great against the run.
I expect Atlanta to lean on Robinson and their rushing attack to sustain some long drives and keep the ball out of Jared Goff’s hands. The line for this game has moved in the Falcons’ favor, making me even more confident in the pick. I’d take the Falcons +3 and take a shot at them on the money line as well.
2) Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks -5.5 (-110)
Coming off a big win over the Lions, the 1-1 Seattle Seahawks have another home matchup as they play host to the Carolina Panthers. Carolina has lost both of their first two games and will be without their rookie quarterback Bryce Young this Sunday after he suffered an ankle injury in their Week 2 matchup.
Carolina will start veteran quarterback Andy Dalton in Young’s place. Carolina’s offense has scored the third-fewest (27) points in the league this season and inserting Dalton for Young will only make their offense struggle even more.
On the flip side, Seattle’s defense has gotten off to a terrible start to the year. Seattle has surrendered 61 points, the fourth most in football, giving up 30 in Week 1 and 31 in Week 2. They have not looked good at all, but this is a perfect bounce-back spot for Seattle’s defense against a not-so-talented offense.
At home, I trust Seattle to cover the spread in this one. Take the Seahawks -5.5.
3)Buffalo Bills at Washington Commanders OVER 43.5 (-108)
I expect to see some fireworks in this matchup between the Bills and Commanders. Buffalo’s offense got back on track in a big way last Sunday, recording 450 total yards of offense and 38 points in a win over the Raiders.
The Commanders’ offense also played extremely well in Week 2, totaling 388 yards on offense and scoring 35 points in a win over the Broncos.
I don’t think the Commanders have enough talent on the outside to slow down Buffalo’s offense and I see both teams staying hot on the offensive side of the ball. I think the Bills pull away at the end and win something like 31-24. Take the over here.
Three-Team Parlay of The Week
-Buffalo Bills ML/New England Patriots ML/Cleveland Browns ML (+265)
The Bills will be able to move the ball against the Commanders’ defense and should be able to hit some deep shots down the field giving them the advantage. The Patriots just own the Jets and there is no way I’m betting on Zach Wilson. The Browns did not look great last week, but the Titans will be without lineman Peter Skoronski on Sunday so Cleveland should be able to get some pressure on Ryan Tannehill and disrupt the Titans’ offense.
Dallas Cowboys (-12.5) at Arizona Cardinals O/U = 43
The Pick: Dallas Cowboys -6.5 + Joshua Dobbs OVER 0.5 Interceptions (+102)
Josh Dobbs leads the NFL with six interceptable passes, and is second in the league with eight danger plays, via Player Profiler. Dallas is going to put tons of pressure on Dobbs and it will result in multiple turnovers. The Cowboys should easily be able to cover the 6.5-point spread making this a good value play at +102.
Player Props of The Week
1) Josh Allen OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (-120)
2) Josh Allen OVER 250.5 passing yards (-115)
3) Jaylen Waddle anytime TD scorer (+115)
4) Bijan Robinson anytime TD scorer (-105)
5) Trevor Lawrence OVER 13.5 rushing yards (-115)
6) Justin Fields anytime TD scorer (+165)