Mock draft database: What 40 mocks tell us about the first round for the Cowboys

Free agency has slowed down to less than a trickle, so it’s time to turn our attention to the very serious business of mock drafting. On the hypothesis that the predictive value of multiple mock drafts is greater than that of a single mock, we are taking a survey of 40 different mock drafts today, hoping for some insight about how the first round could play out for the Cowboys

It’s no secret that the Cowboys are in the market for help along the offensive line, and the 40 mocks reflect that: 35 out of 40 mocks have the Cowboys picking an offensive lineman. But which one?

We’ll kick off this exercise with a rundown of all 40 mocks, and which player they have the Cowboys selecting.

40 mocks are obviously a lot to take in, so here’s a condensed version that’s also easier to read:

Jackson Powers-Johnson is the Cowboys pick in 10 out of 40 mocks. But is that because he’s the best possible pick for the Cowboys, or is it simply because the Cowboys have a hole at center and the mock drafters collected here like to plug those holes in their mocks? Same question for Graham Barton, another center who’s mocked to the Cowboys four times.

Tyler Guyton and Amarius Mims are the two tackles most often picked for the Cowboys. I have a very high opinion of Mims, but would he be a good pick at No. 24? There are a bunch of linemen available in the first round, and it feels like where each one ranks changes from day to day, as Daniel Jeremiah explains.

You can look up the OT ranking on your favorite big board, you can make up your own ranking, and you could even use a consensus big board to figure out such a ranking. Or we could look at the average draft position for each lineman based on the 40 mocks above, which is exactly what you see in the table below (For players not included in the top 32, I used the 35th spot to calculate the average draft position).

This gives us a good idea of where the mock draft public has the players ranked. There are arguably five blue-chip prospects among these linemen: Joe Alt never dropped below #8 in these mocks. Taliese Fuaga and Olu Fashanu rarely made it past the early teens, and JC Latham and Troy Fautanu are a staple in the late teens.

Jackson Powers-Johnson and Amarius Mims look like mid-twenty prospects that could make sense for the Cowboys, even if we have no idea what the Cowboys draft board looks like.

Barton, Guyton, and Morgan look like options at the end of the first round, at least if these mocks are anything to go by.

Our collection of mocks also allows us to figure out the likelihood with which any of these players drop all the way to the Cowboys pick. Here’s a summary table of how often each player was available at pick 24:

As enticing as it would be to grab one of the top five guys, the odds of them dropping to #24 are pretty slim. But nobody thought CeeDee Lamb would drop as far as he did, so there is always that. Still, it might be worth considering what to do if the draft just doesn’t fall the right way for the Cowboys to draft an offensive lineman in the first round.

The 40 mocks also give us an early clue of what could happen if the Cowboys don’t pick an offensive lineman: three mocks have the Cowboys picking a wide receiver, one has them taking an edge rusher, and one has them doubling down on a defensive tackle for the second year in a row.

Adding those three positions as potential first-round targets for the Cowboys opens many more options for what could happen on draft day. Here’s a collection of 18 players (10 OL, 8 “others”) and how often each player was taken at which spot in the 40 mocks:

Within the narrow confines of this list, that gives the Cowboys three main options, all of them based on the way the 40 mocks collectively predict the first round will play out.

Option 1: Pick an offensive lineman at #24 and be done with it. With a bit of luck, the Cowboys may get one of the Top 5 guys if one of them falls far enough. If not, there are still enticing OL options in the mid twenties.

Option 2: A run on the OL leaves the Cowboys without a good OL prospect at 24. But such an early run could force some other Top 15 prospects to fall the Cowboys’ way.

Jared Verse surprisingly makes it to #24 in six mocks, Laiatu Latu is there almost half the time, and Chop Robinson is available in 85% of the mocks. Any of them would help fill the hole left by the departures of Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler, and it would set up the Cowboys for a time after DeMarcus Lawrence.

Alternatively, the Cowboys could look at wide receiver. Brian Thomas is all over the place in these mocks, but makes it to #24 in nine mocks, so he might be an option if he falls far enough. Outside of Thomas, the Cowboys can likely take their pick from among Adonai Mitchell, Xavier Worthy, or Ladd McKonkey.

And finally, there is a 7-in-40 chance DT Byron Murphy is available at #24.

Option 3. Trade down. If we assume a tradedown to 30, the pickings become slim, as the table below shows.

There’s a good chance OTs Jordan Morgan and Kingsley Suamataiais (official pre-draft visit with Cowboys confirmed) are still available along with WRs Xavier Worthy and Ladd McConkey. Plus a ton of players with a second-round grade, of course.

There’s also an outside chance Amarius Mims, Graham Barton, or Tyler Guyton could still be available for a Travis-Frederick-style tradedown, but don’t bet on it.

Again, all of this is based on the aggregation of the 40 mock drafts. If you don’t like where players are ranked, do the same exercise with your favorite big board and report back in the comments.

Tell us in the attached poll or in the comments which of the three options you would prefer.