Cowboys vs Lions: Writer predictions for last game before the bye

The Cowboys have just one more game to play before they get to their bye week, though it will be far from easy. The Lions come to town for the third year in a row, and they’re looking for their first win over the Cowboys in that stretch. Dan Campbell has his Lions playing well, sitting at 3-1 and riding a two-game winning streak. They’re the favorites in this one too, but do our writers agree with that? Let’s take a look.

When Detroit has the ball

Affect Jared Goff

Jared Goff has been off to a great start this season, picking up where he left off last season. Coming into this game, he ranks fourth in completion rate, fourth in yards per attempt, and 11th in EPA/dropback. However, the Lions’ lone loss on the year also featured a terrible game from Goff, in which he threw two interceptions and zero touchdowns.

Coincidentally, that was the game where Goff saw his highest pressure rate this year. Detroit’s offensive line has been very good - they’re just outside the top 10 in pressure rate allowed - but Goff has been at his worst when he is under pressure, with his passer rating dropping from 104.4 to 70.3, a precipitous dropoff. Pressuring Goff won’t be easy, especially without Micah Parsons, but making Goff uncomfortable is the key to unraveling an otherwise very efficient offense.

When Dallas has the ball

Keep feeding Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott has been on a heater lately. Over the last two weeks, Prescott is fifth in EPA/dropback, fourth in CPOE, and third in success rate. And that’s all in spite of him turning it over three times against the Steelers, twice in the red zone.

Now he faces a Lions defense that has struggled against the pass, and largely because of their inability to get to the quarterback. Aidan Hutchinson is having a phenomenal year, but the Lions still rank 24th in sack rate and 28th in pressure rate, which is a big reason why they’re giving up the sixth-most pass yards per game. The Cowboys are giving up the second-lowest rate of pressures right now, and Prescott is second among quarterbacks in both big time throws and touchdown passes when working with a clean pocket. Put the ball in Prescott’s hands this week and good things should happen.

Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers...

Tom Ryle (2-3):

This is the toughest test of the season so far, and the way the schedule falls does the Cowboys no favors. The one thing that might work in their favor is that Dallas dug deep to pull out last week’s win. They will have to do it again, but I fear the Lions are just too much this time.

I think Detroit prevails 31-20.

Matt Holleran (2-3):

I think this week’s matchup is going to be one of the more exciting games of the regular season. Both offenses are going to be able to put up points and there should be plenty of fireworks on both sides. In the end, I trust Dak Prescott to make more plays than Jared Goff. Dallas’ signal-caller will be the difference as the Cowboys get a big-time win heading into the bye week.

Give me the Cowboys in a shootout, 33-30.

Jess Haynie (3-2):

The fan in me wants to believe, but the realist says that the Cowboys aren’t going to catch the Lions sleeping. Detroit has to worry about keeping pace with the 5-0 Vikings in their own division, plus they have plenty of incentive to beat Dallas for the first time since 2013. The Cowboys are getting some respect as only +3 underdogs and there’s good potential for a close game, but Detroit is built to exploit Dallas’ well-established weaknesses.

I’ll say Lions 31, Cowboys 23.

Brandon Loree (2-3)

The Cowboys have a rough road ahead of them if Eric Kendricks and Nick Vigil are out for Sunday’s game. That means all the pressure will be on Dallas’ young linebackers, DeMarvion Overshown, Damone Clark, and Marist Liufau. The Lions’ rushing offense is their most dangerous weapon, led by David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit’s rushing success rate is 50.4 percent, which means they’re generating positive EPA per rush on more than half of their rushes.

The Cowboys have been able to clamp down on the opposing rushing attack over two weeks, which is a step in the right direction, but will it be enough? Even though they’re on a two-game win streak, the Cowboys don’t have the health to compete with the Lions right now.

Detroit wins 28-23.

Mike Poland (3-2):

The Cowboys are on a six-game winning streak against the Lions. In fact, in the last ten games between the two teams, Dallas has won eight. The Lions rank fourth-best at stopping the run, where the Cowboys offense ranks second-worst in rush yards per game.

Where the Cowboys excel is in the passing game where they rank second-best. The problem facing the Lions is the defense is so heavily predicated on stopping the run it ranks sixth-worst in defending against the pass. This falls perfectly into the Cowboys plan.

Cowboys win at home, 27-21.

Dana Bartholomew (2-3):

I do see a path for the Cowboys to win this game against the Lions. That would require building off of the positives from the Steelers game, limiting the mistakes, and possibly getting some help from the over-aggressiveness of Dan Campbell.

However, as it stands right now, this Lions team is better. They are healthier and they are one of the better rushing teams in the league. They are also coming in with a huge chip on their shoulder having lost the last six match ups against the Cowboys. Unfortunately, that may be too much for a depleted Cowboys team to overcome.

I think the Lions snag this one, 30-27.

Brian Martin (2-3):

Several injuries to key players, nonexistent home-field advantage, and facing a team who is healthy and rested coming off their bye week seems like too much for the Dallas Cowboys to overcome this week. On top of that, the Detroit Lions will be looking to extract a little bit of revenge in this matchup after the way things played out between the two last year.

Give me Detroit this week, 26-16.

Chris Halling (1-4):

As much as I’d love to pick the Cowboys, the Lions are a mismatch. Their dual threat in the backfield of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will give the Cowboys problems. The ultimate x-factor will be Jameson Williams, who will take the top off the defense in a similar way Rashid Shaheed did in week 2.

I’ll take the Lions in a high-scoring affair, 38-28.

RJ Ochoa (4-1):

I think that we are all willing and able to acknowledge that this Dallas Cowboys team is flawed, but has potential to do something special (using that word rather loosely). That being said it just seems like they are building the plane as they fly so to speak and that this is nowhere near being a finished product, if it ever is to be. On the other hand the Lions are a fighter jet that is flying fast enough to break the sound barrier. I can’t in good consciousness pick the Cowboys in this spot.

Give me Detroit in a game that is not as close as the final score makes it seem, something like 34-30.

David Howman (3-2):

Those who follow me on social media know I’m a Day One believer in Dan Campbell, and I lobbied hard for him to be the head coach in Dallas before Mike McCarthy was hired. So it’s been vindicating to see him turn the Lions, of all franchises, into a legitimate contender in the NFC.

That said, I just don’t see this game going well for them. I expect the Lions offense to break off a few nice drives - Jameson Williams should get one or two big plays, and I’m not sure Dallas has an answer for Amon-Ra St. Brown - but their defense shouldn’t stand a chance against this Cowboys offense. I expect a shootout, and in that scenario I’m siding with the better quarterback. And that is, with all due respect to Jared Goff, not even a competition.

Cowboys win 38-34.